Daily Papers

Sliding Window Sum algorithms have been successfully used for training and inference of Deep Neural Networks. We have shown before how both pooling and convolution 1-D primitives could be expressed as sliding sums and evaluated by the compute kernels with a shared structure. In this paper, we present an extensive study of the Sliding Window convolution technique as a more efficient alternative to the commonly used General Matrix Multiplication (GEMM) based convolution in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). The Sliding Window technique addresses the memory bloating problem and demonstrates a significant speedup in 2-D convolution. We explore the performance of this technique on a range of implementations, including custom kernels for specific filter sizes. Our results suggest that the Sliding Window computation kernels can outperform GEMM-based convolution on a CPU and even on dedicated hardware accelerators. This could promote a wider adoption of AI on low-power and low-memory devices without the need for specialized hardware. We also discuss the compatibility of model compression methods and optimized network architectures with the Sliding Window technique, encouraging further research in these areas.

While recent advances in reasoning models have demonstrated cognitive behaviors through reinforcement learning, existing approaches struggle to invoke deep reasoning capabilities in multi-turn agents with long-horizon interactions. We propose DeepMiner, a novel framework that elicits such abilities by introducing high-difficulty training tasks and dynamic context window. DeepMiner presents a reverse construction method to generate complex but verifiable question-answer pairs from authentic web sources, which ensures the challenge and reliability of training data while injecting cognitive capabilities into multi-turn reasoning scenarios. We further design an elegant yet effective dynamic context management strategy for both training and inference, utilizing sliding window mechanisms while eliminating the dependency on external summarization models, thereby efficiently empowering the model to handle continuously expanding long-horizon contexts. Through reinforcement learning on Qwen3-32B, we develop DeepMiner-32B, which achieves substantial performance improvements across multiple search agent benchmarks. DeepMiner attains 33.5% accuracy on BrowseComp-en, surpassing the previous best open-source agent by almost 20 percentage points, and demonstrates consistent improvements on BrowseComp-zh, XBench-DeepSearch, and GAIA. Notably, our dynamic context management enables sustained interactions of nearly 100 turns within standard 32k context length, effectively addressing the context limitations that constrain existing multi-turn interaction systems.

We introduce LOCORE, Long-Context Re-ranker, a model that takes as input local descriptors corresponding to an image query and a list of gallery images and outputs similarity scores between the query and each gallery image. This model is used for image retrieval, where typically a first ranking is performed with an efficient similarity measure, and then a shortlist of top-ranked images is re-ranked based on a more fine-grained similarity measure. Compared to existing methods that perform pair-wise similarity estimation with local descriptors or list-wise re-ranking with global descriptors, LOCORE is the first method to perform list-wise re-ranking with local descriptors. To achieve this, we leverage efficient long-context sequence models to effectively capture the dependencies between query and gallery images at the local-descriptor level. During testing, we process long shortlists with a sliding window strategy that is tailored to overcome the context size limitations of sequence models. Our approach achieves superior performance compared with other re-rankers on established image retrieval benchmarks of landmarks (ROxf and RPar), products (SOP), fashion items (In-Shop), and bird species (CUB-200) while having comparable latency to the pair-wise local descriptor re-rankers.

Speculative decoding is a technique to leverage hardware concurrency to improve the efficiency of large-scale autoregressive (AR) Transformer models by enabling multiple steps of token generation in a single forward pass. State-space models (SSMs) are already more efficient than AR Transformers, since their state summarizes all past data with no need to cache or re-process tokens in the sliding window context. However, their state can also comprise thousands of tokens; so, speculative decoding has recently been extended to SSMs. Existing approaches, however, do not leverage the tree-based verification methods, since current SSMs lack the means to compute a token tree efficiently. We propose the first scalable algorithm to perform tree-based speculative decoding in state-space models (SSMs) and hybrid architectures of SSMs and Transformer layers. We exploit the structure of accumulated state transition matrices to facilitate tree-based speculative decoding with minimal overhead to current SSM state update implementations. With the algorithm, we describe a hardware-aware implementation that improves naive application of AR Transformer tree-based speculative decoding methods to SSMs. Furthermore, we outperform vanilla speculative decoding with SSMs even with a baseline drafting model and tree structure on three different benchmarks, opening up opportunities for further speed up with SSM and hybrid model inference. Code will be released upon paper acceptance.

Linearizing pretrained large language models (LLMs) primarily relies on intra-layer hybrid attention mechanisms to alleviate the quadratic complexity of standard softmax attention. Existing methods perform token routing based on sliding-window partitions, resulting in position-based selection and fails to capture token-specific global importance. Meanwhile, linear attention further suffers from distribution shift caused by learnable feature maps that distort pretrained feature magnitudes. Motivated by these limitations, we propose STILL, an intra-layer hybrid linearization framework for efficiently linearizing LLMs. STILL introduces a Self-Saliency Score with strong local-global consistency, enabling accurate token selection using sliding-window computation, and retains salient tokens for sparse softmax attention while summarizing the remaining context via linear attention. To preserve pretrained representations, we design a Norm-Preserved Feature Map (NP-Map) that decouples feature direction from magnitude and reinjects pretrained norms. We further adopt a unified training-inference architecture with chunk-wise parallelization and delayed selection to improve hardware efficiency. Experiments show that STILL matches or surpasses the original pretrained model on commonsense and general reasoning tasks, and achieves up to a 86.2% relative improvement over prior linearized attention methods on long-context benchmarks.

We introduce Voxtral Realtime, a natively streaming automatic speech recognition model that matches offline transcription quality at sub-second latency. Unlike approaches that adapt offline models through chunking or sliding windows, Voxtral Realtime is trained end-to-end for streaming, with explicit alignment between audio and text streams. Our architecture builds on the Delayed Streams Modeling framework, introducing a new causal audio encoder and Ada RMS-Norm for improved delay conditioning. We scale pretraining to a large-scale dataset spanning 13 languages. At a delay of 480ms, Voxtral Realtime achieves performance on par with Whisper, the most widely deployed offline transcription system. We release the model weights under the Apache 2.0 license.

Institutional investors have been increasing the allocation of the illiquid alternative assets such as private equity funds in their portfolios, yet there exists a very limited literature on cash flow forecasting of illiquid alternative assets. The net cash flow of private equity funds typically follow a J-curve pattern, however the timing and the size of the contributions and distributions depend on the investment opportunities. In this paper, we develop a benchmark model and present two novel approaches (direct vs. indirect) to predict the cash flows of private equity funds. We introduce a sliding window approach to apply on our cash flow data because different vintage year funds contain different lengths of cash flow information. We then pass the data to an LSTM/ GRU model to predict the future cash flows either directly or indirectly (based on the benchmark model). We further integrate macroeconomic indicators into our data, which allows us to consider the impact of market environment on cash flows and to apply stress testing. Our results indicate that the direct model is easier to implement compared to the benchmark model and the indirect model, but still the predicted cash flows align better with the actual cash flows. We also show that macroeconomic variables improve the performance of the direct model whereas the impact is not obvious on the indirect model.

Modern autoregressive models rely on attention, yet the Softmax full attention in Transformers scales quadratically with sequence length. Sliding Window Attention (SWA) achieves linear-time encoding/decoding by constraining the attention pattern, but under an Associative Memory interpretation, its difference-style update renders the training objective effectively unbounded. In contrast, Softmax attention normalizes updates, leading to memory shrinkage and gradient vanishing. We propose GatedFWA: a Memory-Gated (Flash) Windowed Attention mechanism that preserves SWAs efficiency while stabilizing memory updates and making gradient flow controllable. In essence, GatedFWA accumulate a per-token/head gate into a decay bias added to the attention logits, acting as a learnable contraction in the memory recurrence. We implement a fused one-pass gate preprocessing and a FlashAttention-compatible kernel that injects the gate under a sliding mask, ensuring I/O efficiency and numerical stability. On language modelling benchmarks, GatedFWA delivers competitive throughput with negligible overhead and better use of global context, and it integrates cleanly with token compression/selection methods such as NSA and generalizes to various autoregressive domains.

One of the key factors influencing the reasoning capabilities of LLM-based agents is their ability to leverage long-term memory. Integrating long-term memory mechanisms allows agents to make informed decisions grounded in historical interactions. While recent advances have significantly improved the storage and retrieval components, by encoding memory into dense vectors for similarity search or organizing memory as structured knowledge graphs most existing approaches fall short in memory updating. In particular, they lack mechanisms for dynamically refining preference memory representations in response to evolving user behaviors and contexts. To address this gap, we propose a Preference-Aware Memory Update Mechanism (PAMU) that enables dynamic and personalized memory refinement. By integrating sliding window averages (SW) with exponential moving averages (EMA), PAMU constructs a fused preference-aware representation that captures both short-term fluctuations and long-term user tendencies. We conduct experiments on five task scenarios of the LoCoMo dataset, and the results show that our mechanism can significantly improve the output quality of LLM in five baselines, validating its effectiveness in long-term conversations.

Recent works show that hybrid architectures combining sliding window softmax attention layers with linear recurrent neural network (RNN) layers outperform both of these architectures taken separately. However, the impact of the window length and the interplay between softmax attention and linear RNN layers remain under-studied. In this work, we introduce SWAX, a hybrid architecture consisting of sliding-window attention and xLSTM linear RNN layers. A counter-intuitive finding with SWAX is that larger sliding windows do not improve the long-context performance. In fact, short window attention encourages the model to better train the long-term memory of the xLSTM, by relying less on the softmax attention mechanism for long context-retrieval. The issue with small sliding windows is that they are detrimental for short-context tasks, which could be solved with information from moderately larger sliding windows otherwise. Therefore, we train SWAX by stochastically changing the sliding window size, forcing the model to leverage both a longer context window and the xLSTM memory. SWAX trained with stochastic window sizes significantly outperforms regular window attention both on short and long-context problems.

Transformer-based LLMs have achieved exceptional performance across a wide range of NLP tasks. However, the standard self-attention mechanism suffers from quadratic time complexity and linearly increased cache size. Sliding window attention (SWA) solves this problem by restricting the attention range to a fixed-size local context window. Nevertheless, SWA employs a uniform window size for each head in each layer, making it inefficient in capturing context of varying scales. To mitigate this limitation, we propose Multi-Scale Window Attention (MSWA) which applies diverse window sizes across heads and layers in the Transformer. It not only allows for different window sizes among heads within the same layer but also progressively increases window size allocation from shallow to deep layers, thus enabling the model to capture contextual information with different lengths and distances. Experimental results on language modeling and common-sense reasoning tasks substantiate that MSWA outperforms traditional local attention in both effectiveness and efficiency.

Efficiently approximating local curvature information of the loss function is a key tool for optimization and compression of deep neural networks. Yet, most existing methods to approximate second-order information have high computational or storage costs, which can limit their practicality. In this work, we investigate matrix-free, linear-time approaches for estimating Inverse-Hessian Vector Products (IHVPs) for the case when the Hessian can be approximated as a sum of rank-one matrices, as in the classic approximation of the Hessian by the empirical Fisher matrix. We propose two new algorithms as part of a framework called M-FAC: the first algorithm is tailored towards network compression and can compute the IHVP for dimension d, if the Hessian is given as a sum of m rank-one matrices, using O(dm^2) precomputation, O(dm) cost for computing the IHVP, and query cost O(m) for any single element of the inverse Hessian. The second algorithm targets an optimization setting, where we wish to compute the product between the inverse Hessian, estimated over a sliding window of optimization steps, and a given gradient direction, as required for preconditioned SGD. We give an algorithm with cost O(dm + m^2) for computing the IHVP and O(dm + m^3) for adding or removing any gradient from the sliding window. These two algorithms yield state-of-the-art results for network pruning and optimization with lower computational overhead relative to existing second-order methods. Implementations are available at [9] and [17].

We present Neighborhood Attention (NA), the first efficient and scalable sliding-window attention mechanism for vision. NA is a pixel-wise operation, localizing self attention (SA) to the nearest neighboring pixels, and therefore enjoys a linear time and space complexity compared to the quadratic complexity of SA. The sliding-window pattern allows NA's receptive field to grow without needing extra pixel shifts, and preserves translational equivariance, unlike Swin Transformer's Window Self Attention (WSA). We develop NATTEN (Neighborhood Attention Extension), a Python package with efficient C++ and CUDA kernels, which allows NA to run up to 40% faster than Swin's WSA while using up to 25% less memory. We further present Neighborhood Attention Transformer (NAT), a new hierarchical transformer design based on NA that boosts image classification and downstream vision performance. Experimental results on NAT are competitive; NAT-Tiny reaches 83.2% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, 51.4% mAP on MS-COCO and 48.4% mIoU on ADE20K, which is 1.9% ImageNet accuracy, 1.0% COCO mAP, and 2.6% ADE20K mIoU improvement over a Swin model with similar size. To support more research based on sliding-window attention, we open source our project and release our checkpoints at: https://github.com/SHI-Labs/Neighborhood-Attention-Transformer .

This article introduces a sliding window model for defocus deblurring that achieves the best performance to date with extremely low memory usage. Named Swintormer, the method utilizes a diffusion model to generate latent prior features that assist in restoring more detailed images. It also extends the sliding window strategy to specialized Transformer blocks for efficient inference. Additionally, we have further optimized Multiply-Accumulate operations (Macs). Compared to the currently top-performing GRL method, our Swintormer model drastically reduces computational complexity from 140.35 GMACs to 8.02 GMacs, while also improving the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) for defocus deblurring from 27.04 dB to 27.07 dB. This new method allows for the processing of higher resolution images on devices with limited memory, significantly expanding potential application scenarios. The article concludes with an ablation study that provides an in-depth analysis of the impact of each network module on final performance. The source code and model will be available at the following website: https://github.com/bnm6900030/swintormer.

Diffusion models have recently been increasingly applied to temporal data such as video, fluid mechanics simulations, or climate data. These methods generally treat subsequent frames equally regarding the amount of noise in the diffusion process. This paper explores Rolling Diffusion: a new approach that uses a sliding window denoising process. It ensures that the diffusion process progressively corrupts through time by assigning more noise to frames that appear later in a sequence, reflecting greater uncertainty about the future as the generation process unfolds. Empirically, we show that when the temporal dynamics are complex, Rolling Diffusion is superior to standard diffusion. In particular, this result is demonstrated in a video prediction task using the Kinetics-600 video dataset and in a chaotic fluid dynamics forecasting experiment.

The self-attention mechanism in Transformer-based Large Language Models (LLMs) scales quadratically with input length, making long-context inference expensive. Sliding window attention (SWA) reduces this cost to linear complexity, but naively enabling complete SWA at inference-time for models pretrained with full attention (FA) causes severe long-context performance degradation due to training-inference mismatch. This makes us wonder: Can FA-pretrained LLMs be well adapted to SWA without pretraining? We investigate this by proposing Sliding Window Attention Adaptation (SWAA), a set of practical recipes that combine five methods for better adaptation: (1) applying SWA only during prefilling; (2) preserving "sink" tokens; (3) interleaving FA/SWA layers; (4) chain-of-thought (CoT); and (5) fine-tuning. Our experiments show that SWA adaptation is feasible while non-trivial: no single method suffices, yet specific synergistic combinations effectively recover the original long-context performance. We further analyze the performance-efficiency trade-offs of different SWAA configurations and provide recommended recipes for diverse scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/yuyijiong/sliding-window-attention-adaptation

We study the accuracy of differentially private mechanisms in the continual release model. A continual release mechanism receives a sensitive dataset as a stream of T inputs and produces, after receiving each input, an accurate output on the obtained inputs. In contrast, a batch algorithm receives the data as one batch and produces a single output. We provide the first strong lower bounds on the error of continual release mechanisms. In particular, for two fundamental problems that are widely studied and used in the batch model, we show that the worst case error of every continual release algorithm is tilde Omega(T^{1/3}) times larger than that of the best batch algorithm. Previous work shows only a polylogarithimic (in T) gap between the worst case error achievable in these two models; further, for many problems, including the summation of binary attributes, the polylogarithmic gap is tight (Dwork et al., 2010; Chan et al., 2010). Our results show that problems closely related to summation -- specifically, those that require selecting the largest of a set of sums -- are fundamentally harder in the continual release model than in the batch model. Our lower bounds assume only that privacy holds for streams fixed in advance (the "nonadaptive" setting). However, we provide matching upper bounds that hold in a model where privacy is required even for adaptively selected streams. This model may be of independent interest.

Vision-language models (VLMs) could power real-time assistants and autonomous agents, but they face a critical challenge: understanding near-infinite video streams without escalating latency and memory usage. Processing entire videos with full attention leads to quadratic computational costs and poor performance on long videos. Meanwhile, simple sliding window methods are also flawed, as they either break coherence or suffer from high latency due to redundant recomputation. In this paper, we introduce StreamingVLM, a model designed for real-time, stable understanding of infinite visual input. Our approach is a unified framework that aligns training with streaming inference. During inference, we maintain a compact KV cache by reusing states of attention sinks, a short window of recent vision tokens, and a long window of recent text tokens. This streaming ability is instilled via a simple supervised fine-tuning (SFT) strategy that applies full attention on short, overlapped video chunks, which effectively mimics the inference-time attention pattern without training on prohibitively long contexts. For evaluation, we build Inf-Streams-Eval, a new benchmark with videos averaging over two hours that requires dense, per-second alignment between frames and text. On Inf-Streams-Eval, StreamingVLM achieves a 66.18% win rate against GPT-4O mini and maintains stable, real-time performance at up to 8 FPS on a single NVIDIA H100. Notably, our SFT strategy also enhances general VQA abilities without any VQA-specific fine-tuning, improving performance on LongVideoBench by +4.30 and OVOBench Realtime by +5.96. Code is available at https://github.com/mit-han-lab/streaming-vlm.

Despite the non-autoregressive potential of diffusion language models (dLLMs), existing decoding strategies demonstrate positional bias, failing to fully unlock the potential of arbitrary generation. In this work, we delve into the inherent spectral characteristics of dLLMs and present the first frequency-domain analysis showing that low-frequency components in hidden states primarily encode global structural information and long-range dependencies, while high-frequency components are responsible for characterizing local details. Based on this observation, we propose FourierSampler, which leverages a frequency-domain sliding window mechanism to dynamically guide the model to achieve a "structure-to-detail" generation. FourierSampler outperforms other inference enhancement strategies on LLADA and SDAR, achieving relative improvements of 20.4% on LLaDA1.5-8B and 16.0% on LLaDA-8B-Instruct. It notably surpasses similarly sized autoregressive models like Llama3.1-8B-Instruct.

Visualizing multiple time series presents fundamental tradeoffs between scalability and visual clarity. Time series capture the behavior of many large-scale real-world processes, from stock market trends to urban activities. Users often gain insights by visualizing them as line charts, juxtaposing or superposing multiple time series to compare them and identify trends and patterns. However, existing representations struggle with scalability: when covering long time spans, leading to visual clutter from too many small multiples or overlapping lines. We propose TiVy, a new algorithm that summarizes time series using sequential patterns. It transforms the series into a set of symbolic sequences based on subsequence visual similarity using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), then constructs a disjoint grouping of similar subsequences based on the frequent sequential patterns. The grouping result, a visual summary of time series, provides uncluttered superposition with fewer small multiples. Unlike common clustering techniques, TiVy extracts similar subsequences (of varying lengths) aligned in time. We also present an interactive time series visualization that renders large-scale time series in real-time. Our experimental evaluation shows that our algorithm (1) extracts clear and accurate patterns when visualizing time series data, (2) achieves a significant speed-up (1000X) compared to a straightforward DTW clustering. We also demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to explore hidden structures in massive time series data in two usage scenarios.

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has shown great importance in numerous industries. Current state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN)-based forecasting methods usually require both graph networks (e.g., GCN) and temporal networks (e.g., LSTM) to capture inter-series (spatial) dynamics and intra-series (temporal) dependencies, respectively. However, the uncertain compatibility of the two networks puts an extra burden on handcrafted model designs. Moreover, the separate spatial and temporal modeling naturally violates the unified spatiotemporal inter-dependencies in real world, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome these problems, we explore an interesting direction of directly applying graph networks and rethink MTS forecasting from a pure graph perspective. We first define a novel data structure, hypervariate graph, which regards each series value (regardless of variates or timestamps) as a graph node, and represents sliding windows as space-time fully-connected graphs. This perspective considers spatiotemporal dynamics unitedly and reformulates classic MTS forecasting into the predictions on hypervariate graphs. Then, we propose a novel architecture Fourier Graph Neural Network (FourierGNN) by stacking our proposed Fourier Graph Operator (FGO) to perform matrix multiplications in Fourier space. FourierGNN accommodates adequate expressiveness and achieves much lower complexity, which can effectively and efficiently accomplish the forecasting. Besides, our theoretical analysis reveals FGO's equivalence to graph convolutions in the time domain, which further verifies the validity of FourierGNN. Extensive experiments on seven datasets have demonstrated our superior performance with higher efficiency and fewer parameters compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Complex numerical time series analysis often demands multi-step reasoning capabilities beyond current models' reach. Tasks like medical diagnosis and weather forecasting require sequential reasoning processes - including counterfactual analysis, logical deduction, knowledge application, and multi-modal contextual integration - that existing time series models cannot explicitly perform. While recent research has shown large language models (LLMs) can achieve sophisticated Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning through reinforcement learning (RL), these advances have primarily focused on mathematical and coding domains, with LLMs still demonstrating poor performance on time series tasks. We introduce Chain Of thought for Understanding Numerical Time Series (COUNTS), the first framework that trains LLMs to perform CoT reasoning across diverse time series tasks using RL with verifiable rewards. Our approach employs a Residual Vector-Quantized VAE to create high-fidelity discrete tokens that seamlessly integrate into a pre-trained LLM's vocabulary. COUNTS undergoes a two-stage training process: first, supervised fine-tuning on time series analysis tasks to master our novel representations, followed by Group Relative Policy Optimization training on verifiable problems using prompting strategies that encourage explicit reasoning steps before producing final answers. Our experiments demonstrate that this RL-driven approach with intermediate CoT reasoning significantly enhances LLM performance across various time series analysis tasks, opening new possibilities for complex temporal data reasoning.

More and more, data is being produced in a streaming fashion. This has led to increased interest into how actionable insights can be extracted in real time from data streams through Stream Reasoning. Reasoning over data streams raises multiple challenges, notably the high velocity of data, the real time requirement of the reasoning, and the noisy and volatile nature of streams. This paper proposes novel semantics for incremental reasoning over streams of Description Logic ABoxes, in order to tackle these challenges. To address the first two challenges, our semantics for reasoning over sliding windows on streams allow for incrementally computing the materialization of the window based on the materialization of the previous window. Furthermore, to deal with the volatile nature of streams, we present novel semantics for inconsistency repair on such windows, based on preferred repair semantics. We then detail our proposed semi-naive algorithms for incremental materialization maintenance in the case of OWL2 RL, both in the presence of inconsistencies and without.

Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) with 3D full attention power state-of-the-art video generation, but suffer from prohibitive compute cost -- when generating just a 5-second 720P video, attention alone takes 800 out of 945 seconds of total inference time. This paper introduces sliding tile attention (STA) to address this challenge. STA leverages the observation that attention scores in pretrained video diffusion models predominantly concentrate within localized 3D windows. By sliding and attending over the local spatial-temporal region, STA eliminates redundancy from full attention. Unlike traditional token-wise sliding window attention (SWA), STA operates tile-by-tile with a novel hardware-aware sliding window design, preserving expressiveness while being hardware-efficient. With careful kernel-level optimizations, STA offers the first efficient 2D/3D sliding-window-like attention implementation, achieving 58.79% MFU. Precisely, STA accelerates attention by 2.8-17x over FlashAttention-2 (FA2) and 1.6-10x over FlashAttention-3 (FA3). On the leading video DiT, HunyuanVideo, STA reduces end-to-end latency from 945s (FA3) to 685s without quality degradation, requiring no training. Enabling finetuning further lowers latency to 268s with only a 0.09% drop on VBench.

Major Internet advertising platforms offer budget pacing tools as a standard service for advertisers to manage their ad campaigns. Given the inherent non-stationarity in an advertiser's value and also competing advertisers' values over time, a commonly used approach is to learn a target expenditure plan that specifies a target spend as a function of time, and then run a controller that tracks this plan. This raises the question: how many historical samples are required to learn a good expenditure plan? We study this question by considering an advertiser repeatedly participating in T second-price auctions, where the tuple of her value and the highest competing bid is drawn from an unknown time-varying distribution. The advertiser seeks to maximize her total utility subject to her budget constraint. Prior work has shown the sufficiency of Tlog T samples per distribution to achieve the optimal O(T)-regret. We dramatically improve this state-of-the-art and show that just one sample per distribution is enough to achieve the near-optimal tilde O(T)-regret, while still being robust to noise in the sampling distributions.

Reinforcement learning fine-tuning has become the dominant approach for aligning diffusion models with human preferences. However, assessing images is intrinsically a multi-dimensional task, and multiple evaluation criteria need to be optimized simultaneously. Existing practice deal with multiple rewards by training one specialist model per reward, optimizing a weighted-sum reward R(x)=sum_k w_k R_k(x), or sequentially fine-tuning with a hand-crafted stage schedule. These approaches either fail to produce a unified model that can be jointly trained on all rewards or necessitates heavy manually tuned sequential training. We find that the failure stems from using a naive weighted-sum reward aggregation. This approach suffers from a sample-level mismatch because most rollouts are specialist samples, highly informative for certain reward dimensions but irrelevant for others; consequently, weighted summation dilutes their supervision. To address this issue, we propose MARBLE (Multi-Aspect Reward BaLancE), a gradient-space optimization framework that maintains independent advantage estimators for each reward, computes per-reward policy gradients, and harmonizes them into a single update direction without manually-tuned reward weighting, by solving a Quadratic Programming problem. We further propose an amortized formulation that exploits the affine structure of the loss used in DiffusionNFT, to reduce the per-step cost from K+1 backward passes to near single-reward baseline cost, together with EMA smoothing on the balancing coefficients to stabilize updates against transient single-batch fluctuations. On SD3.5 Medium with five rewards, MARBLE improves all five reward dimensions simultaneously, turns the worst-aligned reward's gradient cosine from negative under weighted summation in 80% of mini-batches to consistently positive, and runs at 0.97X the training speed of baseline training.

To effectively reduce the visual tokens in Visual Large Language Models (VLLMs), we propose a novel approach called Window Token Concatenation (WiCo). Specifically, we employ a sliding window to concatenate spatially adjacent visual tokens. However, directly concatenating these tokens may group diverse tokens into one, and thus obscure some fine details. To address this challenge, we propose fine-tuning the last few layers of the vision encoder to adaptively adjust the visual tokens, encouraging that those within the same window exhibit similar features. To further enhance the performance on fine-grained visual understanding tasks, we introduce WiCo+, which decomposes the visual tokens in later layers of the LLM. Such a design enjoys the merits of the large perception field of the LLM for fine-grained visual understanding while keeping a small number of visual tokens for efficient inference. We perform extensive experiments on both coarse- and fine-grained visual understanding tasks based on LLaVA-1.5 and Shikra, showing better performance compared with existing token reduction projectors. The code is available: https://github.com/JackYFL/WiCo.

Diffusion models offer a physically grounded framework for probabilistic weather forecasting, but their typical reliance on slow, iterative solvers during inference makes them impractical for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) applications where long lead-times and domain-driven calibration are essential. To address this, we introduce Swift, a single-step consistency model that, for the first time, enables autoregressive finetuning of a probability flow model with a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) objective. This eliminates the need for multi-model ensembling or parameter perturbations. Results show that Swift produces skillful 6-hourly forecasts that remain stable for up to 75 days, running 39times faster than state-of-the-art diffusion baselines while achieving forecast skill competitive with the numerical-based, operational IFS ENS. This marks a step toward efficient and reliable ensemble forecasting from medium-range to seasonal-scales.

Machine learning approaches relying on such criteria as adversarial robustness or multi-agent settings have raised the need for solving game-theoretic equilibrium problems. Of particular relevance to these applications are methods targeting finite-sum structure, which generically arises in empirical variants of learning problems in these contexts. Further, methods with computable approximation errors are highly desirable, as they provide verifiable exit criteria. Motivated by these applications, we study finite-sum monotone inclusion problems, which model broad classes of equilibrium problems. Our main contributions are variants of the classical Halpern iteration that employ variance reduction to obtain improved complexity guarantees in which n component operators in the finite sum are ``on average'' either cocoercive or Lipschitz continuous and monotone, with parameter L. The resulting oracle complexity of our methods, which provide guarantees for the last iterate and for a (computable) operator norm residual, is mathcal{O}( n + nLvarepsilon^{-1}), which improves upon existing methods by a factor up to n. This constitutes the first variance reduction-type result for general finite-sum monotone inclusions and for more specific problems such as convex-concave optimization when operator norm residual is the optimality measure. We further argue that, up to poly-logarithmic factors, this complexity is unimprovable in the monotone Lipschitz setting; i.e., the provided result is near-optimal.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

Microsimulation models used by ministries of finance and central banks rely on parametric processes for lifetime earnings that capture only first and second moments of the conditional distribution and miss long-range nonlinear structure. We propose SAGA, a decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular panel sequences, paired with a split conformal calibration wrapper that delivers individual-level prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. Trained on the longitudinal Swedish LISA register over 1990 to 2022, comprising 2,143,817 individuals and 61,284,903 person-years, the model forecasts annual labor earnings at horizons of one to thirty years and aggregates them by Monte Carlo into present-discounted lifetime earnings distributions. Against the canonical Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song parametric process and tabular and recurrent baselines, SAGA reduces continuous ranked probability score by 31.9 percent at the ten-year horizon and mean absolute error by 37.7 percent at the twenty-year horizon. Conformal intervals achieve nominal coverage to within 0.4 percentage points marginally and within 2.4 percentage points on the worst-case demographic subgroup. The reconstructed lifetime earnings Gini coefficient is 0.327 against the partially observed truth of 0.341 and the GKOS estimate of 0.378. Model weights, calibration tables, and a synthetic equivalent dataset are released for replication outside the protected SCB MONA environment.

Online allocation problems with resource constraints are central problems in revenue management and online advertising. In these problems, requests arrive sequentially during a finite horizon and, for each request, a decision maker needs to choose an action that consumes a certain amount of resources and generates reward. The objective is to maximize cumulative rewards subject to a constraint on the total consumption of resources. In this paper, we consider a data-driven setting in which the reward and resource consumption of each request are generated using an input model that is unknown to the decision maker. We design a general class of algorithms that attain good performance in various input models without knowing which type of input they are facing. In particular, our algorithms are asymptotically optimal under independent and identically distributed inputs as well as various non-stationary stochastic input models, and they attain an asymptotically optimal fixed competitive ratio when the input is adversarial. Our algorithms operate in the Lagrangian dual space: they maintain a dual multiplier for each resource that is updated using online mirror descent. By choosing the reference function accordingly, we recover the dual sub-gradient descent and dual multiplicative weights update algorithm. The resulting algorithms are simple, fast, and do not require convexity in the revenue function, consumption function and action space, in contrast to existing methods for online allocation problems. We discuss applications to network revenue management, online bidding in repeated auctions with budget constraints, online proportional matching with high entropy, and personalized assortment optimization with limited inventory.

Streaming video generation (SVG) distills a pretrained bidirectional video diffusion model into an autoregressive model equipped with sliding window attention (SWA). However, SWA inevitably loses distant history during long video generation, and its computational overhead remains a critical challenge to real-time deployment. In this work, we propose Hybrid Forcing, which jointly optimizes temporal information retention and computational efficiency through a hybrid attention design. First, we introduce lightweight linear temporal attention to preserve long-range dependencies beyond the sliding window. In particular, we maintain a compact key-value state to incrementally absorb evicted tokens, retaining temporal context with negligible memory and computational overhead. Second, we incorporate block-sparse attention into the local sliding window to reduce redundant computation within short-range modeling, reallocating computational capacity toward more critical dependencies. Finally, we introduce a decoupled distillation strategy tailored to the hybrid attention design. A few-step initial distillation is performed under dense attention, then the distillation of our proposed linear temporal and block-sparse attention is activated for streaming modeling, ensuring stable optimization. Extensive experiments on both short- and long-form video generation benchmarks demonstrate that Hybrid Forcing consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. Notably, our model achieves real-time, unbounded 832x480 video generation at 29.5 FPS on a single NVIDIA H100 GPU without quantization or model compression. The source code and trained models are available at https://github.com/leeruibin/hybrid-forcing.

Long-term forecasting presents unique challenges due to the time and memory complexity of handling long sequences. Existing methods, which rely on sliding windows to process long sequences, struggle to effectively capture long-term variations that are partially caught within the short window (i.e., outer-window variations). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that overcomes this limitation by employing contrastive learning and enhanced decomposition architecture, specifically designed to focus on long-term variations. To this end, our contrastive loss incorporates global autocorrelation held in the whole time series, which facilitates the construction of positive and negative pairs in a self-supervised manner. When combined with our decomposition networks, our contrastive learning significantly improves long-term forecasting performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms 14 baseline models in multiple experiments over nine long-term benchmarks, especially in challenging scenarios that require a significantly long output for forecasting. Source code is available at https://github.com/junwoopark92/Self-Supervised-Contrastive-Forecsating.

Effective user representations are pivotal in personalized advertising. However, stringent constraints on training throughput, serving latency, and memory, often limit the complexity and input feature set of online ads ranking models. This challenge is magnified in extensive systems like Meta's, which encompass hundreds of models with diverse specifications, rendering the tailoring of user representation learning for each model impractical. To address these challenges, we present Scaling User Modeling (SUM), a framework widely deployed in Meta's ads ranking system, designed to facilitate efficient and scalable sharing of online user representation across hundreds of ads models. SUM leverages a few designated upstream user models to synthesize user embeddings from massive amounts of user features with advanced modeling techniques. These embeddings then serve as inputs to downstream online ads ranking models, promoting efficient representation sharing. To adapt to the dynamic nature of user features and ensure embedding freshness, we designed SUM Online Asynchronous Platform (SOAP), a latency free online serving system complemented with model freshness and embedding stabilization, which enables frequent user model updates and online inference of user embeddings upon each user request. We share our hands-on deployment experiences for the SUM framework and validate its superiority through comprehensive experiments. To date, SUM has been launched to hundreds of ads ranking models in Meta, processing hundreds of billions of user requests daily, yielding significant online metric gains and improved infrastructure efficiency.

Humans' internal states play a key role in human-machine interaction, leading to the rise of human state estimation as a prominent field. Compared to swift state changes such as surprise and irritation, modeling gradual states like trust and satisfaction are further challenged by label sparsity: long time-series signals are usually associated with a single label, making it difficult to identify the critical span of state shifts. Windowing has been one widely-used technique to enable localized analysis of long time-series data. However, the performance of downstream models can be sensitive to the window size, and determining the optimal window size demands domain expertise and extensive search. To address this challenge, we propose a Selective Windowing Attention Network (SWAN), which employs window prompts and masked attention transformation to enable the selection of attended intervals with flexible lengths. We evaluate SWAN on the task of trust prediction on a new multimodal driving simulation dataset. Experiments show that SWAN significantly outperforms an existing empirical window selection baseline and neural network baselines including CNN-LSTM and Transformer. Furthermore, it shows robustness across a wide span of windowing ranges, compared to the traditional windowing approach.

In this paper, we study a class of composite optimization problems whose objective function is given by the summation of a general smooth and nonsmooth component, together with a relatively simple nonsmooth term. While restart strategies are commonly employed in first-order methods to achieve optimal convergence under strong convexity, they introduce structural complexity and practical overhead, making algorithm design and nesting cumbersome. To address this, we propose a restart-free stochastic gradient sliding algorithm that eliminates the need for explicit restart phases when the simple nonsmooth component is strongly convex. Through a novel and carefully designed parameter selection strategy, we prove that the proposed algorithm achieves an ε-solution with only O(log(1ε)) gradient evaluations for the smooth component and O(1ε) stochastic subgradient evaluations for the nonsmooth component, matching the optimal complexity of existing multi-phase (restart-based) methods. Moreover, for the case where the nonsmooth component is structured, allowing the overall problem to be reformulated as a bilinear saddle-point problem, we develop a restart-free accelerated stochastic gradient sliding algorithm. We show that the resulting method requires only O(log(1ε)) gradient computations for the smooth component while preserving an overall iteration complexity of O(1{sqrtε}) for solving the corresponding saddle-point problems. Our work thus provides simpler, restart-f

Stochastic rounding (SR) is a probabilistic method used to round numbers to floating-point and fixed-point representations. In length n summation, the worst-case error of SR grows as n with high probability, unlike for standard modes, like round-to-nearest (RN), which grows as n. For this reason, the former is increasingly employed in large-scale, low-precision computations as an RN alternative. Additionally, SR alleviates stagnation, whereby relatively small summands are completely rounded off and do not contribute to the sum. We provide an update to [Croci et al., Roy. Soc. Open Sci. 9.3 (2022), pp. 1-25], a survey which discusses the development and use of SR between 1949 and 2022, citing over 100 references. Since then, there has been a surge of new research, and this update covers almost four years of further progress in applying, analysing, and implementing SR. Our main focus is limited-precision stochastic rounding, a new variant that fixes the precision of the random numbers used. We provide insights into industrial and numerical analysis activities surrounding SR, highlighting the next possible steps in making this rounding mode more widely available in hardware.

In this technical report, we present Magic 1-For-1 (Magic141), an efficient video generation model with optimized memory consumption and inference latency. The key idea is simple: factorize the text-to-video generation task into two separate easier tasks for diffusion step distillation, namely text-to-image generation and image-to-video generation. We verify that with the same optimization algorithm, the image-to-video task is indeed easier to converge over the text-to-video task. We also explore a bag of optimization tricks to reduce the computational cost of training the image-to-video (I2V) models from three aspects: 1) model convergence speedup by using a multi-modal prior condition injection; 2) inference latency speed up by applying an adversarial step distillation, and 3) inference memory cost optimization with parameter sparsification. With those techniques, we are able to generate 5-second video clips within 3 seconds. By applying a test time sliding window, we are able to generate a minute-long video within one minute with significantly improved visual quality and motion dynamics, spending less than 1 second for generating 1 second video clips on average. We conduct a series of preliminary explorations to find out the optimal tradeoff between computational cost and video quality during diffusion step distillation and hope this could be a good foundation model for open-source explorations. The code and the model weights are available at https://github.com/DA-Group-PKU/Magic-1-For-1.

We consider offline reinforcement learning (RL) methods in possibly nonstationary environments. Many existing RL algorithms in the literature rely on the stationarity assumption that requires the system transition and the reward function to be constant over time. However, the stationarity assumption is restrictive in practice and is likely to be violated in a number of applications, including traffic signal control, robotics and mobile health. In this paper, we develop a consistent procedure to test the nonstationarity of the optimal Q-function based on pre-collected historical data, without additional online data collection. Based on the proposed test, we further develop a sequential change point detection method that can be naturally coupled with existing state-of-the-art RL methods for policy optimization in nonstationary environments. The usefulness of our method is illustrated by theoretical results, simulation studies, and a real data example from the 2018 Intern Health Study. A Python implementation of the proposed procedure is available at https://github.com/limengbinggz/CUSUM-RL.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion enables variable-length synthesis, but long-horizon generation often suffers from accumulated errors and identity drift. For efficiency, existing methods commonly adopt sliding-window attention during generation. This creates an irreversible generation trajectory: once the active window accumulates appearance errors, subsequent generations can only condition on this degraded trajectory and drift further away. We address this limitation by formulating long video generation as a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) problem. Rather than relying solely on the recent window, we treat previously generated latents as a dynamic, searchable history. We propose LongLive-RAG, a general retrieval framework for AR video generation. At each new block, LongLive-RAG uses a query embedding to retrieve relevant historical latents. This lightweight retrieval step adds only a small overhead relative to generation and lets the generator condition on non-local context instead of only the recent window. To make retrieval more discriminative, we introduce the Window Temporal Delta Loss that suppresses redundant local similarity and encourages embeddings to capture meaningful temporal changes. Together, these components help reduce error accumulation caused by sliding-window attention. Experiments across multiple AR backbones and generation lengths show improved long-video quality and the best average VBench-Long rank. To our knowledge, among open-ended AR long video generation methods, LongLive-RAG is the first to formulate self-generated latent history as content-addressable retrieval memory. Code is available at https://github.com/qixinhu11/LongLive-RAG.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

The whole-brain connectome of a fruit fly comprises over 130K neurons connected with a probability of merely 0.02%, yet achieves an average shortest path of only 4.4 hops. Despite being highly structured at the circuit level, the network's long-range connections are broadly distributed across brain regions, functioning as stochastic shortcuts that enable efficient global communication. Inspired by this observation, we propose Stochastic Attention (SA), a drop-in enhancement for sliding-window attention (SWA) that applies a random permutation to the token sequence before windowed attention and restores the original order afterward. This transforms the fixed local window into a stochastic global one within the same O(nw) per-layer budget. Through depth, independently sampled permutations yield exponentially growing receptive fields, achieving full sequence coverage in O(log_w n) layers versus O(n/w) for SWA. We validate SA in two settings: pre-training language models from scratch, where a gated SA + SWA combination achieves the best average zero-shot accuracy, and training-free inference on Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-30B-A3B, where SA consistently outperforms SWA and matches or exceeds Mixture of Block Attention at comparable compute budgets. These results suggest that connectome-inspired stochastic routing is a practical primitive for improving the expressivity of efficient attention, complementary to existing linear and sparse approaches.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have showcased exceptional performance in long-context tasks, while facing significant inference efficiency challenges with limited GPU memory. Existing solutions first proposed the sliding-window approach to accumulate a set of historical key-value (KV) pairs for reuse, then further improvements selectively retain its subsets at each step. However, due to the sparse attention distribution across a long context, it is hard to identify and recall relevant KV pairs, as the attention is distracted by massive candidate pairs. Additionally, we found it promising to select representative tokens as probe-Query in each sliding window to effectively represent the entire context, which is an approach overlooked by existing methods. Thus, we propose ActQKV, a training-free, Activation-aware approach that dynamically determines probe-Query and leverages it to retrieve the relevant KV pairs for inference. Specifically, ActQKV monitors a token-level indicator, Activation Bias, within each context window, enabling the proper construction of probe-Query for retrieval at pre-filling stage. To accurately recall the relevant KV pairs and minimize the irrelevant ones, we design a dynamic KV cut-off mechanism guided by information density across layers at the decoding stage. Experiments on the Long-Bench and infty Benchmarks demonstrate its state-of-the-art performance with competitive inference quality and resource efficiency.

Recent advances in multimodal time series learning underscore a paradigm shift from analytics centered on basic patterns toward advanced time series understanding and reasoning. However, existing multimodal time series datasets mostly remain at the level of surface alignment and question answering, without reaching the depth of genuine reasoning. The absence of well-defined tasks that genuinely require time series reasoning, along with the scarcity of high-quality data, has limited progress in building practical time series reasoning models (TSRMs). To this end, we introduce Time Series Reasoning Suite (TSR-Suite), which formalizes four atomic tasks that span three fundamental capabilities for reasoning with time series: (1) perception, acquired through scenario understanding and causality discovery; (2) extrapolation, realized via event-aware forecasting; and (3) decision-making, developed through deliberation over perception and extrapolation. TSR-Suite is the first comprehensive time series reasoning suite that supports not only thorough evaluation but also the data pipeline and training of TSRMs. It contains more than 23K samples, of which 2.3K are carefully curated through a human-guided hierarchical annotation process. Building on this foundation, we introduce TimeOmni-1, the first unified reasoning model designed to address diverse real-world problems demanding time series reasoning. The model is trained in multiple stages, integrating a mixture of task scenarios, novel reward functions, and tailored optimizations. Experiments show that TimeOmni-1 delivers strong out-of-distribution generalization across all tasks and achieves a high rate of valid responses. It significantly improves causality discovery accuracy (64.0% vs. 35.9% with GPT-4.1) and raises the valid response rate by over 6% compared to GPT-4.1 on the event-aware forecasting task.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

General function approximation is a powerful tool to handle large state and action spaces in a broad range of reinforcement learning (RL) scenarios. However, theoretical understanding of non-stationary MDPs with general function approximation is still limited. In this paper, we make the first such an attempt. We first propose a new complexity metric called dynamic Bellman Eluder (DBE) dimension for non-stationary MDPs, which subsumes majority of existing tractable RL problems in static MDPs as well as non-stationary MDPs. Based on the proposed complexity metric, we propose a novel confidence-set based model-free algorithm called SW-OPEA, which features a sliding window mechanism and a new confidence set design for non-stationary MDPs. We then establish an upper bound on the dynamic regret for the proposed algorithm, and show that SW-OPEA is provably efficient as long as the variation budget is not significantly large. We further demonstrate via examples of non-stationary linear and tabular MDPs that our algorithm performs better in small variation budget scenario than the existing UCB-type algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first dynamic regret analysis in non-stationary MDPs with general function approximation.

Although GRPO substantially enhances flow matching models in human preference alignment of image generation, methods such as FlowGRPO still exhibit inefficiency due to the necessity of sampling and optimizing over all denoising steps specified by the Markov Decision Process (MDP). In this paper, we propose MixGRPO, a novel framework that leverages the flexibility of mixed sampling strategies through the integration of stochastic differential equations (SDE) and ordinary differential equations (ODE). This streamlines the optimization process within the MDP to improve efficiency and boost performance. Specifically, MixGRPO introduces a sliding window mechanism, using SDE sampling and GRPO-guided optimization only within the window, while applying ODE sampling outside. This design confines sampling randomness to the time-steps within the window, thereby reducing the optimization overhead, and allowing for more focused gradient updates to accelerate convergence. Additionally, as time-steps beyond the sliding window are not involved in optimization, higher-order solvers are supported for sampling. So we present a faster variant, termed MixGRPO-Flash, which further improves training efficiency while achieving comparable performance. MixGRPO exhibits substantial gains across multiple dimensions of human preference alignment, outperforming DanceGRPO in both effectiveness and efficiency, with nearly 50% lower training time. Notably, MixGRPO-Flash further reduces training time by 71%. Codes and models are available at https://github.com/Tencent-Hunyuan/MixGRPO{MixGRPO}.

In this work, we propose KeRNS: an algorithm for episodic reinforcement learning in non-stationary Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) whose state-action set is endowed with a metric. Using a non-parametric model of the MDP built with time-dependent kernels, we prove a regret bound that scales with the covering dimension of the state-action space and the total variation of the MDP with time, which quantifies its level of non-stationarity. Our method generalizes previous approaches based on sliding windows and exponential discounting used to handle changing environments. We further propose a practical implementation of KeRNS, we analyze its regret and validate it experimentally.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) excel on complex problems but face a critical barrier to efficiency: reinforcement learning (RL) training requires long rollouts for outcome-based rewards, where autoregressive decoding dominates time and memory usage. While sliding-window cache strategies can bound memory, they disrupt long-context reasoning and degrade performance. We introduce Progressive Thought Encoding, a parameter-efficient fine-tuning method that enables LRMs to reason effectively under fixed-size caches. By progressively encoding intermediate reasoning into fixed-size vector representations, our approach eliminates the need to backpropagate through full-cache rollouts, thereby reducing memory usage, while maintaining constant memory during inference. Experiments on three models, including Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct, Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B, on six widely used challenging mathematical benchmarks show consistent gains: our method achieves +19.3% improvement over LoRA-based fine-tuning and +29.9% over LRMs without fine-tuning on average, with up to +23.4 accuracy improvement on AIME2024/2025 under the same tight cache budgets. These results demonstrate that Progressive Thought Encoding not only improves reasoning accuracy but also makes RL training of LRMs substantially more efficient and scalable under real-world memory constraints.

We propose the Fourier Adaptive Lite Diffusion Architecture (FALDA), a novel probabilistic framework for time series forecasting. First, we introduce the Diffusion Model for Residual Regression (DMRR) framework, which unifies diffusion-based probabilistic regression methods. Within this framework, FALDA leverages Fourier-based decomposition to incorporate a component-specific architecture, enabling tailored modeling of individual temporal components. A conditional diffusion model is utilized to estimate the future noise term, while our proposed lightweight denoiser, DEMA (Decomposition MLP with AdaLN), conditions on the historical noise term to enhance denoising performance. Through mathematical analysis and empirical validation, we demonstrate that FALDA effectively reduces epistemic uncertainty, allowing probabilistic learning to primarily focus on aleatoric uncertainty. Experiments on six real-world benchmarks demonstrate that FALDA consistently outperforms existing probabilistic forecasting approaches across most datasets for long-term time series forecasting while achieving enhanced computational efficiency without compromising accuracy. Notably, FALDA also achieves superior overall performance compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) point forecasting approaches, with improvements of up to 9%.

In stochastic multi-armed bandits, the reward distribution of each arm is assumed to be stationary. This assumption is often violated in practice (e.g., in recommendation systems), where the reward of an arm may change whenever is selected, i.e., rested bandit setting. In this paper, we consider the non-parametric rotting bandit setting, where rewards can only decrease. We introduce the filtering on expanding window average (FEWA) algorithm that constructs moving averages of increasing windows to identify arms that are more likely to return high rewards when pulled once more. We prove that for an unknown horizon T, and without any knowledge on the decreasing behavior of the K arms, FEWA achieves problem-dependent regret bound of mathcal{O}((KT)), and a problem-independent one of mathcal{O}(KT). Our result substantially improves over the algorithm of Levine et al. (2017), which suffers regret mathcal{O}(K^{1/3}T^{2/3}). FEWA also matches known bounds for the stochastic bandit setting, thus showing that the rotting bandits are not harder. Finally, we report simulations confirming the theoretical improvements of FEWA.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are powerful but often too slow and costly for real-world use during inference. Looped transformers save on parameters by reusing the same weights for multiple computational steps, or "loops." However, this approach has a major flaw: the loops run one after another, causing inference latency and memory requirements to increase with each added loop. This makes them impractical for fast applications. To solve this problem, we introduce the Parallel Loop Transformer (PLT). PLT is a new architecture that delivers the performance benefits of a deep, looped model but with the low latency of a standard, non-looped model. PLT works using two key techniques. First, Cross-Loop Parallelism (CLP) breaks the sequential dependency by computing different loops for different tokens at the same time, all within a single pass. Second, to prevent memory costs from growing, we use an Efficient Representation Enhancement strategy. This method shares the memory (KV cache) from the first loop with all other loops. It then uses a Gated Sliding-Window Attention (G-SWA) to combine this shared global information with local information, maintaining high accuracy. Our experiments show that PLT achieves the high accuracy of a traditional looped model but with almost no extra latency or memory cost compared to a standard transformer.

We provide conditional and unconditional asymptotic formulae for the exponential sums sum_γ,γ^{-iτ}, where the summation is over the ordinates of the nontrivial zeros ρ=β+iγ of the Riemann zeta-function. In particular, the obtained results are related to the Lindelöf Hypothesis for these ordinates (in the sense of Gonek et al. [10]).

We present Lightning Attention, the first linear attention implementation that maintains a constant training speed for various sequence lengths under fixed memory consumption. Due to the issue with cumulative summation operations (cumsum), previous linear attention implementations cannot achieve their theoretical advantage in a casual setting. However, this issue can be effectively solved by utilizing different attention calculation strategies to compute the different parts of attention. Specifically, we split the attention calculation into intra-blocks and inter-blocks and use conventional attention computation for intra-blocks and linear attention kernel tricks for inter-blocks. This eliminates the need for cumsum in the linear attention calculation. Furthermore, a tiling technique is adopted through both forward and backward procedures to take full advantage of the GPU hardware. To enhance accuracy while preserving efficacy, we introduce TransNormerLLM (TNL), a new architecture that is tailored to our lightning attention. We conduct rigorous testing on standard and self-collected datasets with varying model sizes and sequence lengths. TNL is notably more efficient than other language models. In addition, benchmark results indicate that TNL performs on par with state-of-the-art LLMs utilizing conventional transformer structures. The source code is released at github.com/OpenNLPLab/TransnormerLLM.

Linear attention is an efficient attention mechanism that has recently emerged as a promising alternative to conventional softmax attention. With its ability to process tokens in linear computational complexities, linear attention, in theory, can handle sequences of unlimited length without sacrificing speed, i.e., maintaining a constant training speed for various sequence lengths with a fixed memory consumption. However, due to the issue with cumulative summation (cumsum), current linear attention algorithms cannot demonstrate their theoretical advantage in a causal setting. In this paper, we present Lightning Attention-2, the first linear attention implementation that enables linear attention to realize its theoretical computational benefits. To achieve this, we leverage the thought of tiling, separately handling the intra-block and inter-block components in linear attention calculation. Specifically, we utilize the conventional attention computation mechanism for the intra-blocks and apply linear attention kernel tricks for the inter-blocks. A tiling technique is adopted through both forward and backward procedures to take full advantage of the GPU hardware. We implement our algorithm in Triton to make it IO-aware and hardware-friendly. Various experiments are conducted on different model sizes and sequence lengths. Lightning Attention-2 retains consistent training and inference speed regardless of input sequence length and is significantly faster than other attention mechanisms. The source code is available at https://github.com/OpenNLPLab/lightning-attention.

Diffusion models have become a promising alternative to autoregressive models. Among these, uniform diffusion language models (UDLMs) permit any token to be updated at any step, in principle enabling more flexible generation. However, no UDLM has yet been pretrained from scratch at both large parameter scale and large token budget. Both autoregressive modeling and masked diffusion modeling already have capable models at scale that the community can study and build on; uniform diffusion has none. A scratch-pretrained UDLM at scale would provide a clean reference point for studying scaling behavior, generation dynamics, controllability, and trade-offs against established autoregressive and masked diffusion models. To this end, we introduce Sumi ("ink" in Japanese), a fully open 7B uniform diffusion language model pretrained from scratch on 1.5T tokens. Sumi performs competitively with autoregressive models trained at comparable token budgets on knowledge, reasoning, and coding benchmarks, while under-performing on commonsense benchmarks, where our education-heavy data mixture is a likely contributor. We release our model weights, checkpoints, and full training recipe, including a complete specification of the data mixture over publicly available corpora. We hope this release enables the community to study native uniform diffusion at scale and catalyzes work on its as-yet poorly understood aspects.

Periodic signals play an important role in daily lives. Although conventional sequential models have shown remarkable success in various fields, they still come short in modeling periodicity; they either collapse, diverge or ignore details. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework inspired by Fourier series to generate periodic signals. We first decompose the given signals into multiple sines and cosines and then conditionally generate periodic signals with the output components. We have shown our model efficacy on three tasks: reconstruction, imputation and conditional generation. Our model outperforms baselines in all tasks and shows more stable and refined results.

In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for bounding the cumulant generating function (CGF) of a Dirichlet process (DP) X sim DP(αν_0), using superadditivity. In particular, our key technical contribution is the demonstration of the superadditivity of αmapsto log E_{X sim DP(αν_0)}[exp( E_X[αf])], where E_X[f] = int f dX. This result, combined with Fekete's lemma and Varadhan's integral lemma, converts the known asymptotic large deviation principle into a practical upper bound on the CGF logE_{Xsim DP(αν_0)}{exp(E_{X}{[f]})} for any α> 0. The bound is given by the convex conjugate of the scaled reversed Kullback-Leibler divergence αKL(ν_0Vert cdot). This new bound provides particularly effective confidence regions for sums of independent DPs, making it applicable across various fields.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) have emerged as a promising alternative for text generation, distinguished by their native support for parallel decoding. In practice, block inference is crucial for avoiding order misalignment in global bidirectional decoding and improving output quality. However, the widely-used fixed, predefined block (naive) schedule is agnostic to semantic difficulty, making it a suboptimal strategy for both quality and efficiency: it can force premature commitments to uncertain positions while delaying easy positions near block boundaries. In this work, we analyze the limitations of naive block scheduling and disclose the importance of dynamically adapting the schedule to semantic difficulty for reliable and efficient inference. Motivated by this, we propose Dynamic Sliding Block (DSB), a training-free block scheduling method that uses a sliding block with a dynamic size to overcome the rigidity of the naive block. To further improve efficiency, we introduce DSB Cache, a training-free KV-cache mechanism tailored to DSB. Extensive experiments across multiple models and benchmarks demonstrate that DSB, together with DSB Cache, consistently improves both generation quality and inference efficiency for dLLMs. Code is released at https://github.com/lizhuo-luo/DSB.

In many application domains (e.g., recommender systems, intelligent tutoring systems), the rewards associated to the actions tend to decrease over time. This decay is either caused by the actions executed in the past (e.g., a user may get bored when songs of the same genre are recommended over and over) or by an external factor (e.g., content becomes outdated). These two situations can be modeled as specific instances of the rested and restless bandit settings, where arms are rotting (i.e., their value decrease over time). These problems were thought to be significantly different, since Levine et al. (2017) showed that state-of-the-art algorithms for restless bandit perform poorly in the rested rotting setting. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm, Rotting Adaptive Window UCB (RAW-UCB), that achieves near-optimal regret in both rotting rested and restless bandit, without any prior knowledge of the setting (rested or restless) and the type of non-stationarity (e.g., piece-wise constant, bounded variation). This is in striking contrast with previous negative results showing that no algorithm can achieve similar results as soon as rewards are allowed to increase. We confirm our theoretical findings on a number of synthetic and dataset-based experiments.

Memory Gym presents a suite of 2D partially observable environments, namely Mortar Mayhem, Mystery Path, and Searing Spotlights, designed to benchmark memory capabilities in decision-making agents. These environments, originally with finite tasks, are expanded into innovative, endless formats, mirroring the escalating challenges of cumulative memory games such as ``I packed my bag''. This progression in task design shifts the focus from merely assessing sample efficiency to also probing the levels of memory effectiveness in dynamic, prolonged scenarios. To address the gap in available memory-based Deep Reinforcement Learning baselines, we introduce an implementation that integrates Transformer-XL (TrXL) with Proximal Policy Optimization. This approach utilizes TrXL as a form of episodic memory, employing a sliding window technique. Our comparative study between the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and TrXL reveals varied performances across different settings. TrXL, on the finite environments, demonstrates superior sample efficiency in Mystery Path and outperforms in Mortar Mayhem. However, GRU is more efficient on Searing Spotlights. Most notably, in all endless tasks, GRU makes a remarkable resurgence, consistently outperforming TrXL by significant margins. Website and Source Code: https://github.com/MarcoMeter/endless-memory-gym/

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become standard for improving LLM reasoning. However, existing PPO-style trust-region mechanisms remain position-agnostic by enforcing uniform thresholds across all tokens independently. This pointwise treatment conflicts with autoregressive generation in two critical ways. First, uniform thresholds ignore autoregressive asymmetry. Early-stage deviations produce compounding sequence-level drift, causing static thresholds to under-regulate early divergence and excessively constrain late-stage exploration. Second, evaluating token-level divergence in isolation overlooks cumulative prefix drift, granting the same divergence allowance regardless of how far the conditioning history has already deviated from the rollout policy. To address this limitation, we propose CPPO (Cumulative Prefix-divergence Policy Optimization), a token-level masking rule that aligns updates with a finite-horizon policy-improvement bound via two coupled mechanisms. First, a position-weighted threshold imposes stricter limits at early positions whose effects persist longer, relaxing constraints for late-stage tokens. Second, a cumulative prefix budget tracks historical deviations, dynamically restricting further token-level deviation to prevent compounding errors along the prefix. Empirically, CPPO enhances training stability and significantly improves reasoning accuracy across various model scales.

The majority of online display ads are served through real-time bidding (RTB) --- each ad display impression is auctioned off in real-time when it is just being generated from a user visit. To place an ad automatically and optimally, it is critical for advertisers to devise a learning algorithm to cleverly bid an ad impression in real-time. Most previous works consider the bid decision as a static optimization problem of either treating the value of each impression independently or setting a bid price to each segment of ad volume. However, the bidding for a given ad campaign would repeatedly happen during its life span before the budget runs out. As such, each bid is strategically correlated by the constrained budget and the overall effectiveness of the campaign (e.g., the rewards from generated clicks), which is only observed after the campaign has completed. Thus, it is of great interest to devise an optimal bidding strategy sequentially so that the campaign budget can be dynamically allocated across all the available impressions on the basis of both the immediate and future rewards. In this paper, we formulate the bid decision process as a reinforcement learning problem, where the state space is represented by the auction information and the campaign's real-time parameters, while an action is the bid price to set. By modeling the state transition via auction competition, we build a Markov Decision Process framework for learning the optimal bidding policy to optimize the advertising performance in the dynamic real-time bidding environment. Furthermore, the scalability problem from the large real-world auction volume and campaign budget is well handled by state value approximation using neural networks.

This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated as a non-equilibrium thermodynamic process, where price impact represents dissipative work and market noise plays the role of thermal fluctuations. The paper proves a Financial Second Law: under general convex impact functionals, any round-trip trading strategy yields non-positive expected profit. This structural constraint is complemented by a fluctuation theorem that bounds the probability of profitable cycles in terms of dissipated work and market volatility. The framework introduces a statistical ensemble of trading strategies governed by a Gibbs measure, leading to a free energy decomposition that connects expected cost, strategy entropy, and a market temperature parameter. The framework provides rigorous, testable inequalities linking microstructural impact to macroscopic no-arbitrage conditions, offering a novel physics-inspired perspective on market efficiency. The paper derives explicit analytical results for prototypical trading strategies and discusses empirical validation protocols.

For a sequence of random variables (X_1, X_2, ldots, X_n), n geq 1, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index -alpha, alpha geq 0, we show that the contribution of the maximum term M_n triangleq max(X_1,ldots,X_n) in the sum S_n triangleq X_1 + cdots +X_n, as n to infty, decreases monotonically with alpha in stochastic ordering sense.

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose Online ensembling Network (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than 50% compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet.

Does structure in representations imply structure in computation? We study how Llama-3.1-8B reasons over cyclic concepts (e.g., "what month is six months after August?"). Even though Llama-3.1-8B's representations for these concepts are circularly structured, we find that instead of directly computing modular addition in the period of the cyclic concept (e.g., 12 for months), the model re-uses a generic addition mechanism across tasks that operates independently of concept-specific geometry. First, it computes the sum of its two inputs using base-10 addition (six + August=14). Then, it maps this sum back to cyclic concept space (14->February). We show that Llama-3.1-8B uses task-agnostic Fourier features to compute these sums--in fact, these features have periods that respect standard base-10 addition, e.g., 2, 5, and 10, rather than the cyclic concept period (e.g., 12 for months). Furthermore, we identify a sparse set of 28 MLP neurons re-used across all tasks (approximately 0.2% of the MLP at layer 18) that can be partitioned into disjoint clusters, each computing the sum for a Fourier feature with a different period. Our work highlights how an interplay between causal abstraction and feature geometry can deepen our mechanistic understanding of LMs.

In shuffle privacy, each user sends a collection of randomized messages to a trusted shuffler, the shuffler randomly permutes these messages, and the resulting shuffled collection of messages must satisfy differential privacy. Prior work in this model has largely focused on protocols that use a single round of communication to compute algorithmic primitives like means, histograms, and counts. We present interactive shuffle protocols for stochastic convex optimization. Our protocols rely on a new noninteractive protocol for summing vectors of bounded ell_2 norm. By combining this sum subroutine with mini-batch stochastic gradient descent, accelerated gradient descent, and Nesterov's smoothing method, we obtain loss guarantees for a variety of convex loss functions that significantly improve on those of the local model and sometimes match those of the central model.

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

Proactive agents must decide not only what to say but also whether and when to intervene. Many current systems rely on brittle heuristics or indiscriminate long reasoning, which offers little control over the benefit-burden tradeoff. We formulate the problem as cost-sensitive selective intervention and present PRISM, a novel framework that couples a decision-theoretic gate with a dual-process reasoning architecture. At inference time, the agent intervenes only when a calibrated probability of user acceptance exceeds a threshold derived from asymmetric costs of missed help and false alarms. Inspired by festina lente (Latin: "make haste slowly"), we gate by an acceptance-calibrated, cost-derived threshold and invoke a resource-intensive Slow mode with counterfactual checks only near the decision boundary, concentrating computation on ambiguous and high-stakes cases. Training uses gate-aligned, schema-locked distillation: a teacher running the full PRISM pipeline provides dense, executable supervision on unlabeled interaction traces, while the student learns a response policy that is explicitly decoupled from the intervention gate to enable tunable and auditable control. On ProactiveBench, PRISM reduces false alarms by 22.78% and improves F1 by 20.14% over strong baselines. These results show that principled decision-theoretic gating, paired with selective slow reasoning and aligned distillation, yields proactive agents that are precise, computationally efficient, and controllable. To facilitate reproducibility, we release our code, models, and resources at https://prism-festinalente.github.io/; all experiments use the open-source ProactiveBench benchmark.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Efficient streaming video generation is critical for simulating interactive and dynamic worlds. Existing methods distill few-step video diffusion models with sliding window attention, using initial frames as sink tokens to maintain attention performance and reduce error accumulation. However, video frames become overly dependent on these static tokens, resulting in copied initial frames and diminished motion dynamics. To address this, we introduce Reward Forcing, a novel framework with two key designs. First, we propose EMA-Sink, which maintains fixed-size tokens initialized from initial frames and continuously updated by fusing evicted tokens via exponential moving average as they exit the sliding window. Without additional computation cost, EMA-Sink tokens capture both long-term context and recent dynamics, preventing initial frame copying while maintaining long-horizon consistency. Second, to better distill motion dynamics from teacher models, we propose a novel Rewarded Distribution Matching Distillation (Re-DMD). Vanilla distribution matching treats every training sample equally, limiting the model's ability to prioritize dynamic content. Instead, Re-DMD biases the model's output distribution toward high-reward regions by prioritizing samples with greater dynamics rated by a vision-language model. Re-DMD significantly enhances motion quality while preserving data fidelity. We include both quantitative and qualitative experiments to show that Reward Forcing achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks while enabling high-quality streaming video generation at 23.1 FPS on a single H100 GPU.

This paper proposes a reinforcement learning framework that employs Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to dynamically optimize the weights of multiple large language model (LLM)-generated formulaic alphas for stock trading strategies. Formulaic alphas are mathematically defined trading signals derived from price, volume, sentiment, and other data. Although recent studies have shown that LLMs can generate diverse and effective alphas, a critical challenge lies in how to adaptively integrate them under varying market conditions. To address this gap, we leverage the deepseek-r1-distill-llama-70b model to generate fifty alphas for five major stocks: Apple, HSBC, Pepsi, Toyota, and Tencent, and then use PPO to adjust their weights in real time. Experimental results demonstrate that the PPO-optimized strategy achieves strong returns and high Sharpe ratios across most stocks, outperforming both an equal-weighted alpha portfolio and traditional benchmarks such as the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and Hang Seng Index. The findings highlight the importance of reinforcement learning in the allocation of alpha weights and show the potential of combining LLM-generated signals with adaptive optimization for robust financial forecasting and trading.

Effectively training Large Language Models (LLMs) for complex, long-CoT reasoning is often bottlenecked by the need for massive high-quality reasoning data. Existing methods are either computationally expensive or fail to reliably distinguish high- from low-quality reasoning samples. To address this, we propose High-Entropy Sum (HES), a training-free metric that quantifies reasoning quality by summing only the entropy of the top (e.g., 0.5\%) highest-entropy tokens in each reasoning sample. We validate HES across three mainstream training paradigms: Supervised Fine-tuning (SFT), Rejection Fine-tuning (RFT), and Reinforcement Learning (RL), with extensive results demonstrating its consistent effectiveness and significantly reduced computational overhead. In SFT, training on the top 20\% HES-ranked data matches full-dataset performance, while using the lowest-HES data degrades it. In RFT, our HES-based training approach significantly outperforms baseline methods. In RL, HES-selected successful trajectories enable the model to learn strong reasoning patterns, significantly surpassing other compared methods. Our findings establish HES as a robust, training-free metric that enables a unified, effective, and efficient method for developing advanced reasoning in LLMs.

Recent work has shown that attention-based language models excel at recall, the ability to ground generations in tokens previously seen in context. However, the efficiency of attention-based models is bottle-necked during inference by the KV-cache's aggressive memory consumption. In this work, we explore whether we can improve language model efficiency (e.g. by reducing memory consumption) without compromising on recall. By applying experiments and theory to a broad set of architectures, we identify a key tradeoff between a model's state size and recall ability. We show that efficient alternatives to attention (e.g. H3, Mamba, RWKV) maintain a fixed-size recurrent state, but struggle at recall. We propose BASED a simple architecture combining linear and sliding window attention. By varying BASED window size and linear attention feature dimension, we can dial the state size and traverse the pareto frontier of the recall-memory tradeoff curve, recovering the full quality of attention on one end and the small state size of attention-alternatives on the other. We train language models up to 1.3b parameters and show that BASED matches the strongest sub-quadratic models (e.g. Mamba) in perplexity and outperforms them on real-world recall-intensive tasks by 6.22 accuracy points. Implementations of linear attention are often less efficient than optimized standard attention implementations. To make BASED competitive, we develop IO-aware algorithms that enable 24x higher throughput on language generation than FlashAttention-2, when generating 1024 tokens using 1.3b parameter models. Code for this work is provided at: https://github.com/HazyResearch/based.

We introduce Step 3.5 Flash, a sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model that bridges frontier-level agentic intelligence and computational efficiency. We focus on what matters most when building agents: sharp reasoning and fast, reliable execution. Step 3.5 Flash pairs a 196B-parameter foundation with 11B active parameters for efficient inference. It is optimized with interleaved 3:1 sliding-window/full attention and Multi-Token Prediction (MTP-3) to reduce the latency and cost of multi-round agentic interactions. To reach frontier-level intelligence, we design a scalable reinforcement learning framework that combines verifiable signals with preference feedback, while remaining stable under large-scale off-policy training, enabling consistent self-improvement across mathematics, code, and tool use. Step 3.5 Flash demonstrates strong performance across agent, coding, and math tasks, achieving 85.4% on IMO-AnswerBench, 86.4% on LiveCodeBench-v6 (2024.08-2025.05), 88.2% on tau2-Bench, 69.0% on BrowseComp (with context management), and 51.0% on Terminal-Bench 2.0, comparable to frontier models such as GPT-5.2 xHigh and Gemini 3.0 Pro. By redefining the efficiency frontier, Step 3.5 Flash provides a high-density foundation for deploying sophisticated agents in real-world industrial environments.

Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the second-order polynomial maximization method (PMM2) for estimating ARIMA(p,d,q) models with non-Gaussian innovations. PMM2 is a semiparametric technique that exploits higher-order moments and cumulants without requiring full distributional specification. Monte Carlo experiments (128,000 simulations) across sample sizes N in {100, 200, 500, 1000} and four innovation distributions demonstrate that PMM2 substantially outperforms classical methods for asymmetric innovations. For ARIMA(1,1,0) with N=500, relative efficiency reaches 1.58--1.90 for Gamma, lognormal, and χ^2(3) innovations (37--47\% variance reduction). Under Gaussian innovations PMM2 matches OLS efficiency, avoiding the precision loss typical of robust estimators. The method delivers major gains for moderate asymmetry (|γ_3| geq 0.5) and N geq 200, with computational costs comparable to MLE. PMM2 provides an effective alternative for time series with asymmetric innovations typical of financial markets, macroeconomic indicators, and industrial measurements. Future extensions include seasonal SARIMA models, GARCH integration, and automatic order selection.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

Process reward models (PRMs) have proven effective for test-time scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) on challenging reasoning tasks. However, reward hacking issues with PRMs limit their successful application in reinforcement fine-tuning. In this paper, we identify the main cause of PRM-induced reward hacking: the canonical summation-form credit assignment in reinforcement learning (RL), which defines the value as cumulative gamma-decayed future rewards, easily induces LLMs to hack steps with high rewards. To address this, we propose PURE: Process sUpervised Reinforcement lEarning. The key innovation of PURE is a min-form credit assignment that formulates the value function as the minimum of future rewards. This method significantly alleviates reward hacking by limiting the value function range and distributing advantages more reasonably. Through extensive experiments on 3 base models, we show that PRM-based approaches enabling min-form credit assignment achieve comparable reasoning performance to verifiable reward-based methods within only 30% steps. In contrast, the canonical sum-form credit assignment collapses training even at the beginning! Additionally, when we supplement PRM-based fine-tuning with just 10% verifiable rewards, we further alleviate reward hacking and produce the best fine-tuned model based on Qwen2.5-Math-7B in our experiments, achieving 82.5% accuracy on AMC23 and 53.3% average accuracy across 5 benchmarks. Moreover, we summarize the observed reward hacking cases and analyze the causes of training collapse. Code and models are available at https://github.com/CJReinforce/PURE.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment continuous numerical values, degrading mathematical relationships and exploding sequence lengths, leading to computational overhead. To resolve this, we introduce STRIDE (Strategic Time-series Reasoning Injected via Distilled Embeddings), a novel framework natively integrating LLM reasoning into the continuous embedding space of TSFMs. Instead of discrete tokens, STRIDE distills reasoning traces into a lightweight LLM, dynamically projecting its mean-pooled hidden states as a cross-modal prior into the target numerical encoder. The architecture is jointly optimized using cross-entropy and quantile losses. Evaluations demonstrate STRIDE establishes state-of-the-art numerical forecasting on GIFT-Eval (0.674 MASE, 0.454 CRPS) compared to TSFMs and exhibits superior in-domain and out-of-domain numerical as well as reasoning performance on TFRBench. Specifically, STRIDE acts as a plug-and-play enhancement, consistently improving diverse TSFMs (e.g., Chronos-2, Timer-S1) across various LLM configurations. Thus, injecting semantic reasoning as a continuous prior equips TSFMs with human-interpretable reasoning while fundamentally improving predictive accuracy.

Although machine learning tasks are highly sensitive to the quality of input data, relevant datasets can often be challenging for firms to acquire, especially when held privately by a variety of owners. For instance, if these owners are competitors in a downstream market, they may be reluctant to share information. Focusing on supervised learning for regression tasks, we develop a regression market to provide a monetary incentive for data sharing. Our mechanism adopts a Bayesian framework, allowing us to consider a more general class of regression tasks. We present a thorough exploration of the market properties, and show that similar proposals in literature expose the market agents to sizeable financial risks, which can be mitigated in our setup.

LLMs have emerged as powerful tools for interpreting multimodal data. In medicine, they hold particular promise for synthesizing large volumes of clinical information into actionable insights and digital health applications. Yet, a major limitation remains their inability to handle time series. To overcome this gap, we present OpenTSLM, a family of Time Series Language Models (TSLMs) created by integrating time series as a native modality to pretrained LLMs, enabling reasoning over multiple time series of any length. We investigate two architectures for OpenTSLM. The first, OpenTSLM-SoftPrompt, models time series implicitly by concatenating learnable time series tokens with text tokens via soft prompting. Although parameter-efficient, we hypothesize that explicit time series modeling scales better and outperforms implicit approaches. We thus introduce OpenTSLM-Flamingo, which integrates time series with text via cross-attention. We benchmark both variants against baselines that treat time series as text tokens or plots, across a suite of text-time-series Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning tasks. We introduce three datasets: HAR-CoT, Sleep-CoT, and ECG-QA-CoT. Across all, OpenTSLM models outperform baselines, reaching 69.9 F1 in sleep staging and 65.4 in HAR, compared to 9.05 and 52.2 for finetuned text-only models. Notably, even 1B-parameter OpenTSLM models surpass GPT-4o (15.47 and 2.95). OpenTSLM-Flamingo matches OpenTSLM-SoftPrompt in performance and outperforms on longer sequences, while maintaining stable memory requirements. By contrast, SoftPrompt grows exponentially in memory with sequence length, requiring around 110 GB compared to 40 GB VRAM when training on ECG-QA with LLaMA-3B. Expert reviews by clinicians find strong reasoning capabilities exhibited by OpenTSLMs on ECG-QA. To facilitate further research, we provide all code, datasets, and models open-source.

DEEPTHINK methods improve reasoning by generating, refining, and aggregating populations of candidate solutions, which enables strong performance on complex mathematical and scientific tasks. However, existing frameworks often lack reliable correctness signals during inference, which creates a population-enhancement bottleneck where deeper deliberation amplifies errors, suppresses correct minority solutions, and yields weak returns to additional compute. In this paper, we introduce a functional decomposition of DEEPTHINK systems and propose PRISM, a Process Reward Model (PRM)-guided inference algorithm that uses step-level verification to guide both population refinement and solution aggregation. During refinement, PRISM treats candidate solutions as particles in a PRM-defined energy landscape and reshapes the population through score-guided resampling and stochastic refinement, which concentrates probability mass on higher-quality reasoning while preserving diversity. Across mathematics and science benchmarks, PRISM is competitive with or outperforms existing DEEPTHINK methods, reaching 90.0%, 75.4%, and 71.4% with gpt-oss-20b on AIME25, HMMT25, and GPQA Diamond, respectively, while matching or exceeding gpt-oss-120b. Additionally, our analysis shows that PRISM produces consistent net-directional correction during refinement, remains reliable when the initial population contains few correct candidates, and often lies on the compute-accuracy Pareto frontier.

Long-horizon agentic tasks pose a fundamental credit assignment challenge for outcome-base reinforcement learning: trajectory-level rewards verify final correctness but provide limited guidance on which intermediate reasoning steps or tool interactions contribute to the outcome. The difficulty is especially pronounced in multi-turn search agents, where successful trajectories may contain misleading actions and failed trajectories may contain valuable evidence-gathering steps. We propose PBSD (Privileged Bayesian Self-Distillation), a Bayes-calibrated self-distillation method for fine-grained credit assignment under sparse final rewards. PBSD measures trajectory quality through the posterior-to-prior probability ratio of the verified answer and applies Bayes' rule to convert this hard-to-estimate answer-side ratio into a tractable likelihood ratio between a standard student model and a privileged answer-conditioned teacher model. Autoregressive decomposition of this Bayesian evidence score yields turn-level signals that identify whether each intermediate turn supports or undermines the verified outcome. Consequently, PBSD provides a principled and elegant reweighting scheme that transforms sparse outcome supervision into Bayes-calibrated turn-level credit signals, while remaining fully compatible with standard policy optimization. Experiments demonstrate that PBSD consistently enhances performance across both in-domain and out-of-domain settings, and effectively transfers knowledge from short-context training to long-context inference, suggesting that its fine-grained credit assignment mechanism facilitates more effective policy learning and yields improved generalization.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

We consider strategy proof mechanisms for facility location which maximize equitability between agents. As is common in the literature, we measure equitability with the Gini index. We first prove a simple but fundamental impossibility result that no strategy proof mechanism can bound the approximation ratio of the optimal Gini index of utilities for one or more facilities. We propose instead computing approximation ratios of the complemented Gini index of utilities, and consider how well both deterministic and randomized mechanisms approximate this. In addition, as Nash welfare is often put forwards as an equitable compromise between egalitarian and utilitarian outcomes, we consider how well mechanisms approximate the Nash welfare.

Recent advances in diffusion-based video restoration (VR) demonstrate significant improvement in visual quality, yet yield a prohibitive computational cost during inference. While several distillation-based approaches have exhibited the potential of one-step image restoration, extending existing approaches to VR remains challenging and underexplored, particularly when dealing with high-resolution video in real-world settings. In this work, we propose a one-step diffusion-based VR model, termed as SeedVR2, which performs adversarial VR training against real data. To handle the challenging high-resolution VR within a single step, we introduce several enhancements to both model architecture and training procedures. Specifically, an adaptive window attention mechanism is proposed, where the window size is dynamically adjusted to fit the output resolutions, avoiding window inconsistency observed under high-resolution VR using window attention with a predefined window size. To stabilize and improve the adversarial post-training towards VR, we further verify the effectiveness of a series of losses, including a proposed feature matching loss without significantly sacrificing training efficiency. Extensive experiments show that SeedVR2 can achieve comparable or even better performance compared with existing VR approaches in a single step.

In federated learning (FL), weighted aggregation of local models is conducted to generate a global model, and the aggregation weights are normalized (the sum of weights is 1) and proportional to the local data sizes. In this paper, we revisit the weighted aggregation process and gain new insights into the training dynamics of FL. First, we find that the sum of weights can be smaller than 1, causing global weight shrinking effect (analogous to weight decay) and improving generalization. We explore how the optimal shrinking factor is affected by clients' data heterogeneity and local epochs. Second, we dive into the relative aggregation weights among clients to depict the clients' importance. We develop client coherence to study the learning dynamics and find a critical point that exists. Before entering the critical point, more coherent clients play more essential roles in generalization. Based on the above insights, we propose an effective method for Federated Learning with Learnable Aggregation Weights, named as FedLAW. Extensive experiments verify that our method can improve the generalization of the global model by a large margin on different datasets and models.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) advance generalization and data efficiency in time series forecasting by unified large-scale pretraining. But TSFMs remain lacking when adapting to specific downstream forecasting tasks for two reasons. First, the non-stationary and uncertain nature of time series data lead to inevitable temporal distribution shifts between historical training and future testing data, while current Supervised FineTuning (SFT)-based methods are prone to overfitting and may degrade generalization. Second, training data availability varies across forecasting tasks, requiring TSFMs to generalize well under diverse data regimes. To address these challenges, we introduce the Time series Reinforcement Finetuning (TimeRFT) paradigm for TSFM downstream adaptation, which consists of two task-specific training recipes: i) A forecasting quality-based temporal reward mechanism that conducts a multi-faceted evaluation of the contribution of each prediction step to overall forecasting accuracy. ii) A forecasting difficulty-based data selection strategy to identify time series samples with generalizable predictive patterns and informative training signals. Extensive experiments demonstrate TimeRFT can consistently outperform SFT-based adaptation methods across various real-world forecasting tasks and training data regimes, enhancing prediction accuracy and generalization against unforeseen distribution shifts.

In online ad markets, a rising number of advertisers are employing bidding agencies to participate in ad auctions. These agencies are specialized in designing online algorithms and bidding on behalf of their clients. Typically, an agency usually has information on multiple advertisers, so she can potentially coordinate bids to help her clients achieve higher utilities than those under independent bidding. In this paper, we study coordinated online bidding algorithms in repeated second-price auctions with budgets. We propose algorithms that guarantee every client a higher utility than the best she can get under independent bidding. We show that these algorithms achieve maximal coalition welfare and discuss bidders' incentives to misreport their budgets, in symmetric cases. Our proofs combine the techniques of online learning and equilibrium analysis, overcoming the difficulty of competing with a multi-dimensional benchmark. The performance of our algorithms is further evaluated by experiments on both synthetic and real data. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to consider bidder coordination in online repeated auctions with constraints.

With the increasing popularity of autonomous driving based on the powerful and unified bird's-eye-view (BEV) representation, a demand for high-quality and large-scale multi-view video data with accurate annotation is urgently required. However, such large-scale multi-view data is hard to obtain due to expensive collection and annotation costs. To alleviate the problem, we propose a spatial-temporal consistent diffusion framework DrivingDiffusion, to generate realistic multi-view videos controlled by 3D layout. There are three challenges when synthesizing multi-view videos given a 3D layout: How to keep 1) cross-view consistency and 2) cross-frame consistency? 3) How to guarantee the quality of the generated instances? Our DrivingDiffusion solves the problem by cascading the multi-view single-frame image generation step, the single-view video generation step shared by multiple cameras, and post-processing that can handle long video generation. In the multi-view model, the consistency of multi-view images is ensured by information exchange between adjacent cameras. In the temporal model, we mainly query the information that needs attention in subsequent frame generation from the multi-view images of the first frame. We also introduce the local prompt to effectively improve the quality of generated instances. In post-processing, we further enhance the cross-view consistency of subsequent frames and extend the video length by employing temporal sliding window algorithm. Without any extra cost, our model can generate large-scale realistic multi-camera driving videos in complex urban scenes, fueling the downstream driving tasks. The code will be made publicly available.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

We present a model inspired by the Global Workspace Theory that integrates specialized modules to perform a sequential reasoning task. A controller selectively routes information between modules through the workspace using a gating mechanism. This approach allows the model to chain operations by iteratively broadcasting information between specialized domains, mimicking System-2 reasoning. We evaluate the model's performance on a simple addition task, where two addends must be summed. The task can be solved by routing information sequentially through an Input module, an Increment module (multiple times), and finally an Output module. We consider two implementations of this system with increasing complexity. First, using hand-designed modules operating on one-hot digit representations, the controller (a LSTM recurrent network) learns to select the appropriate modules (input, increment, output) in the appropriate sequence. Second, we replace the hand-designed modules with learned representation modules for MNIST images and an increment module trained on the task objectives; here again, the controller learns the appropriate sequential module selection to solve the task. Finally, we show that the Global Workspace model, while having fewer parameters, outperforms LSTMs and Transformers when tested on unseen addition operations (both interpolations and extrapolations of addition operations seen during training). Our results highlight the potential of architectures inspired by the Global Workspace Theory to enhance deep learning's reasoning capabilities.

We study the polynomial-time approximability of the optimal online stochastic bipartite matching algorithm, initiated by Papadimitriou et al. (EC'21). Here, nodes on one side of the graph are given upfront, while at each time t, an online node and its edge weights are drawn from a time-dependent distribution. The optimal algorithm is PSPACE-hard to approximate within some universal constant. We refer to this optimal algorithm, which requires time to think (compute), as a philosopher, and refer to polynomial-time online approximations of the above as philosopher inequalities. The best known philosopher inequality for online matching yields a 0.652-approximation. In contrast, the best possible prophet inequality, or approximation of the optimum offline solution, is 0.5. Our main results are a 0.678-approximate algorithm and a 0.685-approximation for a vertex-weighted special case. Notably, both bounds exceed the 0.666-approximation of the offline optimum obtained by Tang, Wu, and Wu (STOC'22) for the vertex-weighted problem. Building on our algorithms and the recent black-box reduction of Banihashem et al. (SODA'24), we provide polytime (pricing-based) truthful mechanisms which 0.678-approximate the social welfare of the optimal online allocation for bipartite matching markets. Our online allocation algorithm relies on the classic pivotal sampling algorithm (Srinivasan FOCS'01, Gandhi et al. J.ACM'06), along with careful discarding to obtain negative correlations between offline nodes. Consequently, the analysis boils down to examining the distribution of a weighted sum X of negatively correlated Bernoulli variables, specifically lower bounding its mass below a threshold, E[min(1,X)], of possible independent interest. Interestingly, our bound relies on an imaginary invocation of pivotal sampling.

We consider stochastic sequential learning problems where the learner can observe the average reward of several actions. Such a setting is interesting in many applications involving monitoring and surveillance, where the set of the actions to observe represent some (geographical) area. The importance of this setting is that in these applications, it is actually cheaper to observe average reward of a group of actions rather than the reward of a single action. We show that when the reward is smooth over a given graph representing the neighboring actions, we can maximize the cumulative reward of learning while minimizing the sensing cost. In this paper we propose CheapUCB, an algorithm that matches the regret guarantees of the known algorithms for this setting and at the same time guarantees a linear cost again over them. As a by-product of our analysis, we establish a Ω(dT) lower bound on the cumulative regret of spectral bandits for a class of graphs with effective dimension d.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

A common approach for aligning language models to human preferences is to first learn a reward model from preference data, and then use this reward model to update the language model. We study two closely related problems that arise in this approach. First, any monotone transformation of the reward model preserves preference ranking; is there a choice that is ``better'' than others? Second, we often wish to align language models to multiple properties: how should we combine multiple reward models? Using a probabilistic interpretation of the alignment procedure, we identify a natural choice for transformation for (the common case of) rewards learned from Bradley-Terry preference models. This derived transformation has two important properties. First, it emphasizes improving poorly-performing outputs, rather than outputs that already score well. This mitigates both underfitting (where some prompts are not improved) and reward hacking (where the model learns to exploit misspecification of the reward model). Second, it enables principled aggregation of rewards by linking summation to logical conjunction: the sum of transformed rewards corresponds to the probability that the output is ``good'' in all measured properties, in a sense we make precise. Experiments aligning language models to be both helpful and harmless using RLHF show substantial improvements over the baseline (non-transformed) approach.

Many sparse attention mechanisms such as Neighborhood Attention have typically failed to consistently deliver speedup over the self attention baseline. This is largely due to the level of complexity in attention infrastructure, and the rapid evolution of AI hardware architecture. At the same time, many state-of-the-art foundational models, particularly in computer vision, are heavily bound by attention, and need reliable sparsity to escape the O(n^2) complexity. In this paper, we study a class of promising sparse attention mechanisms that focus on locality, and aim to develop a better analytical model of their performance improvements. We first introduce Generalized Neighborhood Attention (GNA), which can describe sliding window, strided sliding window, and blocked attention. We then consider possible design choices in implementing these approaches, and create a simulator that can provide much more realistic speedup upper bounds for any given setting. Finally, we implement GNA on top of a state-of-the-art fused multi-headed attention (FMHA) kernel designed for the NVIDIA Blackwell architecture in CUTLASS. Our implementation can fully realize the maximum speedup theoretically possible in many perfectly block-sparse cases, and achieves an effective utilization of 1.3 petaFLOPs/second in FP16. In addition, we plug various GNA configurations into off-the-shelf generative models, such as Cosmos-7B, HunyuanVideo, and FLUX, and show that it can deliver 28% to 46% end-to-end speedup on B200 without any fine-tuning. We will open source our simulator and Blackwell kernels directly through the NATTEN project.

This paper investigates the global convergence of stepsized Newton methods for convex functions. We propose several simple stepsize schedules with fast global convergence guarantees, up to O (k^{-3}), nearly matching lower complexity bounds Omega (k^{-3.5}) of second-order methods. For cases with multiple plausible smoothness parameterizations or an unknown smoothness constant, we introduce a stepsize backtracking procedure that ensures convergence as if the optimal smoothness parameters were known.

While Hybrid Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) followed by Reinforcement Learning (RL) has become the standard paradigm for training LLM agents, effective mechanisms for data allocation between these stages remain largely underexplored. Current data arbitration strategies often rely on surface-level heuristics that fail to diagnose intrinsic learning needs. Since SFT targets pattern consolidation through imitation while RL drives structural adaptation via exploration, misaligning data with these functional roles causes severe optimization interference. We propose PRISM, a dynamics-aware framework grounded in Schema Theory that arbitrates data based on its degree of cognitive conflict with the model's existing knowledge. By analyzing the spatial geometric structure of gradients, PRISM identifies data triggering high spatial concentration as high-conflict signals that require RL for structural restructuring. In contrast, data yielding diffuse updates is routed to SFT for efficient consolidation. Extensive experiments on WebShop and ALFWorld demonstrate that PRISM achieves a Pareto improvement, outperforming state-of-the-art hybrid methods while reducing computational costs by up to 3.22times. Our findings suggest that disentangling data based on internal optimization regimes is crucial for scalable and robust agent alignment.

The scientific reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) has recently attracted significant attention. Time series, as a fundamental modality in scientific data, presents unique challenges that are often overlooked in current multimodal LLMs, which either encode numerical sequences as text or convert them into images. Such approaches may be insufficient for comprehensive scientific time series understanding and generation. Existing unified time series models typically specialise in either forecasting or analysis, and their effectiveness on non-periodic, heterogeneous scientific signals remains unclear. To address these gaps, we introduce SciTS, a benchmark spanning 12 scientific domains and 43 tasks, with over 50k+ instances, both univariate and multivariate signals ranging from 10^0 to 10^7 in length and up to 10~MHz in frequency. We benchmark 17 models, including text-only LLMs, multimodal LLMs, and unified time series models, and find that general-purpose LLMs exhibit stronger generalisability than specialised time series models, while representing time series as text or images limits their performance due to excessively long sequences and loss of numerical precision, respectively. We then introduce TimeOmni, a framework that equips LLMs with the ability to understand and generate time series while remaining compatible with general-purpose LLM training. This work fills a gap in both dedicated benchmarks and modelling frameworks for scientific time series, paving the way for LLMs to understand and generate complex temporal scientific data.

We study the problem of approximating stationary points of Lipschitz and smooth functions under (varepsilon,delta)-differential privacy (DP) in both the finite-sum and stochastic settings. A point w is called an alpha-stationary point of a function F:R^drightarrowR if |nabla F(w)|leq alpha. We provide a new efficient algorithm that finds an Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3}big)-stationary point in the finite-sum setting, where n is the number of samples. This improves on the previous best rate of Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big). We also give a new construction that improves over the existing rates in the stochastic optimization setting, where the goal is to find approximate stationary points of the population risk. Our construction finds a Obig(1{n^{1/3}} + big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big)-stationary point of the population risk in time linear in n. Furthermore, under the additional assumption of convexity, we completely characterize the sample complexity of finding stationary points of the population risk (up to polylog factors) and show that the optimal rate on population stationarity is tilde Thetabig(1{n}+sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big). Finally, we show that our methods can be used to provide dimension-independent rates of Obig(1{n}+minbig(big[sqrt{rank}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3},1{(nvarepsilon)^{2/5}}big)big) on population stationarity for Generalized Linear Models (GLM), where rank is the rank of the design matrix, which improves upon the previous best known rate.

Exploration in environments which differ across episodes has received increasing attention in recent years. Current methods use some combination of global novelty bonuses, computed using the agent's entire training experience, and episodic novelty bonuses, computed using only experience from the current episode. However, the use of these two types of bonuses has been ad-hoc and poorly understood. In this work, we shed light on the behavior of these two types of bonuses through controlled experiments on easily interpretable tasks as well as challenging pixel-based settings. We find that the two types of bonuses succeed in different settings, with episodic bonuses being most effective when there is little shared structure across episodes and global bonuses being effective when more structure is shared. We develop a conceptual framework which makes this notion of shared structure precise by considering the variance of the value function across contexts, and which provides a unifying explanation of our empirical results. We furthermore find that combining the two bonuses can lead to more robust performance across different degrees of shared structure, and investigate different algorithmic choices for defining and combining global and episodic bonuses based on function approximation. This results in an algorithm which sets a new state of the art across 16 tasks from the MiniHack suite used in prior work, and also performs robustly on Habitat and Montezuma's Revenge.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Budget management strategies in repeated auctions have received growing attention in online advertising markets. However, previous work on budget management in online bidding mainly focused on second-price auctions. The rapid shift from second-price auctions to first-price auctions for online ads in recent years has motivated the challenging question of how to bid in repeated first-price auctions while controlling budgets. In this work, we study the problem of learning in repeated first-price auctions with budgets. We design a dual-based algorithm that can achieve a near-optimal O(T) regret with full information feedback where the maximum competing bid is always revealed after each auction. We further consider the setting with one-sided information feedback where only the winning bid is revealed after each auction. We show that our modified algorithm can still achieve an O(T) regret with mild assumptions on the bidder's value distribution. Finally, we complement the theoretical results with numerical experiments to confirm the effectiveness of our budget management policy.

In reinforcement learning (RL), rewards of states are typically considered additive, and following the Markov assumption, they are independent of states visited previously. In many important applications, such as coverage control, experiment design and informative path planning, rewards naturally have diminishing returns, i.e., their value decreases in light of similar states visited previously. To tackle this, we propose submodular RL (SubRL), a paradigm which seeks to optimize more general, non-additive (and history-dependent) rewards modelled via submodular set functions which capture diminishing returns. Unfortunately, in general, even in tabular settings, we show that the resulting optimization problem is hard to approximate. On the other hand, motivated by the success of greedy algorithms in classical submodular optimization, we propose SubPO, a simple policy gradient-based algorithm for SubRL that handles non-additive rewards by greedily maximizing marginal gains. Indeed, under some assumptions on the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP), SubPO recovers optimal constant factor approximations of submodular bandits. Moreover, we derive a natural policy gradient approach for locally optimizing SubRL instances even in large state- and action- spaces. We showcase the versatility of our approach by applying SubPO to several applications, such as biodiversity monitoring, Bayesian experiment design, informative path planning, and coverage maximization. Our results demonstrate sample efficiency, as well as scalability to high-dimensional state-action spaces.

This script offers an implementation-oriented introduction to deep learning methods for solving and estimating high-dimensional dynamic stochastic models in economics and finance. Its starting point is the curse of dimensionality: heterogeneous-agent economies, overlapping-generations models with aggregate risk, continuous-time models with occasionally binding constraints, climate-economy models, and macro-finance environments with many assets and frictions generate state and parameter spaces that strain classical tensor-product grid methods. The exposition is organized around four complementary methodologies. Deep Equilibrium Nets embed discrete-time equilibrium conditions into neural-network loss functions. Physics-Informed Neural Networks approximate continuous-time Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman, Kolmogorov forward, and related partial differential equations. Deep surrogate models provide fast, differentiable approximations to expensive structural models, while Gaussian processes add a probabilistic layer that quantifies approximation uncertainty; together they support estimation, sensitivity analysis, and constrained policy design. Gaussian-process-based dynamic programming, combined with active learning and dimension reduction, extends value-function iteration to very large continuous state spaces. Applications span representative-agent and international real business cycle models, overlapping-generations and heterogeneous-agent economies, continuous-time macro-finance, structural estimation by simulated method of moments, and climate economics under uncertainty. Companion notebooks in TensorFlow and PyTorch invite hands-on experimentation. These notes are a deliberately subjective and inevitably incomplete snapshot of a rapidly evolving field, aimed at equipping PhD students and researchers to engage with this frontier hands-on.

We study how a central bank should dynamically set short-term nominal interest rates to stabilize inflation and unemployment when macroeconomic relationships are uncertain and time-varying. We model monetary policy as a sequential decision-making problem where the central bank observes macroeconomic conditions quarterly and chooses interest rate adjustments. Using publically accessible historical Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), we construct a linear-Gaussian transition model and implement a discrete-action Markov Decision Process with a quadratic loss reward function. We chose to compare nine different reinforcement learning style approaches against Taylor Rule and naive baselines, including tabular Q-learning variants, SARSA, Actor-Critic, Deep Q-Networks, Bayesian Q-learning with uncertainty quantification, and POMDP formulations with partial observability. Surprisingly, standard tabular Q-learning achieved the best performance (-615.13 +- 309.58 mean return), outperforming both enhanced RL methods and traditional policy rules. Our results suggest that while sophisticated RL techniques show promise for monetary policy applications, simpler approaches may be more robust in this domain, highlighting important challenges in applying modern RL to macroeconomic policy.

Current motion-conditioned video generation methods suffer from prohibitive latency (minutes per video) and non-causal processing that prevents real-time interaction. We present MotionStream, enabling sub-second latency with up to 29 FPS streaming generation on a single GPU. Our approach begins by augmenting a text-to-video model with motion control, which generates high-quality videos that adhere to the global text prompt and local motion guidance, but does not perform inference on the fly. As such, we distill this bidirectional teacher into a causal student through Self Forcing with Distribution Matching Distillation, enabling real-time streaming inference. Several key challenges arise when generating videos of long, potentially infinite time-horizons: (1) bridging the domain gap from training on finite length and extrapolating to infinite horizons, (2) sustaining high quality by preventing error accumulation, and (3) maintaining fast inference, without incurring growth in computational cost due to increasing context windows. A key to our approach is introducing carefully designed sliding-window causal attention, combined with attention sinks. By incorporating self-rollout with attention sinks and KV cache rolling during training, we properly simulate inference-time extrapolations with a fixed context window, enabling constant-speed generation of arbitrarily long videos. Our models achieve state-of-the-art results in motion following and video quality while being two orders of magnitude faster, uniquely enabling infinite-length streaming. With MotionStream, users can paint trajectories, control cameras, or transfer motion, and see results unfold in real-time, delivering a truly interactive experience.

We consider an extension to the classic position auctions in which sponsored creatives can be added within AI generated content rather than shown in predefined slots. New challenges arise from the natural requirement that sponsored creatives should smoothly fit into the context. With the help of advanced LLM technologies, it becomes viable to accurately estimate the benefits of adding each individual sponsored creatives into each potential positions within the AI generated content by properly taking the context into account. Therefore, we assume one click-through rate estimation for each position-creative pair, rather than one uniform estimation for each sponsored creative across all positions in classic settings. As a result, the underlying optimization becomes a general matching problem, thus the substitution effects should be treated more carefully compared to standard position auction settings, where the slots are independent with each other. In this work, we formalize a concrete mathematical model of the extended position auction problem and study the welfare-maximization and revenue-maximization mechanism design problem. Formally, we consider two different user behavior models and solve the mechanism design problems therein respectively. For the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, which is order-insensitive, we can efficiently implement the optimal mechanisms. For the cascade model, which is order-sensitive, we provide approximately optimal solutions.

Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence, an extension of weak convergence that compares a statistic or process to a sequence of evolving processes. Relative weak convergence retains the essential consequences of classical weak convergence and coincides with it under stationarity. Crucially, it applies in general non-stationary settings where classical weak convergence fails. We establish concrete relative CLTs for random vectors and empirical processes, along with sequential, weighted, and bootstrap variants, that parallel the state-of-the-art in stationary settings. Our framework and results offer simple, plug-in replacements for classical CLTs whenever stationarity is untenable, as illustrated by applications in nonparametric trend estimation and hypothesis testing.

Stock price prediction remains a complex and high-stakes task in financial analysis, traditionally addressed using statistical models or, more recently, language models. In this work, we introduce VISTA (Vision-Language Inference for Stock Time-series Analysis), a novel, training-free framework that leverages Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for multi-modal stock forecasting. VISTA prompts a VLM with both textual representations of historical stock prices and their corresponding line charts to predict future price values. By combining numerical and visual modalities in a zero-shot setting and using carefully designed chain-of-thought prompts, VISTA captures complementary patterns that unimodal approaches often miss. We benchmark VISTA against standard baselines, including ARIMA and text-only LLM-based prompting methods. Experimental results show that VISTA outperforms these baselines by up to 89.83%, demonstrating the effectiveness of multi-modal inference for stock time-series analysis and highlighting the potential of VLMs in financial forecasting tasks without requiring task-specific training.