Daily Papers

Large language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but they inevitably generate errors throughout multi-step solutions. Process-level Reward Models (PRMs) have shown great promise by providing supervision and evaluation at each intermediate step, thereby effectively improving the models' reasoning abilities. However, training effective PRMs requires high-quality process reward data, yet existing methods for constructing such data are often labour-intensive or inefficient. In this paper, we propose an uncertainty-driven framework for automated process reward data construction, encompassing both data generation and annotation processes for PRMs. Additionally, we identify the limitations of both majority vote and PRMs, and introduce two generic uncertainty-aware output aggregation methods: Hybrid Majority Reward Vote and Weighted Reward Frequency Vote, which combine the strengths of majority vote with PRMs. Extensive experiments on ProcessBench, MATH, and GSMPlus show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed PRM data construction framework, and demonstrate that the two output aggregation methods further improve the mathematical reasoning abilities across diverse PRMs. The code and data will be publicly available at https://github.com/Jiuzhouh/UnPRM.

Knowledge-based visual question answering (KVQA) task aims to answer questions that require additional external knowledge as well as an understanding of images and questions. Recent studies on KVQA inject an external knowledge in a multi-modal form, and as more knowledge is used, irrelevant information may be added and can confuse the question answering. In order to properly use the knowledge, this study proposes the following: 1) we introduce a novel semantic inconsistency measure computed from caption uncertainty and semantic similarity; 2) we suggest a new external knowledge assimilation method based on the semantic inconsistency measure and apply it to integrate explicit knowledge and implicit knowledge for KVQA; 3) the proposed method is evaluated with the OK-VQA dataset and achieves the state-of-the-art performance.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed and democratized on edge devices. To improve the efficiency of on-device deployment, small language models (SLMs) are often adopted due to their efficient decoding latency and reduced energy consumption. However, these SLMs often generate inaccurate responses when handling complex queries. One promising solution is uncertainty-based SLM routing, offloading high-stakes queries to stronger LLMs when resulting in low-confidence responses on SLM. This follows the principle of "If you lack confidence, seek stronger support" to enhance reliability. Relying on more powerful LLMs is yet effective but increases invocation costs. Therefore, striking a routing balance between efficiency and efficacy remains a critical challenge. Additionally, efficiently generalizing the routing strategy to new datasets remains under-explored. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive investigation into benchmarking and generalization of uncertainty-driven routing strategies from SLMs to LLMs over 1500+ settings. Our findings highlight: First, uncertainty-correctness alignment in different uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods significantly impacts routing performance. Second, uncertainty distributions depend more on both the specific SLM and the chosen UQ method, rather than downstream data. Building on the insight, we propose a calibration data construction instruction pipeline and open-source a constructed hold-out set to enhance routing generalization on new downstream scenarios. The experimental results indicate calibration data effectively bootstraps routing performance without any new data.

Unfair predictions of machine learning (ML) models impede their broad acceptance in real-world settings. Tackling this arduous challenge first necessitates defining what it means for an ML model to be fair. This has been addressed by the ML community with various measures of fairness that depend on the prediction outcomes of the ML models, either at the group level or the individual level. These fairness measures are limited in that they utilize point predictions, neglecting their variances, or uncertainties, making them susceptible to noise, missingness and shifts in data. In this paper, we first show that an ML model may appear to be fair with existing point-based fairness measures but biased against a demographic group in terms of prediction uncertainties. Then, we introduce new fairness measures based on different types of uncertainties, namely, aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. We demonstrate on many datasets that (i) our uncertainty-based measures are complementary to existing measures of fairness, and (ii) they provide more insights about the underlying issues leading to bias.

Active learning (AL) in open set scenarios presents a novel challenge of identifying the most valuable examples in an unlabeled data pool that comprises data from both known and unknown classes. Traditional methods prioritize selecting informative examples with low confidence, with the risk of mistakenly selecting unknown-class examples with similarly low confidence. Recent methods favor the most probable known-class examples, with the risk of picking simple already mastered examples. In this paper, we attempt to query examples that are both likely from known classes and highly informative, and propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty-based Active Learning (BUAL) framework. Specifically, we achieve this by first pushing the unknown class examples toward regions with high-confidence predictions, i.e., the proposed Random Label Negative Learning method. Then, we propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty sampling strategy by jointly estimating uncertainty posed by both positive and negative learning to perform consistent and stable sampling. BUAL successfully extends existing uncertainty-based AL methods to complex open-set scenarios. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets with varying openness demonstrate that BUAL achieves state-of-the-art performance. The code is available at https://github.com/chenchenzong/BUAL.

Active learning is the iterative construction of a classification model through targeted labeling, enabling significant labeling cost savings. As most research on active learning has been carried out before transformer-based language models ("transformers") became popular, despite its practical importance, comparably few papers have investigated how transformers can be combined with active learning to date. This can be attributed to the fact that using state-of-the-art query strategies for transformers induces a prohibitive runtime overhead, which effectively nullifies, or even outweighs the desired cost savings. For this reason, we revisit uncertainty-based query strategies, which had been largely outperformed before, but are particularly suited in the context of fine-tuning transformers. In an extensive evaluation, we connect transformers to experiments from previous research, assessing their performance on five widely used text classification benchmarks. For active learning with transformers, several other uncertainty-based approaches outperform the well-known prediction entropy query strategy, thereby challenging its status as most popular uncertainty baseline in active learning for text classification.

Gaussian Splatting (GS) has recently emerged as a promising technique for 3D object reconstruction, delivering high-quality rendering results with significantly improved reconstruction speed. As variants continue to appear, assessing the perceptual quality of 3D objects reconstructed with different GS-based methods remains an open challenge. To address this issue, we first propose a unified multi-distance subjective quality assessment method that closely mimics human viewing behavior for objects reconstructed with GS-based methods in actual applications, thereby better collecting perceptual experiences. Based on it, we also construct a novel GS quality assessment dataset named MUGSQA, which is constructed considering multiple uncertainties of the input data. These uncertainties include the quantity and resolution of input views, the view distance, and the accuracy of the initial point cloud. Moreover, we construct two benchmarks: one to evaluate the robustness of various GS-based reconstruction methods under multiple uncertainties, and the other to evaluate the performance of existing quality assessment metrics. Our dataset and benchmark code will be released soon.

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a new uncertainty-based scheme to improve the performance by reducing the mismatch. The connection also reveals implicit assumptions in other schemes such as averaging, task arithmetic, and Fisher-weighted averaging. Our new method gives consistent improvements for large language models and vision transformers, both in terms of performance and robustness to hyperparameters.

Multimodal AI models are increasingly used in fields like healthcare, finance, and autonomous driving, where information is drawn from multiple sources or modalities such as images, texts, audios, videos. However, effectively managing uncertainty - arising from noise, insufficient evidence, or conflicts between modalities - is crucial for reliable decision-making. Current uncertainty-aware machine learning methods leveraging, for example, evidence averaging, or evidence accumulation underestimate uncertainties in high-conflict scenarios. Moreover, the state-of-the-art evidence averaging strategy is not order invariant and fails to scale to multiple modalities. To address these challenges, we propose a novel multimodal learning method with order-invariant evidence fusion and introduce a conflict-based discounting mechanism that reallocates uncertain mass when unreliable modalities are detected. We provide both theoretical analysis and experimental validation, demonstrating that unlike the previous work, the proposed approach effectively distinguishes between conflicting and non-conflicting samples based on the provided uncertainty estimates, and outperforms the previous models in uncertainty-based conflict detection.

Complex question-answering (QA) systems face significant challenges in retrieving and reasoning over information that addresses multi-faceted queries. While large language models (LLMs) have advanced the reasoning capabilities of these systems, the bounded-recall problem persists, where procuring all relevant documents in first-stage retrieval remains a challenge. Missing pertinent documents at this stage leads to performance degradation that cannot be remedied in later stages, especially given the limited context windows of LLMs which necessitate high recall at smaller retrieval depths. In this paper, we introduce SUNAR, a novel approach that leverages LLMs to guide a Neighborhood Aware Retrieval process. SUNAR iteratively explores a neighborhood graph of documents, dynamically promoting or penalizing documents based on uncertainty estimates from interim LLM-generated answer candidates. We validate our approach through extensive experiments on two complex QA datasets. Our results show that SUNAR significantly outperforms existing retrieve-and-reason baselines, achieving up to a 31.84% improvement in performance over existing state-of-the-art methods for complex QA.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

We investigate the convergence rates and data sample sizes required for training a machine learning model using a stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm, where data points are sampled based on either their loss value or uncertainty value. These training methods are particularly relevant for active learning and data subset selection problems. For SGD with a constant step size update, we present convergence results for linear classifiers and linearly separable datasets using squared hinge loss and similar training loss functions. Additionally, we extend our analysis to more general classifiers and datasets, considering a wide range of loss-based sampling strategies and smooth convex training loss functions. We propose a novel algorithm called Adaptive-Weight Sampling (AWS) that utilizes SGD with an adaptive step size that achieves stochastic Polyak's step size in expectation. We establish convergence rate results for AWS for smooth convex training loss functions. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the efficiency of AWS on various datasets by using either exact or estimated loss values.

Model merging aggregates Large Language Models (LLMs) finetuned on different tasks into a stronger one. However, parameter conflicts between models leads to performance degradation in averaging. While model routing addresses this issue by selecting individual models during inference, it imposes excessive storage and compute costs, and fails to leverage the common knowledge from different models. In this work, we observe that different layers exhibit varying levels of parameter conflicts. Building on this insight, we average layers with minimal parameter conflicts and use a novel task-level expert routing for layers with significant conflicts. To further reduce storage costs, inspired by task arithmetic sparsity, we decouple multiple fine-tuned experts into a dense expert and several sparse experts. Considering the out-of-distribution samples, we select and merge appropriate experts based on the task uncertainty of the input data. We conduct extensive experiments on both LLaMA and Qwen with varying parameter scales, and evaluate on real-world reasoning tasks. Results demonstrate that our method consistently achieves significant performance improvements while requiring less system cost compared to existing methods.

We introduce CAMRL, the first curriculum-based asymmetric multi-task learning (AMTL) algorithm for dealing with multiple reinforcement learning (RL) tasks altogether. To mitigate the negative influence of customizing the one-off training order in curriculum-based AMTL, CAMRL switches its training mode between parallel single-task RL and asymmetric multi-task RL (MTRL), according to an indicator regarding the training time, the overall performance, and the performance gap among tasks. To leverage the multi-sourced prior knowledge flexibly and to reduce negative transfer in AMTL, we customize a composite loss with multiple differentiable ranking functions and optimize the loss through alternating optimization and the Frank-Wolfe algorithm. The uncertainty-based automatic adjustment of hyper-parameters is also applied to eliminate the need of laborious hyper-parameter analysis during optimization. By optimizing the composite loss, CAMRL predicts the next training task and continuously revisits the transfer matrix and network weights. We have conducted experiments on a wide range of benchmarks in multi-task RL, covering Gym-minigrid, Meta-world, Atari video games, vision-based PyBullet tasks, and RLBench, to show the improvements of CAMRL over the corresponding single-task RL algorithm and state-of-the-art MTRL algorithms. The code is available at: https://github.com/huanghanchi/CAMRL

To mitigate the impact of hallucination nature of LLMs, many studies propose detecting hallucinated generation through uncertainty estimation. However, these approaches predominantly operate at the sentence or paragraph level, failing to pinpoint specific spans or entities responsible for hallucinated content. This lack of granularity is especially problematic for long-form outputs that mix accurate and fabricated information. To address this limitation, we explore entity-level hallucination detection. We propose a new data set, HalluEntity, which annotates hallucination at the entity level. Based on the dataset, we comprehensively evaluate uncertainty-based hallucination detection approaches across 17 modern LLMs. Our experimental results show that uncertainty estimation approaches focusing on individual token probabilities tend to over-predict hallucinations, while context-aware methods show better but still suboptimal performance. Through an in-depth qualitative study, we identify relationships between hallucination tendencies and linguistic properties and highlight important directions for future research.

Without manually annotated identities, unsupervised multi-object trackers are inferior to learning reliable feature embeddings. It causes the similarity-based inter-frame association stage also be error-prone, where an uncertainty problem arises. The frame-by-frame accumulated uncertainty prevents trackers from learning the consistent feature embedding against time variation. To avoid this uncertainty problem, recent self-supervised techniques are adopted, whereas they failed to capture temporal relations. The interframe uncertainty still exists. In fact, this paper argues that though the uncertainty problem is inevitable, it is possible to leverage the uncertainty itself to improve the learned consistency in turn. Specifically, an uncertainty-based metric is developed to verify and rectify the risky associations. The resulting accurate pseudo-tracklets boost learning the feature consistency. And accurate tracklets can incorporate temporal information into spatial transformation. This paper proposes a tracklet-guided augmentation strategy to simulate tracklets' motion, which adopts a hierarchical uncertainty-based sampling mechanism for hard sample mining. The ultimate unsupervised MOT framework, namely U2MOT, is proven effective on MOT-Challenges and VisDrone-MOT benchmark. U2MOT achieves a SOTA performance among the published supervised and unsupervised trackers.

As LLM-as-a-Judge emerges as a new paradigm for assessing large language models (LLMs), concerns have been raised regarding the alignment, bias, and stability of LLM evaluators. While substantial work has focused on alignment and bias, little research has concentrated on the stability of LLM evaluators. In this paper, we conduct extensive experiments involving 9 widely used LLM evaluators across 2 different evaluation settings to investigate the uncertainty in model-based LLM evaluations. We pinpoint that LLM evaluators exhibit varying uncertainty based on model families and sizes. With careful comparative analyses, we find that employing special prompting strategies, whether during inference or post-training, can alleviate evaluation uncertainty to some extent. By utilizing uncertainty to enhance LLM's reliability and detection capability in Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) data, we further fine-tune an uncertainty-aware LLM evaluator named ConfiLM using a human-annotated fine-tuning set and assess ConfiLM's OOD evaluation ability on a manually designed test set sourced from the 2024 Olympics. Experimental results demonstrate that incorporating uncertainty as additional information during the fine-tuning phase can largely improve the model's evaluation performance in OOD scenarios. The code and data are released at: https://github.com/hasakiXie123/LLM-Evaluator-Uncertainty.

Anomaly detection is the task of identifying examples that do not behave as expected. Because anomalies are rare and unexpected events, collecting real anomalous examples is often challenging in several applications. In addition, learning an anomaly detector with limited (or no) anomalies often yields poor prediction performance. One option is to employ auxiliary synthetic anomalies to improve the model training. However, synthetic anomalies may be of poor quality: anomalies that are unrealistic or indistinguishable from normal samples may deteriorate the detector's performance. Unfortunately, no existing methods quantify the quality of auxiliary anomalies. We fill in this gap and propose the expected anomaly posterior (EAP), an uncertainty-based score function that measures the quality of auxiliary anomalies by quantifying the total uncertainty of an anomaly detector. Experimentally on 40 benchmark datasets of images and tabular data, we show that EAP outperforms 12 adapted data quality estimators in the majority of cases.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in general domains but often struggle with tasks requiring specialized knowledge. Conventional Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) techniques typically retrieve external information from static knowledge bases, which can be outdated or incomplete, missing fine-grained clinical details essential for accurate medical question answering. In this work, we propose SearchRAG, a novel framework that overcomes these limitations by leveraging real-time search engines. Our method employs synthetic query generation to convert complex medical questions into search-engine-friendly queries and utilizes uncertainty-based knowledge selection to filter and incorporate the most relevant and informative medical knowledge into the LLM's input. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly improves response accuracy in medical question answering tasks, particularly for complex questions requiring detailed and up-to-date knowledge.

LLM agents extend large language models with tool-calling capabilities, but ambiguous user instructions often lead to incorrect invocations and task failures. We introduce a principled formulation of structured uncertainty over tool-call parameters, modeling joint tool-argument clarification as a POMDP with Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) objective for optimal question selection and aspect-based cost modeling to prevent redundancy. Our SAGE-Agent leverages this structured uncertainty to achieve superior efficiency: increasing coverage on ambiguous tasks by 7-39\% while reducing clarification questions by 1.5-2.7times compared to strong prompting and uncertainty-based baselines. We present ClarifyBench, the first multi-turn tool-augmented disambiguation benchmark with realistic LLM-based user simulation across diverse domains including document editing, vehicle control, and travel booking. Additionally, we demonstrate that structured uncertainty provides effective training signals for reinforcement learning, boosting When2Call accuracy from 36.5\% to 65.2\% (3B model) and 36.7\% to 62.9\% (7B model) through uncertainty-weighted GRPO training. These results establish structured uncertainty as a principled, efficient approach for tool-augmented agents, improving both task success and interaction efficiency in real-world scenarios.

In the real world, the frequency of occurrence of objects is naturally skewed forming long-tail class distributions, which results in poor performance on the statistically rare classes. A promising solution is to mine tail-class examples to balance the training dataset. However, mining tail-class examples is a very challenging task. For instance, most of the otherwise successful uncertainty-based mining approaches struggle due to distortion of class probabilities resulting from skewness in data. In this work, we propose an effective, yet simple, approach to overcome these challenges. Our framework enhances the subdued tail-class activations and, thereafter, uses a one-class data-centric approach to effectively identify tail-class examples. We carry out an exhaustive evaluation of our framework on three datasets spanning over two computer vision tasks. Substantial improvements in the minority-class mining and fine-tuned model's performance strongly corroborate the value of our proposed solution.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

Recently, pre-trained vision-language models (e.g., CLIP) have shown great potential in few-shot learning and attracted a lot of research interest. Although efforts have been made to improve few-shot ability of CLIP, key factors on the effectiveness of existing methods have not been well studied, limiting further exploration of CLIP's potential in few-shot learning. In this paper, we first introduce a unified formulation to analyze CLIP-based few-shot learning methods from a perspective of logit bias, which encourages us to learn an effective logit bias for further improving performance of CLIP-based few-shot learning methods. To this end, we disassemble three key components involved in computation of logit bias (i.e., logit features, logit predictor, and logit fusion) and empirically analyze the effect on performance of few-shot classification. Based on analysis of key components, this paper proposes a novel AMU-Tuning method to learn effective logit bias for CLIP-based few-shot classification. Specifically, our AMU-Tuning predicts logit bias by exploiting the appropriate textbf{A}uxiliary features, which are fed into an efficient feature-initialized linear classifier with textbf{M}ulti-branch training. Finally, an textbf{U}ncertainty-based fusion is developed to incorporate logit bias into CLIP for few-shot classification. The experiments are conducted on several widely used benchmarks, and the results show AMU-Tuning clearly outperforms its counterparts while achieving state-of-the-art performance of CLIP-based few-shot learning without bells and whistles.

Can the relative performance of a pre-trained large multimodal model (LMM) be predicted without access to labels? As LMMs proliferate, it becomes increasingly important to develop efficient ways to choose between them when faced with new data or tasks. The usual approach does the equivalent of giving the models an exam and marking them. We opt to avoid marking and the associated labor of determining the ground-truth answers. Instead, we explore other signals elicited and ascertain how well the models know their own limits, evaluating the effectiveness of these signals at unsupervised model ranking. We evaluate 47 state-of-the-art LMMs (\eg, LLaVA) across 9 visual question answering benchmarks, analyzing how well uncertainty-based metrics can predict relative model performance. Our findings show that uncertainty scores derived from softmax distributions provide a robust and consistent basis for ranking models across various tasks. This facilitates the ranking of LMMs on unlabeled data, providing a practical approach for selecting models for diverse target domains without requiring manual annotation.

High-quality arguments are an essential part of decision-making. Automatically predicting the quality of an argument is a complex task that recently got much attention in argument mining. However, the annotation effort for this task is exceptionally high. Therefore, we test uncertainty-based active learning (AL) methods on two popular argument-strength data sets to estimate whether sample-efficient learning can be enabled. Our extensive empirical evaluation shows that uncertainty-based acquisition functions can not surpass the accuracy reached with the random acquisition on these data sets.

Dataset bias is one of the prevailing causes of unfairness in machine learning. Addressing fairness at the data collection and dataset preparation stages therefore becomes an essential part of training fairer algorithms. In particular, active learning (AL) algorithms show promise for the task by drawing importance to the most informative training samples. However, the effect and interaction between existing AL algorithms and algorithmic fairness remain under-explored. In this paper, we study whether models trained with uncertainty-based AL heuristics such as BALD are fairer in their decisions with respect to a protected class than those trained with identically independently distributed (i.i.d.) sampling. We found a significant improvement on predictive parity when using BALD, while also improving accuracy compared to i.i.d. sampling. We also explore the interaction of algorithmic fairness methods such as gradient reversal (GRAD) and BALD. We found that, while addressing different fairness issues, their interaction further improves the results on most benchmarks and metrics we explored.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) rely heavily on instruction tuning to align vision and language capabilities, yet the computational cost of training on large-scale datasets remains a major bottleneck. Existing data selection methods aim to mitigate this by selecting important and diverse subsets, but they often suffer from two critical drawbacks: high computational overhead from processing the entire dataset and suboptimal data selection due to separate treatment of importance and diversity. We introduce CoIDO, a novel dual-objective framework that jointly optimizes data importance and diversity to overcome these challenges. Unlike existing approaches that require costly evaluations across the whole dataset, CoIDO employs a lightweight plug-in scorer. This scorer is trained on just a small random sample of data to learn the distribution of the candidate set, drastically reducing computational demands. By leveraging a homoscedastic uncertainty-based formulation, CoIDO effectively balances importance and diversity during training, enabling efficient and scalable data selection. In our experiments, we trained the CoIDO scorer using only 20 percent of randomly sampled data. Once trained, CoIDO was applied to the entire dataset to select a 20 percent subset for instruction tuning. On the widely used LLaVA-1.5-7B model across ten downstream tasks, this selected subset achieved an impressive 98.2 percent of the performance of full-data fine-tuning, on average.

Though Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated the powerful capabilities of few-shot learning through prompting methods, supervised training is still necessary for complex reasoning tasks. Because of their extensive parameters and memory consumption, both Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods and Memory-Efficient Fine-Tuning methods have been proposed for LLMs. Nevertheless, the issue of large annotated data consumption, the aim of Data-Efficient Fine-Tuning, remains unexplored. One obvious way is to combine the PEFT method with active learning. However, the experimental results show that such a combination is not trivial and yields inferior results. Through probe experiments, such observation might be explained by two main reasons: uncertainty gap and poor model calibration. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a novel approach to effectively integrate uncertainty-based active learning and LoRA. Specifically, for the uncertainty gap, we introduce a dynamic uncertainty measurement that combines the uncertainty of the base model and the uncertainty of the full model during the iteration of active learning. For poor model calibration, we incorporate the regularization method during LoRA training to keep the model from being over-confident, and the Monte-Carlo dropout mechanism is employed to enhance the uncertainty estimation. Experimental results show that the proposed approach outperforms existing baseline models on three complex reasoning tasks.

In recent years, active learning has been successfully applied to an array of NLP tasks. However, prior work often assumes that training and test data are drawn from the same distribution. This is problematic, as in real-life settings data may stem from several sources of varying relevance and quality. We show that four popular active learning schemes fail to outperform random selection when applied to unlabelled pools comprised of multiple data sources on the task of natural language inference. We reveal that uncertainty-based strategies perform poorly due to the acquisition of collective outliers, i.e., hard-to-learn instances that hamper learning and generalization. When outliers are removed, strategies are found to recover and outperform random baselines. In further analysis, we find that collective outliers vary in form between sources, and show that hard-to-learn data is not always categorically harmful. Lastly, we leverage dataset cartography to introduce difficulty-stratified testing and find that different strategies are affected differently by example learnability and difficulty.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences is essential for their applications. Recently, decoding-time alignment has emerged as an effective plug-and-play technique that avoids fine-tuning model parameters. This approach retains the general utility of pretrained LLMs but often suffers from significant inefficiencies during decoding, primarily due to wasted token generation and excessive reward evaluations. To address these challenges, we introduce Cascade Reward Sampling (CARDS) to resolve both efficiency bottlenecks in decoding-time alignment. Specifically, we develop a segment-level rejection sampling algorithm that minimizes redundant computations of both LLMs and reward models (RMs). Central to CARDS is an uncertainty-based segmentation mechanism, which ensures the accuracy of RMs evaluations on incomplete segments. Furthermore, we provide a detailed analysis of reward scores on segments to elucidate the improved alignment performance. Experimental results demonstrate that CARDS significantly improves decoding efficiency, alignment quality, and general utility compared to existing decoding-time alignment methods, achieving approximately a 70% reduction in decoding time and over 90% win-ties in utility and safety benchmarks.

When facing changing environments in the real world, the lightweight model on client devices suffers from severe performance drops under distribution shifts. The main limitations of the existing device model lie in (1) unable to update due to the computation limit of the device, (2) the limited generalization ability of the lightweight model. Meanwhile, recent large models have shown strong generalization capability on the cloud while they can not be deployed on client devices due to poor computation constraints. To enable the device model to deal with changing environments, we propose a new learning paradigm of Cloud-Device Collaborative Continual Adaptation, which encourages collaboration between cloud and device and improves the generalization of the device model. Based on this paradigm, we further propose an Uncertainty-based Visual Prompt Adapted (U-VPA) teacher-student model to transfer the generalization capability of the large model on the cloud to the device model. Specifically, we first design the Uncertainty Guided Sampling (UGS) to screen out challenging data continuously and transmit the most out-of-distribution samples from the device to the cloud. Then we propose a Visual Prompt Learning Strategy with Uncertainty guided updating (VPLU) to specifically deal with the selected samples with more distribution shifts. We transmit the visual prompts to the device and concatenate them with the incoming data to pull the device testing distribution closer to the cloud training distribution. We conduct extensive experiments on two object detection datasets with continually changing environments. Our proposed U-VPA teacher-student framework outperforms previous state-of-the-art test time adaptation and device-cloud collaboration methods. The code and datasets will be released.

Exploration is essential for solving complex Reinforcement Learning (RL) tasks. Maximum State-Visitation Entropy (MSVE) formulates the exploration problem as a well-defined policy optimization problem whose solution aims at visiting all states as uniformly as possible. This is in contrast to standard uncertainty-based approaches where exploration is transient and eventually vanishes. However, existing approaches to MSVE are theoretically justified only for discrete state-spaces as they are oblivious to the geometry of continuous domains. We address this challenge by introducing Geometric Entropy Maximisation (GEM), a new algorithm that maximises the geometry-aware Shannon entropy of state-visits in both discrete and continuous domains. Our key theoretical contribution is casting geometry-aware MSVE exploration as a tractable problem of optimising a simple and novel noise-contrastive objective function. In our experiments, we show the efficiency of GEM in solving several RL problems with sparse rewards, compared against other deep RL exploration approaches.

State-of-the-art supervised NLP models achieve high accuracy but are also susceptible to failures on inputs from low-data regimes, such as domains that are not represented in training data. As an approximation to collecting ground-truth labels for the specific domain, we study the use of large language models (LLMs) for annotating inputs and improving the generalization of NLP models. Specifically, given a budget for LLM annotations, we present an algorithm for sampling the most informative inputs to annotate and retrain the NLP model. We find that popular active learning strategies such as uncertainty-based sampling do not work well. Instead, we propose a sampling strategy based on the difference in prediction scores between the base model and the finetuned NLP model, utilizing the fact that most NLP models are finetuned from a base model. Experiments with classification (semantic similarity) and ranking (semantic search) tasks show that our sampling strategy leads to significant gains in accuracy for both the training and target domains.

Error detection (ED), which aims to identify incorrect or inconsistent cell values in tabular data, is important for ensuring data quality. Recent state-of-the-art ED methods leverage the pre-trained knowledge and semantic capability embedded in large language models (LLMs) to directly label whether a cell is erroneous. However, this LLM-as-a-labeler pipeline (1) relies on the black box, implicit decision process, thus failing to provide explainability for the detection results, and (2) is highly sensitive to prompts, yielding inconsistent outputs due to inherent model stochasticity, therefore lacking robustness. To address these limitations, we propose an LLM-as-an-inducer framework that adopts LLM to induce the decision tree for ED (termed TreeED) and further ensembles multiple such trees for consensus detection (termed ForestED), thereby improving explainability and robustness. Specifically, based on prompts derived from data context, decision tree specifications and output requirements, TreeED queries the LLM to induce the decision tree skeleton, whose root-to-leaf decision paths specify the stepwise procedure for evaluating a given sample. Each tree contains three types of nodes: (1) rule nodes that perform simple validation checks (e.g., format or range), (2) Graph Neural Network (GNN) nodes that capture complex patterns (e.g., functional dependencies), and (3) leaf nodes that output the final decision types (error or clean). Furthermore, ForestED employs uncertainty-based sampling to obtain multiple row subsets, constructing a decision tree for each subset using TreeED. It then leverages an Expectation-Maximization-based algorithm that jointly estimates tree reliability and optimizes the consensus ED prediction. Extensive xperiments demonstrate that our methods are accurate, explainable and robust, achieving an average F1-score improvement of 16.1% over the best baseline.

Recent advances in masked diffusion models (MDMs) have established them as powerful non-autoregressive alternatives for sequence generation. Nevertheless, our preliminary experiments reveal that the generation quality of MDMs is still highly sensitive to the choice of decoding strategy. In particular, widely adopted uncertainty-based samplers suffer from two key limitations: a lack of global trajectory control and a pronounced bias toward trivial tokens in the early stages of decoding. These shortcomings restrict the full potential of MDMs. In this work, we introduce Position-Aware Confidence-Calibrated Sampling (PC-Sampler), a novel decoding strategy that unifies global trajectory planning with content-aware informativeness maximization. PC-Sampler incorporates a position-aware weighting mechanism to regulate the decoding path and a calibrated confidence score to suppress the premature selection of trivial tokens. Extensive experiments on three advanced MDMs across seven challenging benchmarks-including logical reasoning and planning tasks-demonstrate that PC-Sampler consistently outperforms existing MDM decoding strategies by more than 10% on average, significantly narrowing the performance gap with state-of-the-art autoregressive models. All codes are available at https://github.com/NEUIR/PC-Sampler.

We propose a new uncertainty estimator for gradient-free optimisation of black-box simulators using deep generative surrogate models. Optimisation of these simulators is especially challenging for stochastic simulators and higher dimensions. To address these issues, we utilise a deep generative surrogate approach to model the black box response for the entire parameter space. We then leverage this knowledge to estimate the proposed uncertainty based on the Wasserstein distance - the Wasserstein uncertainty. This approach is employed in a posterior agnostic gradient-free optimisation algorithm that minimises regret over the entire parameter space. A series of tests were conducted to demonstrate that our method is more robust to the shape of both the black box function and the stochastic response of the black box than state-of-the-art methods, such as efficient global optimisation with a deep Gaussian process surrogate.

Contemporary domain adaptation offers a practical solution for achieving cross-domain transfer of semantic segmentation between labeled source data and unlabeled target data. These solutions have gained significant popularity; however, they require the model to be retrained when the test environment changes. This can result in unbearable costs in certain applications due to the time-consuming training process and concerns regarding data privacy. One-shot domain adaptation methods attempt to overcome these challenges by transferring the pre-trained source model to the target domain using only one target data. Despite this, the referring style transfer module still faces issues with computation cost and over-fitting problems. To address this problem, we propose a novel framework called Informative Data Mining (IDM) that enables efficient one-shot domain adaptation for semantic segmentation. Specifically, IDM provides an uncertainty-based selection criterion to identify the most informative samples, which facilitates quick adaptation and reduces redundant training. We then perform a model adaptation method using these selected samples, which includes patch-wise mixing and prototype-based information maximization to update the model. This approach effectively enhances adaptation and mitigates the overfitting problem. In general, we provide empirical evidence of the effectiveness and efficiency of IDM. Our approach outperforms existing methods and achieves a new state-of-the-art one-shot performance of 56.7\%/55.4\% on the GTA5/SYNTHIA to Cityscapes adaptation tasks, respectively. The code will be released at https://github.com/yxiwang/IDM.

The increasing scale of large language models (LLMs) brings emergent abilities to various complex tasks requiring reasoning, such as arithmetic and commonsense reasoning. It is known that the effective design of task-specific prompts is critical for LLMs' ability to produce high-quality answers. In particular, an effective approach for complex question-and-answer tasks is example-based prompting with chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, which significantly improves the performance of LLMs. However, current CoT methods rely on a fixed set of human-annotated exemplars, which are not necessarily the most effective examples for different tasks. This paper proposes a new method, Active-Prompt, to adapt LLMs to different tasks with task-specific example prompts (annotated with human-designed CoT reasoning). For this purpose, we propose a solution to the key problem of determining which questions are the most important and helpful ones to annotate from a pool of task-specific queries. By borrowing ideas from the related problem of uncertainty-based active learning, we introduce several metrics to characterize the uncertainty so as to select the most uncertain questions for annotation. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method, achieving state-of-the-art on eight complex reasoning tasks. Further analyses of different uncertainty metrics, pool sizes, zero-shot learning, and accuracy-uncertainty relationship demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Our code will be available at https://github.com/shizhediao/active-prompt.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is the problem of updating a pre-trained source model at inference time given test input(s) from a different target domain. Most existing TTA approaches assume the setting in which the target domain is stationary, i.e., all the test inputs come from a single target domain. However, in many practical settings, the test input distribution might exhibit a lifelong/continual shift over time. Moreover, existing TTA approaches also lack the ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, which is crucial when distribution shifts occur between the source and target domain. To address these issues, we present PETAL (Probabilistic lifElong Test-time Adaptation with seLf-training prior), which solves lifelong TTA using a probabilistic approach, and naturally results in (1) a student-teacher framework, where the teacher model is an exponential moving average of the student model, and (2) regularizing the model updates at inference time using the source model as a regularizer. To prevent model drift in the lifelong/continual TTA setting, we also propose a data-driven parameter restoration technique which contributes to reducing the error accumulation and maintaining the knowledge of recent domains by restoring only the irrelevant parameters. In terms of predictive error rate as well as uncertainty based metrics such as Brier score and negative log-likelihood, our method achieves better results than the current state-of-the-art for online lifelong test-time adaptation across various benchmarks, such as CIFAR-10C, CIFAR-100C, ImageNetC, and ImageNet3DCC datasets. The source code for our approach is accessible at https://github.com/dhanajitb/petal.

Active learning (AL) aims to select the most useful data samples from an unlabeled data pool and annotate them to expand the labeled dataset under a limited budget. Especially, uncertainty-based methods choose the most uncertain samples, which are known to be effective in improving model performance. However, AL literature often overlooks training dynamics (TD), defined as the ever-changing model behavior during optimization via stochastic gradient descent, even though other areas of literature have empirically shown that TD provides important clues for measuring the sample uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a novel AL method, Training Dynamics for Active Learning (TiDAL), which leverages the TD to quantify uncertainties of unlabeled data. Since tracking the TD of all the large-scale unlabeled data is impractical, TiDAL utilizes an additional prediction module that learns the TD of labeled data. To further justify the design of TiDAL, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence to argue the usefulness of leveraging TD for AL. Experimental results show that our TiDAL achieves better or comparable performance on both balanced and imbalanced benchmark datasets compared to state-of-the-art AL methods, which estimate data uncertainty using only static information after model training.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized numerous domains with their impressive performance but still face their challenges. A predominant issue is the propensity for these models to generate non-existent facts, a concern termed hallucination. Our research is motivated by the observation that previous instruction tuning methods force the model to complete a sentence no matter whether the model knows the knowledge or not. When the question is out of the parametric knowledge, it will try to make up something and fail to indicate when it lacks knowledge. In this paper, we present a new approach called Refusal-Aware Instruction Tuning (R-Tuning). This approach is formalized by first identifying the knowledge gap between parametric knowledge and the instruction tuning data. Then, we construct the refusal-aware data based on the knowledge intersection, to tune LLMs to refrain from responding to questions beyond its parametric knowledge. Experimental results demonstrate this new instruction tuning approach effectively improves a model's ability to answer known questions and refrain from answering unknown questions. Furthermore, when tested on out-of-domain datasets, the refusal ability was found to be a meta-skill that could be generalized to other tasks. Further analysis surprisingly finds that learning the uncertainty during training displays a better ability to estimate uncertainty than uncertainty-based testing. Our code will be released at https://github.com/shizhediao/R-Tuning.

Current methods for 3D semantic segmentation propose training models with limited annotations to address the difficulty of annotating large, irregular, and unordered 3D point cloud data. They usually focus on the 3D domain only, without leveraging the complementary nature of 2D and 3D data. Besides, some methods extend original labels or generate pseudo labels to guide the training, but they often fail to fully use these labels or address the noise within them. Meanwhile, the emergence of comprehensive and adaptable foundation models has offered effective solutions for segmenting 2D data. Leveraging this advancement, we present a novel approach that maximizes the utility of sparsely available 3D annotations by incorporating segmentation masks generated by 2D foundation models. We further propagate the 2D segmentation masks into the 3D space by establishing geometric correspondences between 3D scenes and 2D views. We extend the highly sparse annotations to encompass the areas delineated by 3D masks, thereby substantially augmenting the pool of available labels. Furthermore, we apply confidence- and uncertainty-based consistency regularization on augmentations of the 3D point cloud and select the reliable pseudo labels, which are further spread on the 3D masks to generate more labels. This innovative strategy bridges the gap between limited 3D annotations and the powerful capabilities of 2D foundation models, ultimately improving the performance of 3D weakly supervised segmentation.

This paper proposes MATT-Diff: Multimodal Active Target Tracking by Diffusion Policy, a control policy for active multi-target tracking using a mobile agent. The policy enables multiple behavior modes for the agent, including exploration, tracking, and target reacquisition, without prior knowledge of the target numbers, states, or dynamics. Effective target tracking demands balancing exploration for undetected or lost targets with exploitation, i.e., uncertainty reduction, of detected but uncertain ones. We generate a demonstration dataset from three expert planners including frontier-based exploration, an uncertainty-based hybrid planner switching between frontier-based exploration and RRT* tracking, and a time-based hybrid planner switching between exploration and target reacquisition based on target detection time. Our control policy utilizes a vision transformer for egocentric map tokenization and an attention mechanism to integrate variable target estimates represented by Gaussian densities. Trained as a diffusion model, the policy learns to generate multimodal action sequences through a denoising process. Evaluations demonstrate MATT-Diff's superior tracking performance against other learning-based baselines in novel environments, as well as its multimodal behavior sourced from the multiple expert planners. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/CINAPSLab/MATT-Diff.

Large language models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate due to misaligned self-awareness, generating erroneous outputs when addressing queries beyond their knowledge boundaries. While existing approaches mitigate hallucinations via uncertainty estimation or query rejection, they suffer from computational inefficiency or sacrificed helpfulness. To address these issues, we propose the Explicit Knowledge Boundary Modeling (EKBM) framework, integrating fast and slow reasoning systems to harmonize reliability and usability. The framework first employs a fast-thinking model to generate confidence-labeled responses, enabling immediate use of high-confidence outputs. For uncertain predictions, a slow refinement model conducts targeted reasoning to improve accuracy. To align model behavior with our proposed object, we propose a hybrid training pipeline, enhancing self-awareness without degrading task performance. Evaluations on dialogue state tracking tasks demonstrate that EKBM achieves superior model reliability over uncertainty-based baselines. Further analysis reveals that refinement substantially boosts accuracy while maintaining low computational overhead. Our work establishes a scalable paradigm for advancing LLM reliability and balancing accuracy and practical utility in error-sensitive applications.

Large language models (LLMs) serve as giant information stores, often including personal or copyrighted data, and retraining them from scratch is not a viable option. This has led to the development of various fast, approximate unlearning techniques to selectively remove knowledge from LLMs. Prior research has largely focused on minimizing the probabilities of specific token sequences by reversing the language modeling objective. However, these methods still leave LLMs vulnerable to adversarial attacks that exploit indirect references. In this work, we examine the limitations of current unlearning techniques in effectively erasing a particular type of indirect prompt: multi-hop queries. Our findings reveal that existing methods fail to completely remove multi-hop knowledge when one of the intermediate hops is unlearned. To address this issue, we propose MUNCH, a simple uncertainty-based approach that breaks down multi-hop queries into subquestions and leverages the uncertainty of the unlearned model in final decision-making. Empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework, and MUNCH can be easily integrated with existing unlearning techniques, making it a flexible and useful solution for enhancing unlearning processes.

Both uncertainty-assisted and iteration-based methods have achieved great success in stereo matching. However, existing uncertainty estimation methods take a single image and the corresponding disparity as input, which imposes higher demands on the estimation network. In this paper, we propose Cost volume-based disparity Uncertainty Estimation (UEC). Based on the rich similarity information in the cost volume coming from the image pairs, the proposed UEC can achieve competitive performance with low computational cost. Secondly, we propose two methods of uncertainty-assisted disparity estimation, Uncertainty-based Disparity Rectification (UDR) and Uncertainty-based Disparity update Conditioning (UDC). These two methods optimise the disparity update process of the iterative-based approach without adding extra parameters. In addition, we propose Disparity Rectification loss that significantly improves the accuracy of small amount of disparity updates. We present a high-performance stereo architecture, DR Stereo, which is a combination of the proposed methods. Experimental results from SceneFlow, KITTI, Middlebury 2014, and ETH3D show that DR-Stereo achieves very competitive disparity estimation performance.

Specialist epilepsy expertise is scarce in resource-constrained settings, making LLM-based decision support attractive for frontline clinicians managing longitudinal treatment. Such systems must adapt to local prescribing practice and know when to defer. We study this problem in Ugandan pediatric epilepsy care, predicting anti-seizure medication regimens from longitudinal unstructured clinic notes. Standard prompting achieves non-trivial agreement with physician prescriptions, but neurologist review shows that many errors reflect distribution-miscalibrated prescribing defaults rather than failures to parse the local record. We introduce MANANA, a non-parametric prompt-learning framework that learns local prescribing guidance from a small patient-level training set. MANANA converts observed prescription errors into auditable prompt memories, instantiated in single-agent and multi-agent variants, and improves over classical ML models, direct LLM prompting, and prompt-optimization baselines across two independently collected Ugandan cohorts. We further propose Bayesian prompt averaging, which converts the learned prompt trajectory into prescription likelihoods and an uncertainty-based deferral signal. On the independently collected held-out cohort, this improves visit-level top-3 prescription accuracy by 4-8 percentage points over prompt-optimization baselines and enables selective prediction: the system can auto-handle the most confident half of cases at 95% precision, or the most confident quarter at 99% precision, while deferring lower-confidence cases for specialist review.

Word-level quality estimation (QE) detects erroneous spans in machine translations, which can direct and facilitate human post-editing. While the accuracy of word-level QE systems has been assessed extensively, their usability and downstream influence on the speed, quality and editing choices of human post-editing remain understudied. Our QE4PE study investigates the impact of word-level QE on machine translation (MT) post-editing in a realistic setting involving 42 professional post-editors across two translation directions. We compare four error-span highlight modalities, including supervised and uncertainty-based word-level QE methods, for identifying potential errors in the outputs of a state-of-the-art neural MT model. Post-editing effort and productivity are estimated by behavioral logs, while quality improvements are assessed by word- and segment-level human annotation. We find that domain, language and editors' speed are critical factors in determining highlights' effectiveness, with modest differences between human-made and automated QE highlights underlining a gap between accuracy and usability in professional workflows.

Estimating camera motion and intrinsics from casual videos is a core challenge in computer vision. Traditional bundle-adjustment based methods, such as SfM and SLAM, struggle to perform reliably on arbitrary data. Although specialized SfM approaches have been developed for handling dynamic scenes, they either require intrinsics or computationally expensive test-time optimization and often fall short in performance. Recently, methods like Dust3r have reformulated the SfM problem in a more data-driven way. While such techniques show promising results, they are still 1) not robust towards dynamic objects and 2) require labeled data for supervised training. As an alternative, we propose AnyCam, a fast transformer model that directly estimates camera poses and intrinsics from a dynamic video sequence in feed-forward fashion. Our intuition is that such a network can learn strong priors over realistic camera poses. To scale up our training, we rely on an uncertainty-based loss formulation and pre-trained depth and flow networks instead of motion or trajectory supervision. This allows us to use diverse, unlabelled video datasets obtained mostly from YouTube. Additionally, we ensure that the predicted trajectory does not accumulate drift over time through a lightweight trajectory refinement step. We test AnyCam on established datasets, where it delivers accurate camera poses and intrinsics both qualitatively and quantitatively. Furthermore, even with trajectory refinement, AnyCam is significantly faster than existing works for SfM in dynamic settings. Finally, by combining camera information, uncertainty, and depth, our model can produce high-quality 4D pointclouds.

Machine learning potentials (MLPs) have become essential for large-scale atomistic simulations, enabling ab initio-level accuracy with computational efficiency. However, current MLPs struggle with uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability for active learning, calibration, and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. We address these challenges by developing Bayesian E(3) equivariant MLPs with iterative restratification of many-body message passing. Our approach introduces the joint energy-force negative log-likelihood (NLL_JEF) loss function, which explicitly models uncertainty in both energies and interatomic forces, yielding superior accuracy compared to conventional NLL losses. We systematically benchmark multiple Bayesian approaches, including deep ensembles with mean-variance estimation, stochastic weight averaging Gaussian, improved variational online Newton, and laplace approximation by evaluating their performance on uncertainty prediction, OOD detection, calibration, and active learning tasks. We further demonstrate that NLL_JEF facilitates efficient active learning by quantifying energy and force uncertainties. Using Bayesian active learning by disagreement (BALD), our framework outperforms random sampling and energy-uncertainty-based sampling. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian MLPs achieve competitive accuracy with state-of-the-art models while enabling uncertainty-guided active learning, OOD detection, and energy/forces calibration. This work establishes Bayesian equivariant neural networks as a powerful framework for developing uncertainty-aware MLPs for atomistic simulations at scale.

In text-to-video (T2V) generation, significant attention has been directed toward its development, yet unifying discrete and continuous grounding conditions in T2V generation remains under-explored. This paper proposes a Grounded text-to-Video generation framework, termed GVDIFF. First, we inject the grounding condition into the self-attention through an uncertainty-based representation to explicitly guide the focus of the network. Second, we introduce a spatial-temporal grounding layer that connects the grounding condition with target objects and enables the model with the grounded generation capacity in the spatial-temporal domain. Third, our dynamic gate network adaptively skips the redundant grounding process to selectively extract grounding information and semantics while improving efficiency. We extensively evaluate the grounded generation capacity of GVDIFF and demonstrate its versatility in applications, including long-range video generation, sequential prompts, and object-specific editing.

Existing deep active learning algorithms achieve impressive sampling efficiency on natural language processing tasks. However, they exhibit several weaknesses in practice, including (a) inability to use uncertainty sampling with black-box models, (b) lack of robustness to labeling noise, and (c) lack of transparency. In response, we propose a transparent batch active sampling framework by estimating the error decay curves of multiple feature-defined subsets of the data. Experiments on four named entity recognition (NER) tasks demonstrate that the proposed methods significantly outperform diversification-based methods for black-box NER taggers, and can make the sampling process more robust to labeling noise when combined with uncertainty-based methods. Furthermore, the analysis of experimental results sheds light on the weaknesses of different active sampling strategies, and when traditional uncertainty-based or diversification-based methods can be expected to work well.

Vision-language models with extended reasoning succeed on complex problems, but many real-world problems require external tools that internal reasoning alone often cannot resolve. Agentic reasoning therefore interleaves two behaviors with a structural asymmetry: thinking (the self-contained default) and tool use (a high-variance auxiliary acting). We refer to this asymmetry as the Thinking-Acting Gap. Under standard RL recipes like GRPO, the gap manifests as two diagnostic symptoms during training: tool use is attempted on only ~30% of rollouts, and when attempted, the tool-using rollouts within a group are all-wrong on ~40% of questions, suppressing the learning signal at the tool calls that needed it. We propose AXPO (Agent eXplorative Policy Optimization): for each all-wrong tool-using subgroup, AXPO fixes the thinking prefix and resamples the tool call and its continuation, paired with uncertainty-based prefix selection. Across nine multimodal benchmarks and three scales of Qwen3-VL-Thinking, SFT+AXPO outperforms SFT+GRPO at average (+1.8pp Pass@1 and +1.8pp Pass@4 at 8B on average) and 8B with SFT+AXPO surpasses the 32B Base on Pass@4 with 4 times fewer parameters.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) excel in vision-language tasks but also pose significant risks of generating harmful content, particularly through jailbreak attacks. Jailbreak attacks refer to intentional manipulations that bypass safety mechanisms in models, leading to the generation of inappropriate or unsafe content. Detecting such attacks is critical to ensuring the responsible deployment of MLLMs. Existing jailbreak detection methods face three primary challenges: (1) Many rely on model hidden states or gradients, limiting their applicability to white-box models, where the internal workings of the model are accessible; (2) They involve high computational overhead from uncertainty-based analysis, which limits real-time detection, and (3) They require fully labeled harmful datasets, which are often scarce in real-world settings. To address these issues, we introduce a test-time adaptive framework called JAILDAM. Our method leverages a memory-based approach guided by policy-driven unsafe knowledge representations, eliminating the need for explicit exposure to harmful data. By dynamically updating unsafe knowledge during test-time, our framework improves generalization to unseen jailbreak strategies while maintaining efficiency. Experiments on multiple VLM jailbreak benchmarks demonstrate that JAILDAM delivers state-of-the-art performance in harmful content detection, improving both accuracy and speed.

Active learning (AL) has the potential to drastically reduce annotation costs in 3D biomedical image segmentation, where expert labeling of volumetric data is both time-consuming and expensive. Yet, existing AL methods are unable to consistently outperform improved random sampling baselines adapted to 3D data, leaving the field without a reliable solution. We introduce Class-stratified Scheduled Power Predictive Entropy (ClaSP PE), a simple and effective query strategy that addresses two key limitations of standard uncertainty-based AL methods: class imbalance and redundancy in early selections. ClaSP PE combines class-stratified querying to ensure coverage of underrepresented structures and log-scale power noising with a decaying schedule to enforce query diversity in early-stage AL and encourage exploitation later. In our evaluation on 24 experimental settings using four 3D biomedical datasets within the comprehensive nnActive benchmark, ClaSP PE is the only method that generally outperforms improved random baselines in terms of both segmentation quality with statistically significant gains, whilst remaining annotation efficient. Furthermore, we explicitly simulate the real-world application by testing our method on four previously unseen datasets without manual adaptation, where all experiment parameters are set according to predefined guidelines. The results confirm that ClaSP PE robustly generalizes to novel tasks without requiring dataset-specific tuning. Within the nnActive framework, we present compelling evidence that an AL method can consistently outperform random baselines adapted to 3D segmentation, in terms of both performance and annotation efficiency in a realistic, close-to-production scenario. Our open-source implementation and clear deployment guidelines make it readily applicable in practice. Code is at https://github.com/MIC-DKFZ/nnActive.

A significant use case of instruction-finetuned Large Language Models (LLMs) is to solve question-answering tasks interactively. In this setting, an LLM agent is tasked with making a prediction by sequentially querying relevant information from the user, as opposed to a single-turn conversation. This paper explores sequential querying strategies that aim to minimize the expected number of queries. One such strategy is Information Pursuit (IP), a greedy algorithm that at each iteration selects the query that maximizes information gain or equivalently minimizes uncertainty. However, obtaining accurate estimates of mutual information or conditional entropy for LLMs is very difficult in practice due to over- or under-confident LLM probabilities, which leads to suboptimal query selection and predictive performance. To better estimate the uncertainty at each iteration, we propose Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP), an alternative approach to sequential information gain based on conformal prediction sets. More specifically, C-IP leverages a relationship between prediction sets and conditional entropy at each iteration to estimate uncertainty based on the average size of conformal prediction sets. In contrast to conditional entropy, we find that conformal prediction sets are a distribution-free and robust method of measuring uncertainty. Experiments with 20 Questions show that C-IP obtains better predictive performance and shorter query-answer chains compared to previous approaches to IP and uncertainty-based chain-of-thought methods. Furthermore, extending to an interactive medical setting between a doctor and a patient on the MediQ dataset, C-IP achieves competitive performance with direct single-turn prediction while offering greater interpretability.

Although the problem of hallucinations in neural machine translation (NMT) has received some attention, research on this highly pathological phenomenon lacks solid ground. Previous work has been limited in several ways: it often resorts to artificial settings where the problem is amplified, it disregards some (common) types of hallucinations, and it does not validate adequacy of detection heuristics. In this paper, we set foundations for the study of NMT hallucinations. First, we work in a natural setting, i.e., in-domain data without artificial noise neither in training nor in inference. Next, we annotate a dataset of over 3.4k sentences indicating different kinds of critical errors and hallucinations. Then, we turn to detection methods and both revisit methods used previously and propose using glass-box uncertainty-based detectors. Overall, we show that for preventive settings, (i) previously used methods are largely inadequate, (ii) sequence log-probability works best and performs on par with reference-based methods. Finally, we propose DeHallucinator, a simple method for alleviating hallucinations at test time that significantly reduces the hallucinatory rate. To ease future research, we release our annotated dataset for WMT18 German-English data, along with the model, training data, and code.

Until recently, the success of large-scale vision-language models (VLMs) has primarily relied on billion-sample datasets, posing a significant barrier to progress. Latest works have begun to close this gap by improving supervision quality, but each addresses only a subset of the weaknesses in contrastive pretraining. We present GoldiCLIP, a framework built on a Goldilocks principle of finding the right balance of supervision signals. Our multifaceted training framework synergistically combines three key innovations: (1) a text-conditioned self-distillation method to align both text-agnostic and text-conditioned features; (2) an encoder integrated decoder with Visual Question Answering (VQA) objective that enables the encoder to generalize beyond the caption-like queries; and (3) an uncertainty-based weighting mechanism that automatically balances all heterogeneous losses. Trained on just 30 million images, 300x less data than leading methods, GoldiCLIP achieves state-of-the-art among data-efficient approaches, improving over the best comparable baseline by 2.2 points on MSCOCO retrieval, 2.0 on fine-grained retrieval, and 5.9 on question-based retrieval, while remaining competitive with billion-scale models. Project page: https://petsi.uk/goldiclip.

We propose a lightweight explainable guardrail (LEG) method for the classification of unsafe prompts. LEG uses a multi-task learning architecture to jointly learn a prompt classifier and an explanation classifier, where the latter labels prompt words that explain the safe/unsafe overall decision. LEG is trained using synthetic data for explainability, which is generated using a novel strategy that counteracts the confirmation biases of LLMs. Lastly, LEG's training process uses a novel loss that captures global explanation signals and combines cross-entropy and focal losses with uncertainty-based weighting. LEG obtains equivalent or better performance than the state-of-the-art for both prompt classification and explainability, both in-domain and out-of-domain on three datasets, despite the fact that its model size is considerably smaller than current approaches. If accepted, we will release all models and the annotated dataset publicly.

Recent advancements in instruction tuning for large language models (LLMs) suggest that a small, high-quality dataset can significantly equip LLMs with instruction-following capabilities, outperforming large datasets often burdened by quality and redundancy issues. However, the challenge lies in automatically identifying valuable subsets from large datasets to boost both the effectiveness and efficiency of instruction tuning. In this paper, we first establish data selection criteria based on three distinct aspects of data value: diversity, difficulty, and dependability, and then propose the D3 method comprising two key steps of scoring and selection. Specifically, in the scoring step, we define the diversity function to measure sample distinctiveness and introduce the uncertainty-based prediction difficulty to evaluate sample difficulty by mitigating the interference of context-oriented generation diversity. Additionally, we integrate an external LLM for dependability assessment. In the selection step, we formulate the D3 weighted coreset objective, which jointly optimizes three aspects of data value to solve for the most valuable subset. The two steps of D3 can iterate multiple rounds, incorporating feedback to refine the selection focus adaptively. Experiments on both public datasets and the real-world Taobao Live application demonstrate the effectiveness of D3 in endowing LLMs with competitive or even superior instruction-following capabilities using less than 10\% of the entire dataset.

Active learning (AL) is a promising ML paradigm that has the potential to parse through large unlabeled data and help reduce annotation cost in domains where labeling data can be prohibitive. Recently proposed neural network based AL methods use different heuristics to accomplish this goal. In this study, we demonstrate that under identical experimental settings, different types of AL algorithms (uncertainty based, diversity based, and committee based) produce an inconsistent gain over random sampling baseline. Through a variety of experiments, controlling for sources of stochasticity, we show that variance in performance metrics achieved by AL algorithms can lead to results that are not consistent with the previously reported results. We also found that under strong regularization, AL methods show marginal or no advantage over the random sampling baseline under a variety of experimental conditions. Finally, we conclude with a set of recommendations on how to assess the results using a new AL algorithm to ensure results are reproducible and robust under changes in experimental conditions. We share our codes to facilitate AL evaluations. We believe our findings and recommendations will help advance reproducible research in AL using neural networks. We open source our code at https://github.com/PrateekMunjal/TorchAL

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While current efforts focus on improving uncertainty quantification accuracy and efficiency, there is a need to identify uncertainty sources and take actions to mitigate their effects on predictions. Therefore, we propose to develop explainable and actionable Bayesian deep learning methods to not only perform accurate uncertainty quantification but also explain the uncertainties, identify their sources, and propose strategies to mitigate the uncertainty impacts. Specifically, we introduce a gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify the most problematic regions of the input that contribute to the prediction uncertainty. Compared to existing methods, the proposed UA-Backprop has competitive accuracy, relaxed assumptions, and high efficiency. Moreover, we propose an uncertainty mitigation strategy that leverages the attribution results as attention to further improve the model performance. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Monocular depth estimation, similar to other image-based tasks, is prone to erroneous predictions due to ambiguities in the image, for example, caused by dynamic objects or shadows. For this reason, pixel-wise uncertainty assessment is required for safety-critical applications to highlight the areas where the prediction is unreliable. We address this in a post hoc manner and introduce gradient-based uncertainty estimation for already trained depth estimation models. To extract gradients without depending on the ground truth depth, we introduce an auxiliary loss function based on the consistency of the predicted depth and a reference depth. The reference depth, which acts as pseudo ground truth, is in fact generated using a simple image or feature augmentation, making our approach simple and effective. To obtain the final uncertainty score, the derivatives w.r.t. the feature maps from single or multiple layers are calculated using back-propagation. We demonstrate that our gradient-based approach is effective in determining the uncertainty without re-training using the two standard depth estimation benchmarks KITTI and NYU. In particular, for models trained with monocular sequences and therefore most prone to uncertainty, our method outperforms related approaches. In addition, we publicly provide our code and models: https://github.com/jhornauer/GrUMoDepth

Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on estimating the entropy of the distribution of the LLM's potential output sequences. This estimation is based on a set of output sequences and associated probabilities obtained by querying the LLM several times. In this paper, we advocate and experimentally show that the probability of unobserved sequences plays a crucial role, and we recommend future research to integrate it to enhance such LLM uncertainty quantification methods.

Detection Transformer (DETR) and its variants show strong performance on object detection, a key task for autonomous systems. However, a critical limitation of these models is that their confidence scores only reflect semantic uncertainty, failing to capture the equally important spatial uncertainty. This results in an incomplete assessment of the detection reliability. On the other hand, Deep Ensembles can tackle this by providing high-quality spatial uncertainty estimates. However, their immense memory consumption makes them impractical for real-world applications. A cheaper alternative, Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, suffers from high latency due to the need of multiple forward passes during inference to estimate uncertainty. To address these limitations, we introduce GroupEnsemble, an efficient and effective uncertainty estimation method for DETR-like models. GroupEnsemble simultaneously predicts multiple individual detection sets by feeding additional diverse groups of object queries to the transformer decoder during inference. Each query group is transformed by the shared decoder in isolation and predicts a complete detection set for the same input. An attention mask is applied to the decoder to prevent inter-group query interactions, ensuring each group detects independently to achieve reliable ensemble-based uncertainty estimation. By leveraging the decoder's inherent parallelism, GroupEnsemble efficiently estimates uncertainty in a single forward pass without sequential repetition. We validated our method under autonomous driving scenes and common daily scenes using the Cityscapes and COCO datasets, respectively. The results show that a hybrid approach combining MC-Dropout and GroupEnsemble outperforms Deep Ensembles on several metrics at a fraction of the cost. The code is available at https://github.com/yutongy98/GroupEnsemble.

Recent position papers argue that the classical aleatoric/epistemic uncertainty framework is insufficient for interactive large language model (LLM) agents and call for underspecification-aware, decomposed, and communicable uncertainty representations that can unlock new agent capabilities such as proactive clarification seeking and shared mental-model building. Practical deployment constraints -- black-box APIs, interactive latency budgets, and the absence of labeled trajectories -- rule out logprob-based, multi-sampling, and training-based methods, leaving prompt-based estimation as the most viable family for surfacing such signals at deployment time. We answer this call with a simple prompt-based decomposition that separates action confidence from request uncertainty (u), enabling the agent to ask for clarification when the task specification is ambiguous. To evaluate it, we introduce two clarification-augmented benchmarks (WebShop-Clarification and ALFWorld-Clarification) in which 50% of tasks are deliberately underspecified, and systematically compare the proposed decomposition against ReAct+UE and Uncertainty-Aware Memory (UAM) across five LLM backbones (GPT-5.1, DeepSeek-v3.2-exp, GLM-4.7, Qwen3.5-35B, GPT-OSS-120B) on these variants together with the standard WebShop, ALFWorld, and REAL benchmarks for fault detection. Averaged across the five backbones, the proposed decomposition improves clarification F1 on ALFWorld-Clarification by 73% over ReAct+UE and by 36% over UAM, and leads clarification F1 on every backbone on WebShop-Clarification and on four of five backbones on ALFWorld-Clarification, indicating that the gains generalize beyond a single LLM.

Solving complex tasks usually requires LLMs to generate long multi-step reasoning chains. Previous work has shown that verifying the correctness of individual reasoning steps can further improve the performance and efficiency of LLMs on such tasks and enhance solution interpretability. However, existing verification approaches, such as Process Reward Models (PRMs), are either computationally expensive, limited to specific domains, or require large-scale human or model-generated annotations. Thus, we propose a lightweight alternative for step-level reasoning verification based on data-driven uncertainty scores. We train transformer-based uncertainty quantification heads (UHeads) that use the internal states of a frozen LLM to estimate the uncertainty of its reasoning steps during generation. The approach is fully automatic: target labels are generated either by another larger LLM (e.g., DeepSeek R1) or in a self-supervised manner by the original model itself. UHeads are both effective and lightweight, containing less than 10M parameters. Across multiple domains, including mathematics, planning, and general knowledge question answering, they match or even surpass the performance of PRMs that are up to 810x larger. Our findings suggest that the internal states of LLMs encode their uncertainty and can serve as reliable signals for reasoning verification, offering a promising direction toward scalable and generalizable introspective LLMs.

In question-answering tasks, determining when to trust the outputs is crucial to the alignment of large language models (LLMs). Kuhn et al. (2023) introduces semantic entropy as a measure of uncertainty, by incorporating linguistic invariances from the same meaning. It primarily relies on setting threshold to measure the level of semantic equivalence relation. We propose a more nuanced framework that extends beyond such thresholding by developing a Shapley-based uncertainty metric that captures the continuous nature of semantic relationships. We establish three fundamental properties that characterize valid uncertainty metrics and prove that our Shapley uncertainty satisfies these criteria. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our Shapley uncertainty more accurately predicts LLM performance in question-answering and other datasets, compared to similar baseline measures.

We present a scheme to obtain an inexpensive and reliable estimate of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of a machine-learning model of atomic and molecular properties. The scheme is based on resampling, with multiple models being generated based on sub-sampling of the same training data. The accuracy of the uncertainty prediction can be benchmarked by maximum likelihood estimation, which can also be used to correct for correlations between resampled models, and to improve the performance of the uncertainty estimation by a cross-validation procedure. In the case of sparse Gaussian Process Regression models, this resampled estimator can be evaluated at negligible cost. We demonstrate the reliability of these estimates for the prediction of molecular energetics, and for the estimation of nuclear chemical shieldings in molecular crystals. Extension to estimate the uncertainty in energy differences, forces, or other correlated predictions is straightforward. This method can be easily applied to other machine learning schemes, and will be beneficial to make data-driven predictions more reliable, and to facilitate training-set optimization and active-learning strategies.

Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events. This paper proposes Neural Tangent Kernel-based uncertainty quantification (NTK-UQ) using last-layer empirical features. Theoretical analysis predicts that UQ quality is architecture-dependent through two mechanisms. First, a variance collapse mechanism explains when UQ fails: when the eigenvalue truncation rank approaches the effective rank of the feature space, the GP correction term consumes nearly all prior variance, destroying discrimination between tropical cyclones and routine conditions; architectures with concentrated spectra (spectral operators) require aggressive truncation (k leq 10), while attention-based models tolerate full-rank computation. Second, decomposition performance depends on the non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed structure of extreme weather: Independent Component Analysis exploits higher-order statistics (kurtosis, negentropy) to isolate heavy-tailed extreme-event features, achieving higher discrimination than singular value decomposition, which captures only second-order variance. A data-driven selection rule chooses ICA or SVD from the feature eigenspectrum concentration ratio, correctly prescribing the superior decomposition for all four evaluated architectures. Compared to split conformal prediction (the natural post-hoc baseline), NTK-UQ achieves 31--37\% sharper prediction intervals at 90\% coverage, and uniquely produces adaptive intervals that scale with extreme event severity, which conformal prediction cannot achieve by construction. The framework requires no retraining; inference-time uncertainty requires only a single matrix-vector product per sample.

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for medical image segmentation, where automated contours feed downstream quantification and clinical decision support. Many strong uncertainty methods require repeated inference, while efficient single-forward-pass alternatives often provide weaker failure ranking or rely on restrictive feature-space assumptions. We present SegWithU, a post-hoc framework that augments a frozen pretrained segmentation backbone with a lightweight uncertainty head. SegWithU taps intermediate backbone features and models uncertainty as perturbation energy in a compact probe space using rank-1 posterior probes. It produces two voxel-wise uncertainty maps: a calibration-oriented map for probability tempering and a ranking-oriented map for error detection and selective prediction. Across ACDC, BraTS2024, and LiTS, SegWithU is the strongest and most consistent single-forward-pass baseline, achieving AUROC/AURC of 0.9838/2.4885, 0.9946/0.2660, and 0.9925/0.8193, respectively, while preserving segmentation quality. These results suggest that perturbation-based uncertainty modeling is an effective and practical route to reliability-aware medical segmentation. Source code is available at https://github.com/ProjectNeura/SegWithU.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important technique for ensuring the trustworthiness of LLMs, given their tendency to hallucinate. Existing state-of-the-art UQ approaches for free-form generation rely heavily on sampling, which incurs high computational cost and variance. In this work, we propose the first gradient-based UQ method for free-form generation, SemGrad, which is sampling-free and computationally efficient. Unlike prior gradient-based methods developed for classification tasks that operates in parameter space, we propose to consider gradients in semantic space. Our method builds on the key intuition that a confident LLM should maintain stable output distributions under semantically equivalent input perturbations. We interpret the stability as the gradients in semantic space and introduce a Semantic Preservation Score (SPS) to identify embeddings that best capture semantics, with respect to which gradients are computed. We further propose HybridGrad, which combines the strengths of SemGrad and parameter gradients. Experiments demonstrate that both of our methods provide efficient and effective uncertainty estimates, achieving superior performance than state-of-the-art methods, particularly in settings with multiple valid responses.

Correlation based stereo matching has achieved outstanding performance, which pursues cost volume between two feature maps. Unfortunately, current methods with a fixed model do not work uniformly well across various datasets, greatly limiting their real-world applicability. To tackle this issue, this paper proposes a new perspective to dynamically calculate correlation for robust stereo matching. A novel Uncertainty Guided Adaptive Correlation (UGAC) module is introduced to robustly adapt the same model for different scenarios. Specifically, a variance-based uncertainty estimation is employed to adaptively adjust the sampling area during warping operation. Additionally, we improve the traditional non-parametric warping with learnable parameters, such that the position-specific weights can be learned. We show that by empowering the recurrent network with the UGAC module, stereo matching can be exploited more robustly and effectively. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance over the ETH3D, KITTI, and Middlebury datasets when employing the same fixed model over these datasets without any retraining procedure. To target real-time applications, we further design a lightweight model based on UGAC, which also outperforms other methods over KITTI benchmarks with only 0.6 M parameters.

Diffusion models have impressive image generation capability, but low-quality generations still exist, and their identification remains challenging due to the lack of a proper sample-wise metric. To address this, we propose BayesDiff, a pixel-wise uncertainty estimator for generations from diffusion models based on Bayesian inference. In particular, we derive a novel uncertainty iteration principle to characterize the uncertainty dynamics in diffusion, and leverage the last-layer Laplace approximation for efficient Bayesian inference. The estimated pixel-wise uncertainty can not only be aggregated into a sample-wise metric to filter out low-fidelity images but also aids in augmenting successful generations and rectifying artifacts in failed generations in text-to-image tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of BayesDiff and its promise for practical applications.

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to best quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we revisit core concepts to propose a framework for information-theoretic measures of predictive uncertainty. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We extensively evaluate these measures across a broad set of tasks, identifying conditions under which certain measures excel. Our findings show the importance of aligning the choice of uncertainty measure with the predicting model on in-distribution (ID) data, the limitations of epistemic uncertainty measures for out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and that the disentanglement between measures varies substantially between ID and OOD data. Together, these insights provide a more comprehensive understanding of predictive uncertainty measures, revealing their implicit assumptions and relationships.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed to autonomously solve real-world tasks. A key ingredient for this is the LLM Function-Calling paradigm, a widely used approach for equipping LLMs with tool-use capabilities. However, an LLM calling functions incorrectly can have severe implications, especially when their effects are irreversible, e.g., transferring money or deleting data. Hence, it is of paramount importance to consider the LLM's confidence that a function call solves the task correctly prior to executing it. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods can be used to quantify this confidence and prevent potentially incorrect function calls. In this work, we present what is, to our knowledge, the first evaluation of UQ methods for LLM Function-Calling (FC). While multi-sample UQ methods, such as Semantic Entropy, show strong performance for natural language Q&A tasks, we find that in the FC setting, it offers no clear advantage over simple single-sample UQ methods. Additionally, we find that the particularities of FC outputs can be leveraged to improve the performance of existing UQ methods in this setting. Specifically, multi-sample UQ methods benefit from clustering FC outputs based on their abstract syntax tree parsing, while single-sample UQ methods can be improved by selecting only semantically meaningful tokens when calculating logit-based uncertainty scores.

Subset selection-based methods are widely used to explain deep vision models: they attribute predictions by highlighting the most influential image regions and support object-level explanations. While these methods perform well in in-distribution (ID) settings, their behavior under out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions remains poorly understood. Through extensive experiments across multiple ID-OOD sets, we find that reliability of the existing subset based methods degrades markedly, yielding redundant, unstable, and uncertainty-sensitive explanations. To address these shortcomings, we introduce a framework that combines submodular subset selection with layer-wise, gradient-based uncertainty estimation to improve robustness and fidelity without requiring additional training or auxiliary models. Our approach estimates uncertainty via adaptive weight perturbations and uses these estimates to guide submodular optimization, ensuring diverse and informative subset selection. Empirical evaluations show that, beyond mitigating the weaknesses of existing methods under OOD scenarios, our framework also yields improvements in ID settings. These findings highlight limitations of current subset-based approaches and demonstrate how uncertainty-driven optimization can enhance attribution and object-level interpretability, paving the way for more transparent and trustworthy AI in real-world vision applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally expensive or lack calibration. We propose a three-stage pipeline to post-train LLMs to efficiently infer calibrated uncertainty estimates for their responses. First, we compute fine-grained entropy-based uncertainty scores on the training data, capturing the distributional variability of model outputs in embedding space. Second, these scores are calibrated via Platt scaling, producing reliable and human-interpretable uncertainty signals. Finally, the target LLM is post-trained via reinforcement learning to align its policy with these calibrated signals through a verifiable reward function. Unlike post-hoc uncertainty estimation methods, our approach provides interpretable and computationally efficient uncertainty estimates at test time. Experiments show that models trained with our pipeline achieve better calibration than baselines and generalize to unseen tasks without further processing, suggesting that they learn a robust uncertainty reasoning behavior.

Template-based segmentation, a widely used paradigm in medical imaging, propagates anatomical labels via deformable registration from a labeled atlas to a target image, and is often used to compute volumetric biomarkers for downstream decision-making. While conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample valid intervals for scalar metrics, existing segmentation-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches either rely on learned model features, often unavailable in classic template-based pipelines, or treat the registration process as a black box, resulting in overly conservative intervals when applied directly in output space. We introduce ConVOLT, a CP framework that achieves efficient volumetric UQ by conditioning calibration on properties of the estimated deformation field from template-based segmentation. ConVOLT calibrates a learned volumetric scaling factor from deformation space features. We evaluate ConVOLT on template-based segmentation tasks involving global, regional, and label volumetry across multiple datasets and registration methods. ConVOLT achieves target coverage while producing substantially tighter intervals than output-space conformal baselines. Our work paves way to exploit the registration process for efficient UQ in medical imaging pipelines.

We propose a novel method to capture data points near decision boundary in neural network that are often referred to a specific type of uncertainty. In our approach, we sought to perform uncertainty estimation based on the idea of adversarial attack method. In this paper, uncertainty estimates are derived from the input perturbations, unlike previous studies that provide perturbations on the model's parameters as in Bayesian approach. We are able to produce uncertainty with couple of perturbations on the inputs. Interestingly, we apply the proposed method to datasets derived from blockchain. We compare the performance of model uncertainty with the most recent uncertainty methods. We show that the proposed method has revealed a significant outperformance over other methods and provided less risk to capture model uncertainty in machine learning.

As LLM-based judges become integral to industry applications, obtaining well-calibrated uncertainty estimates efficiently has become critical for production deployment. However, existing techniques, such as verbalized confidence and multi-generation methods, are often either poorly calibrated or computationally expensive. We introduce linear probes trained with a Brier score-based loss to provide calibrated uncertainty estimates from reasoning judges' hidden states, requiring no additional model training. We evaluate our approach on both objective tasks (reasoning, mathematics, factuality, coding) and subjective human preference judgments. Our results demonstrate that probes achieve superior calibration compared to existing methods with approx10x computational savings, generalize robustly to unseen evaluation domains, and deliver higher accuracy on high-confidence predictions. However, probes produce conservative estimates that underperform on easier datasets but may benefit safety-critical deployments prioritizing low false-positive rates. Overall, our work demonstrates that interpretability-based uncertainty estimation provides a practical and scalable plug-and-play solution for LLM judges in production.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for enhancing the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes applications. Existing methods often overlook semantic dependencies, relying on token-level probability measures that fail to capture structural relationships within the generated text. We propose GENUINE: Graph ENhanced mUlti-level uncertaINty Estimation for Large Language Models, a structure-aware framework that leverages dependency parse trees and hierarchical graph pooling to refine uncertainty quantification. By incorporating supervised learning, GENUINE effectively models semantic and structural relationships, improving confidence assessments. Extensive experiments across NLP tasks show that GENUINE achieves up to 29% higher AUROC than semantic entropy-based approaches and reduces calibration errors by over 15%, demonstrating the effectiveness of graph-based uncertainty modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/ODYSSEYWT/GUQ.

Uncertainty sampling in active learning is heavily used in practice to reduce the annotation cost. However, there has been no wide consensus on the function to be used for uncertainty estimation in binary classification tasks and convergence guarantees of the corresponding active learning algorithms are not well understood. The situation is even more challenging for multi-category classification. In this work, we propose an efficient uncertainty estimator for binary classification which we also extend to multiple classes, and provide a non-asymptotic rate of convergence for our uncertainty sampling-based active learning algorithm in both cases under no-noise conditions (i.e., linearly separable data). We also extend our analysis to the noisy case and provide theoretical guarantees for our algorithm under the influence of noise in the task of binary and multi-class classification.

Learning robotic manipulation policies directly in the real world can be expensive and time-consuming. While reinforcement learning (RL) policies trained in simulation present a scalable alternative, effective sim-to-real transfer remains challenging, particularly for tasks that require precise dynamics. To address this, we propose Phys2Real, a real-to-sim-to-real RL pipeline that combines vision-language model (VLM)-inferred physical parameter estimates with interactive adaptation through uncertainty-aware fusion. Our approach consists of three core components: (1) high-fidelity geometric reconstruction with 3D Gaussian splatting, (2) VLM-inferred prior distributions over physical parameters, and (3) online physical parameter estimation from interaction data. Phys2Real conditions policies on interpretable physical parameters, refining VLM predictions with online estimates via ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. On planar pushing tasks of a T-block with varying center of mass (CoM) and a hammer with an off-center mass distribution, Phys2Real achieves substantial improvements over a domain randomization baseline: 100% vs 79% success rate for the bottom-weighted T-block, 57% vs 23% in the challenging top-weighted T-block, and 15% faster average task completion for hammer pushing. Ablation studies indicate that the combination of VLM and interaction information is essential for success. Project website: https://phys2real.github.io/ .

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks by encoding vast amounts of factual knowledge. However, they are still prone to hallucinations, generating incorrect or misleading information, often accompanied by high uncertainty. Existing methods for hallucination detection primarily focus on quantifying internal uncertainty, which arises from missing or conflicting knowledge within the model. However, hallucinations can also stem from external uncertainty, where ambiguous user queries lead to multiple possible interpretations. In this work, we introduce Semantic Volume, a novel mathematical measure for quantifying both external and internal uncertainty in LLMs. Our approach perturbs queries and responses, embeds them in a semantic space, and computes the determinant of the Gram matrix of the embedding vectors, capturing their dispersion as a measure of uncertainty. Our framework provides a generalizable and unsupervised uncertainty detection method without requiring white-box access to LLMs. We conduct extensive experiments on both external and internal uncertainty detection, demonstrating that our Semantic Volume method consistently outperforms existing baselines in both tasks. Additionally, we provide theoretical insights linking our measure to differential entropy, unifying and extending previous sampling-based uncertainty measures such as the semantic entropy. Semantic Volume is shown to be a robust and interpretable approach to improving the reliability of LLMs by systematically detecting uncertainty in both user queries and model responses.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains, yet remain susceptible to hallucinations. While prior works have proposed confidence representation methods for hallucination detection, most of these approaches rely on computationally expensive sampling strategies and often disregard the distinction between hallucination types. In this work, we introduce a principled evaluation framework that differentiates between extrinsic and intrinsic hallucination categories and evaluates detection performance across a suite of curated benchmarks. In addition, we leverage a recent attention-based uncertainty quantification algorithm and propose novel attention aggregation strategies that improve both interpretability and hallucination detection performance. Our experimental findings reveal that sampling-based methods like Semantic Entropy are effective for detecting extrinsic hallucinations but generally fail on intrinsic ones. In contrast, our method, which aggregates attention over input tokens, is better suited for intrinsic hallucinations. These insights provide new directions for aligning detection strategies with the nature of hallucination and highlight attention as a rich signal for quantifying model uncertainty.

Recent offline meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) methods typically utilize task-dependent behavior policies (e.g., training RL agents on each individual task) to collect a multi-task dataset. However, these methods always require extra information for fast adaptation, such as offline context for testing tasks. To address this problem, we first formally characterize a unique challenge in offline meta-RL: transition-reward distribution shift between offline datasets and online adaptation. Our theory finds that out-of-distribution adaptation episodes may lead to unreliable policy evaluation and that online adaptation with in-distribution episodes can ensure adaptation performance guarantee. Based on these theoretical insights, we propose a novel adaptation framework, called In-Distribution online Adaptation with uncertainty Quantification (IDAQ), which generates in-distribution context using a given uncertainty quantification and performs effective task belief inference to address new tasks. We find a return-based uncertainty quantification for IDAQ that performs effectively. Experiments show that IDAQ achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Meta-World ML1 benchmark compared to baselines with/without offline adaptation.

Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and accordingly unpromising performance especially on tail classes. Recently, the ensembling based methods achieve the state-of-the-art performance and show great potential. However, there are two limitations for current methods. First, their predictions are not trustworthy for failure-sensitive applications. This is especially harmful for the tail classes where the wrong predictions is basically frequent. Second, they assign unified numbers of experts to all samples, which is redundant for easy samples with excessive computational cost. To address these issues, we propose a Trustworthy Long-tailed Classification (TLC) method to jointly conduct classification and uncertainty estimation to identify hard samples in a multi-expert framework. Our TLC obtains the evidence-based uncertainty (EvU) and evidence for each expert, and then combines these uncertainties and evidences under the Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory (DST). Moreover, we propose a dynamic expert engagement to reduce the number of engaged experts for easy samples and achieve efficiency while maintaining promising performances. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on the tasks of classification, tail detection, OOD detection and failure prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed TLC outperforms existing methods and is trustworthy with reliable uncertainty.

Proteolysis-targeting chimeras (PROTACs) represent a promising therapeutic modality that induces targeted protein degradation by hijacking the ubiquitin-proteasome system. However, rational PROTAC design remains challenging due to the complex interplay between molecular structure, target proteins, E3 ligases, and the cellular context. We present TACK, a statistical evaluation of degradation activity on a novel TArgeting Chimeras Knowledge dataset of 3,514 PROTACs and 6,561 degradation endpoints aggregated from three major repositories with standardized molecular representations, protein annotations, and experimental conditions. Using scaffold-based 5times5 cross-validation, we perform a rigorous statistical comparison of three machine learning methods to predict PROTAC degradation activity across three tasks: DC_{50} and Dmax regression, and binary activity classification. Feature ablation demonstrates that cellular context features and simple protein representations rival complex ESM protein embeddings, highlighting the importance of feature engineering over architectural sophistication. Models trained on the best performing features show that potency (pDC_{50}, R^2=0.66) is substantially more predictable than maximum degradation (Dmax, R^2=0.36). In activity prediction, statistical tests support that classical methods (XGBoost and MLP) significantly outperform PROTAC-STAN, a domain-specific graph neural network model (ROC-AUC: 0.85 vs. 0.74, p<0.001). Finally, we propose an ensemble-based uncertainty quantification approach showing that prediction variance correlates with prediction error (pDC_{50}: Spearman ρ=0.36, p<0.001; Dmax: ρ=0.69, p<0.001), enabling confidence-aware experimental prioritization. Our findings challenge assumptions about specialized architectures for degradation prediction and provide evidence-based guidance for ML-driven PROTAC assessment.

We consider the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem with spectral risk-based uncertainty set and f-divergence penalty. This formulation includes common risk-sensitive learning objectives such as regularized condition value-at-risk (CVaR) and average top-k loss. We present Prospect, a stochastic gradient-based algorithm that only requires tuning a single learning rate hyperparameter, and prove that it enjoys linear convergence for smooth regularized losses. This contrasts with previous algorithms that either require tuning multiple hyperparameters or potentially fail to converge due to biased gradient estimates or inadequate regularization. Empirically, we show that Prospect can converge 2-3times faster than baselines such as stochastic gradient and stochastic saddle-point methods on distribution shift and fairness benchmarks spanning tabular, vision, and language domains.

Hallucination remains a critical challenge in large language models (LLMs), hindering the development of reliable multimodal LLMs (MLLMs). Existing solutions often rely on human intervention or underutilize the agent's ability to autonomously mitigate hallucination. To address these limitations, we draw inspiration from how humans make reliable decisions in the real world. They begin with introspective reasoning to reduce uncertainty and form an initial judgment, then rely on external verification from diverse perspectives to reach a final decision. Motivated by this cognitive paradigm, we propose InEx, a training-free, multi-agent framework designed to autonomously mitigate hallucination. InEx introduces internal introspective reasoning, guided by entropy-based uncertainty estimation, to improve the reliability of the decision agent's reasoning process. The agent first generates a response, which is then iteratively verified and refined through external cross-modal multi-agent collaboration with the editing agent and self-reflection agents, further enhancing reliability and mitigating hallucination. Extensive experiments show that InEx consistently outperforms existing methods, achieving 4%-27% gains on general and hallucination benchmarks, and demonstrating strong robustness.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as judges to replace costly human preference labels in pairwise evaluation. Despite their practicality, LLM judges remain prone to miscalibration and systematic biases. This paper proposes SCOPE (Selective Conformal Optimized Pairwise Evaluation), a framework for selective pairwise judging with finite-sample statistical guarantees. Under exchangeability, SCOPE calibrates an acceptance threshold such that the error rate among non-abstained judgments is at most a user-specified level α. To provide SCOPE with a bias-neutral uncertainty signal, we introduce Bidirectional Preference Entropy (BPE), which queries the judge under both response positions, aggregates the implied preference probabilities to enforce invariance to response order, and converts the aggregated probability into an entropy-based uncertainty score. Across MT-Bench, RewardBench, and Chatbot Arena, BPE improves uncertainty quality over standard confidence proxies, providing a stronger selection signal that enables SCOPE to consistently meet the target risk level while retaining good coverage across judge scales. In particular, at α= 0.10, SCOPE consistently satisfies the risk bound across all benchmarks and judge scales (empirical risk approx 0.097 to 0.099), while retaining substantial coverage, reaching 0.89 on RewardBench with Qwen-14B and 0.98 on RewardBench with Qwen-32B. Compared to naïve baselines, SCOPE accepts up to 2.4times more judgments on MT-Bench with Qwen-7B under the same target risk constraint, demonstrating that BPE enables reliable and high-coverage LLM-based evaluation.

Large Language Models~(LLMs) are prone to hallucinations, and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) helps mitigate this, but at a high computational cost while risking misinformation. Adaptive retrieval aims to retrieve only when necessary, but existing approaches rely on LLM-based uncertainty estimation, which remain inefficient and impractical. In this study, we introduce lightweight LLM-independent adaptive retrieval methods based on external information. We investigated 27 features, organized into 7 groups, and their hybrid combinations. We evaluated these methods on 6 QA datasets, assessing the QA performance and efficiency. The results show that our approach matches the performance of complex LLM-based methods while achieving significant efficiency gains, demonstrating the potential of external information for adaptive retrieval.

Self-consistency detects hallucinations by generating multiple sampled answers to a question and measuring agreement, but this requires repeated decoding and can be sensitive to lexical variation. Semantic self-consistency improves this by clustering sampled answers by meaning using natural language inference, but it adds both sampling cost and external inference overhead. We show that first-token confidence, phi_first, computed from the normalized entropy of the top-K logits at the first content-bearing answer token of a single greedy decode, matches or modestly exceeds semantic self-consistency on closed-book short-answer factual question answering. Across three 7-8B instruction-tuned models and two benchmarks, phi_first achieves a mean AUROC of 0.820, compared with 0.793 for semantic agreement and 0.791 for standard surface-form self-consistency. A subsumption test shows that phi_first is moderately to strongly correlated with semantic agreement, and combining the two signals yields only a small AUROC improvement over phi_first alone. These results suggest that much of the uncertainty information captured by multi-sample agreement is already available in the model's initial token distribution. We argue that phi_first should be reported as a default low-cost baseline before invoking sampling-based uncertainty estimation.

Real-world data streams exhibit inherent non-stationarity characterized by concept drift, posing significant challenges for adaptive learning systems. While existing methods address isolated distribution shifts, they overlook the critical co-evolution of label spaces and distributions under limited supervision and persistent uncertainty. To address this, we formalize Generalized Incremental Learning under Concept Drift (GILCD), characterizing the joint evolution of distributions and label spaces in open-environment streaming contexts, and propose a novel framework called Calibrated Source-Free Adaptation (CSFA). First, CSFA introduces a training-free prototype calibration mechanism that dynamically fuses emerging prototypes with base representations, enabling stable new-class identification without optimization overhead. Second, we design a novel source-free adaptation algorithm, i.e., Reliable Surrogate Gap Sharpness-aware (RSGS) minimization. It integrates sharpness-aware perturbation loss optimization with surrogate gap minimization, while employing entropy-based uncertainty filtering to discard unreliable samples. This mechanism ensures robust distribution alignment and mitigates generalization degradation caused by uncertainties. Therefore, CSFA establishes a unified framework for stable adaptation to evolving semantics and distributions in open-world streaming scenarios. Extensive experiments validate the superior performance and effectiveness of CSFA compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

Neural implicit representation has attracted attention in 3D reconstruction through various success cases. For further applications such as scene understanding or editing, several works have shown progress towards object compositional reconstruction. Despite their superior performance in observed regions, their performance is still limited in reconstructing objects that are partially observed. To better treat this problem, we introduce category-level neural fields that learn meaningful common 3D information among objects belonging to the same category present in the scene. Our key idea is to subcategorize objects based on their observed shape for better training of the category-level model. Then we take advantage of the neural field to conduct the challenging task of registering partially observed objects by selecting and aligning against representative objects selected by ray-based uncertainty. Experiments on both simulation and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method improves the reconstruction of unobserved parts for several categories.

Large audio-language models (LALMs) show strong zero-shot ability on speech tasks, suggesting promise for speech emotion recognition (SER). However, SER in real-world deployments often fails under domain mismatch, where source data are unavailable and powerful LALMs are accessible only through an API. We ask: given only unlabeled target-domain audio and an API-only LALM, can a student model be adapted to outperform the LALM in the target domain? To this end, we propose MI-Fuse, a denoised label fusion framework that supplements the LALM with a source-domain trained SER classifier as an auxiliary teacher. The framework draws multiple stochastic predictions from both teachers, weights their mean distributions by mutual-information-based uncertainty, and stabilizes training with an exponential moving average teacher. Experiments across three public emotion datasets and six cross-domain transfers show consistent gains, with the student surpassing the LALM and outperforming the strongest baseline by 3.9%. This approach strengthens emotion-aware speech systems without sharing source data, enabling realistic adaptation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress across reasoning, generation, and decision-making tasks, yet deploying them on mobile, embedded, and edge devices remains particularly challenging. On-device LLM inference is heavily constrained by the memory and bandwidth overhead of the key-value (KV) cache, which grows linearly with context length and often dominates decoding cost. Existing KV-cache quantization schemes typically rely on fixed precision or hand-crafted heuristics, thereby wasting bits on low-impact tokens while over-compressing informative ones, leading to avoidable accuracy degradation. Inspired by Huffman coding's principle of variable-length allocation, we propose adaptive KV-cache quantization, a learned policy that assigns bit-width proportional to token importance, minimizing expected memory and latency without sacrificing competitive accuracy. Our framework extracts lightweight token-level features, including token frequency, quality score, attention variance, and entropy-based uncertainty, and feeds them into a compact data-driven controller that dynamically selects KV precision from {2-bit, 4-bit, 8-bit, FP16} during decoding. This adaptive precision policy reduces KV memory footprint and latency while improving accuracy compared to static KV quantization and rule-based baselines, and maintaining competitive accuracy close to FP16 inference across standard LLM benchmarks. Extensive experiments across multiple commonsense reasoning benchmarks using SmolLM-135M, SmolLM-360M, and SmolLM-1.7B demonstrate that our controller consistently improves the accuracy-latency trade-off. For instance, with SmolLM-360M on HellaSwag, our method reduces decoding latency (ms/token) by 17.75% relative to static KV quantization, improves accuracy by 7.60 points, and remains within only 0.30 points of FP16 inference.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have demonstrated strong multimodal reasoning capabilities on long and complex documents. However, their high memory footprint makes them impractical for deployment on resource-constrained edge devices. We present DocSLM, an efficient Small Vision-Language Model designed for long-document understanding under constrained memory resources. DocSLM incorporates a Hierarchical Multimodal Compressor that jointly encodes visual, textual, and layout information from each page into a fixed-length sequence, greatly reducing memory consumption while preserving both local and global semantics. To enable scalable processing over arbitrarily long inputs, we introduce a Streaming Abstention mechanism that operates on document segments sequentially and filters low-confidence responses using an entropy-based uncertainty calibrator. Across multiple long multimodal document benchmarks, DocSLM matches or surpasses state-of-the-art methods while using 82\% fewer visual tokens, 75\% fewer parameters, and 71\% lower latency, delivering reliable multimodal document understanding on lightweight edge devices. Code and Model are available in https://github.com/Tanveer81/DocSLM.git.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for the safe clinical deployment of medical image segmentation systems, enabling the identification of unreliable predictions and supporting human oversight. While prior work has largely focused on pixel-level uncertainty, landmark-based segmentation offers inherent topological guarantees yet remains underexplored from an uncertainty perspective. In this work, we study uncertainty estimation for anatomical landmark-based segmentation on chest X-rays. Inspired by hybrid neural network architectures that combine standard image convolutional encoders with graph-based generative decoders, and leveraging their variational latent space, we derive two complementary measures: (i) latent uncertainty, captured directly from the learned distribution parameters, and (ii) predictive uncertainty, obtained by generating multiple stochastic output predictions from latent samples. Through controlled corruption experiments we show that both uncertainty measures increase with perturbation severity, reflecting both global and local degradation. We demonstrate that these uncertainty signals can identify unreliable predictions by comparing with manual ground-truth, and support out-of-distribution detection on the CheXmask dataset. More importantly, we release CheXmask-U (huggingface.co/datasets/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U), a large scale dataset of 657,566 chest X-ray landmark segmentations with per-node uncertainty estimates, enabling researchers to account for spatial variations in segmentation quality when using these anatomical masks. Our findings establish uncertainty estimation as a promising direction to enhance robustness and safe deployment of landmark-based anatomical segmentation methods in chest X-ray. A fully working interactive demo of the method is available at huggingface.co/spaces/matiasky/CheXmask-U and the source code at github.com/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U.

The output of Large Language Models (LLMs) are a function of the internal model's parameters and the input provided into the context window. The hypothesis presented here is that under a greedy sampling strategy the variance in the LLM's output is a function of the conceptual certainty embedded in the model's parametric knowledge, as well as the lexical variance in the input. Finetuning the model results in reducing the sensitivity of the model output to the lexical input variations. This is then applied to a classification problem and a probabilistic method is proposed for estimating the certainties of the predicted classes.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making, the ability to reliably quantify uncertainty has become a critical requirement for safety and trust. However, current uncertainty quantification methods primarily operate at the output level, often failing to distinguish whether uncertainty arises from the model's lack of knowledge or from ambiguity in the user's input. While input-centric uncertainty quantification has recently emerged as a promising direction, it remains relatively underexplored and typically relies on coarse, input-level information. Consequently, users are provided with scalar uncertainty scores that offer little actionable guidance on which parts of the input should be clarified to improve reliability. To address this limitation, we propose Shapley-based input uncertainty Quantification (ShaQ), a framework for span-level attribution of input-induced uncertainty. Our approach models ambiguous spans in the input as players in a cooperative game and quantifies their contributions using Shapley values, defined via the weighted average of marginal reductions in conditional entropy obtained by clarifying each span coalition. Unlike existing input-level approaches, our formulation captures complex interactions among spans and provides a principled decomposition in which individual attributions sum exactly to the total input-induced uncertainty. We evaluate ShaQ on the AmbigQA and AmbiEnt benchmarks, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance in ambiguity detection. We further demonstrate its utility on MediTOD, showing that ShaQ can localize under-specified clinical utterances and facilitate human-AI collaboration in high-stakes settings. Overall, ShaQ improves uncertainty estimation and provides actionable insights for targeted input clarification.

Large language models(LLMs) excel at text generation and knowledge question-answering tasks, but they are prone to generating hallucinated content, severely limiting their application in high-risk domains. Current hallucination detection methods based on uncertainty estimation and external knowledge retrieval suffer from the limitation that they still produce erroneous content at high confidence levels and rely heavily on retrieval efficiency and knowledge coverage. In contrast, probe methods that leverage the model's hidden-layer states offer real-time and lightweight advantages. However, traditional linear probes struggle to capture nonlinear structures in deep semantic spaces.To overcome these limitations, we propose a neural network-based framework for token-level hallucination detection. By freezing language model parameters, we employ lightweight MLP probes to perform nonlinear modeling of high-level hidden states. A multi-objective joint loss function is designed to enhance detection stability and semantic disambiguity. Additionally, we establish a layer position-probe performance response model, using Bayesian optimization to automatically search for optimal probe insertion layers and achieve superior training results.Experimental results on LongFact, HealthBench, and TriviaQA demonstrate that MLP probes significantly outperform state-of-the-art methods in accuracy, recall, and detection capability under low false-positive conditions.

Knowledge distillation establishes a learning paradigm that leverages both data supervision and teacher guidance. However, determining the optimal balance between learning from data and learning from the teacher is challenging, as some samples may be noisy while others are subject to teacher uncertainty. This motivates the need for adaptively balancing data and teacher supervision. We propose Beta-weighted Knowledge Distillation (Beta-KD), an uncertainty-aware distillation framework that adaptively modulates how much the student relies on teacher guidance. Specifically, we formulate teacher--student learning from a unified Bayesian perspective and interpret teacher supervision as a Gibbs prior over student activations. This yields a closed-form, uncertainty-aware weighting mechanism and supports arbitrary distillation objectives and their combinations. Extensive experiments on multimodal VQA benchmarks demonstrate that distilling student Vision-Language Models from a large teacher VLM consistently improves performance. The results show that Beta-KD outperforms existing knowledge distillation methods. The code is available at https://github.com/Jingchensun/beta-kd.

In long-horizon tasks, recent agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs) face a significant challenge that sparse, outcome-based rewards make it difficult to assign credit to intermediate steps. Previous methods mainly focus on creating dense reward signals to guide learning, either through traditional reinforcement learning techniques like inverse reinforcement learning or by using Process Reward Models for step-by-step feedback. In this paper, we identify a fundamental problem in the learning dynamics of LLMs: the magnitude of policy gradients is inherently coupled with the entropy, which leads to inefficient small updates for confident correct actions and potentially destabilizes large updates for uncertain ones. To resolve this, we propose Entropy-Modulated Policy Gradients (EMPG), a framework that re-calibrates the learning signal based on step-wise uncertainty and the final task outcome. EMPG amplifies updates for confident correct actions, penalizes confident errors, and attenuates updates from uncertain steps to stabilize exploration. We further introduce a bonus term for future clarity that encourages agents to find more predictable solution paths. Through comprehensive experiments on three challenging agent tasks, WebShop, ALFWorld, and Deep Search, we demonstrate that EMPG achieves substantial performance gains and significantly outperforms strong policy gradient baselines. Project page is at https://empgseed-seed.github.io/

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models leverage pretrained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) as backbones to map images and instructions to actions, demonstrating remarkable potential for generalizable robotic manipulation. To enhance performance, existing methods often incorporate extra observation cues (e.g., depth maps, point clouds) or auxiliary modules (e.g., object detectors, encoders) to enable more precise and reliable task execution, yet these typically require costly data collection and additional training. Inspired by the finding that Feed-Forward Network (FFN) in language models can act as "key-value memory", we propose Uncertainty-aware Observation Reinjection (UAOR), an effective, training-free and plug-and-play module for VLA models. Specifically, when the current language model layer exhibits high uncertainty, measured by Action Entropy, it reinjects key observation information into the next layer's Feed-Forward Network (FFN) through attention retrieval. This mechanism helps VLAs better attend to observations during inference, enabling more confident and faithful action generation. Comprehensive experiments show that our method consistently improves diverse VLA models across simulation and real-world tasks with minimal overhead. Notably, UAOR eliminates the need for additional observation cues or modules, making it a versatile and practical plug-in for existing VLA pipelines. The project page is at https://uaor.jiabingyang.cn.

Large language models (LLMs) are notorious for hallucinating, i.e., producing erroneous claims in their output. Such hallucinations can be dangerous, as occasional factual inaccuracies in the generated text might be obscured by the rest of the output being generally factual, making it extremely hard for the users to spot them. Current services that leverage LLMs usually do not provide any means for detecting unreliable generations. Here, we aim to bridge this gap. In particular, we propose a novel fact-checking and hallucination detection pipeline based on token-level uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty scores leverage information encapsulated in the output of a neural network or its layers to detect unreliable predictions, and we show that they can be used to fact-check the atomic claims in the LLM output. Moreover, we present a novel token-level uncertainty quantification method that removes the impact of uncertainty about what claim to generate on the current step and what surface form to use. Our method Claim Conditioned Probability (CCP) measures only the uncertainty of particular claim value expressed by the model. Experiments on the task of biography generation demonstrate strong improvements for CCP compared to the baselines for six different LLMs and three languages. Human evaluation reveals that the fact-checking pipeline based on uncertainty quantification is competitive with a fact-checking tool that leverages external knowledge.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit a wide range of promising capabilities -- from step-by-step planning to commonsense reasoning -- that may provide utility for robots, but remain prone to confidently hallucinated predictions. In this work, we present KnowNo, which is a framework for measuring and aligning the uncertainty of LLM-based planners such that they know when they don't know and ask for help when needed. KnowNo builds on the theory of conformal prediction to provide statistical guarantees on task completion while minimizing human help in complex multi-step planning settings. Experiments across a variety of simulated and real robot setups that involve tasks with different modes of ambiguity (e.g., from spatial to numeric uncertainties, from human preferences to Winograd schemas) show that KnowNo performs favorably over modern baselines (which may involve ensembles or extensive prompt tuning) in terms of improving efficiency and autonomy, while providing formal assurances. KnowNo can be used with LLMs out of the box without model-finetuning, and suggests a promising lightweight approach to modeling uncertainty that can complement and scale with the growing capabilities of foundation models. Website: https://robot-help.github.io

In the real world, image degradations caused by rain often exhibit a combination of rain streaks and raindrops, thereby increasing the challenges of recovering the underlying clean image. Note that the rain streaks and raindrops have diverse shapes, sizes, and locations in the captured image, and thus modeling the correlation relationship between irregular degradations caused by rain artifacts is a necessary prerequisite for image deraining. This paper aims to present an efficient and flexible mechanism to learn and model degradation relationships in a global view, thereby achieving a unified removal of intricate rain scenes. To do so, we propose a Sparse Sampling Transformer based on Uncertainty-Driven Ranking, dubbed UDR-S2Former. Compared to previous methods, our UDR-S2Former has three merits. First, it can adaptively sample relevant image degradation information to model underlying degradation relationships. Second, explicit application of the uncertainty-driven ranking strategy can facilitate the network to attend to degradation features and understand the reconstruction process. Finally, experimental results show that our UDR-S2Former clearly outperforms state-of-the-art methods for all benchmarks.

An utterance-level speaker embedding is typically obtained by aggregating a sequence of frame-level representations. However, in real-world scenarios, individual frames encode not only speaker-relevant information but also various nuisance factors. As a result, different frames contribute unequally to the final utterance-level speaker representation for Automatic Speaker Verification systems. To address this issue, we propose to estimate the inherent uncertainty of each frame and assign adaptive weights accordingly, where frames with higher uncertainty receive lower attention. Based on this idea, we present U3-xi, a comprehensive framework designed to produce more reliable and interpretable uncertainty estimates for speaker embeddings. Specifically, we introduce several strategies for uncertainty supervision. First, we propose speaker-level uncertainty supervision via a Stochastic Variance Loss, where the distance between an utterance embedding and its corresponding speaker centroid serves as a pseudo ground truth for uncertainty learning. Second, we incorporate global-level uncertainty supervision by injecting the predicted uncertainty into the sof tmax scale during training. This adaptive scaling mechanism adjusts the sharpness of the decision boundary according to sample difficulty, providing global guidance. Third, we redesign the uncertainty estimation module by integrating a Transformer encoder with multi-view self-attention, enabling the model to capture rich local and long-range temporal dependencies. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that U3-xi is model-agnostic and can be seamlessly applied to various speaker encoders. In particular, when applied to ECAPA-TDNN, it achieves 21.1% and 15.57% relative improvements on the VoxCeleb1 test sets in terms of EER and minDCF, respectively.

Off-policy actor-critic methods in reinforcement learning train a critic with temporal-difference updates and use it as a learning signal for the policy (actor). This design typically achieves higher sample efficiency than purely on-policy methods. However, critic networks tend to overestimate value estimates systematically. This is often addressed by introducing a pessimistic bias based on uncertainty estimates. Current methods employ ensembling to quantify the critic's epistemic uncertainty-uncertainty due to limited data and model ambiguity-to scale pessimistic updates. In this work, we propose a new algorithm called Stochastic Actor-Critic (STAC) that incorporates temporal (one-step) aleatoric uncertainty-uncertainty arising from stochastic transitions, rewards, and policy-induced variability in Bellman targets-to scale pessimistic bias in temporal-difference updates, rather than relying on epistemic uncertainty. STAC uses a single distributional critic network to model the temporal return uncertainty, and applies dropout to both the critic and actor networks for regularization. Our results show that pessimism based on a distributional critic alone suffices to mitigate overestimation, and naturally leads to risk-averse behavior in stochastic environments. Introducing dropout further improves training stability and performance by means of regularization. With this design, STAC achieves improved computational efficiency using a single distributional critic network.

We present UncertaintyRAG, a novel approach for long-context Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) that utilizes Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)-based span uncertainty to estimate similarity between text chunks. This span uncertainty enhances model calibration, improving robustness and mitigating semantic inconsistencies introduced by random chunking. Leveraging this insight, we propose an efficient unsupervised learning technique to train the retrieval model, alongside an effective data sampling and scaling strategy. UncertaintyRAG outperforms baselines by 2.03% on LLaMA-2-7B, achieving state-of-the-art results while using only 4% of the training data compared to other advanced open-source retrieval models under distribution shift settings. Our method demonstrates strong calibration through span uncertainty, leading to improved generalization and robustness in long-context RAG tasks. Additionally, UncertaintyRAG provides a lightweight retrieval model that can be integrated into any large language model with varying context window lengths, without the need for fine-tuning, showcasing the flexibility of our approach.

Large language models (LLMs) provide strong performance across a wide range of tasks but are typically hosted on centralised cloud infrastructure, incurring significant bandwidth, latency, and privacy costs. In contrast, small language models (SLMs) can run on edge devices but have limited capability and robustness. This paper introduces SWARM-LLM, a routing and collaboration layer that coordinates a small swarm of edge-hosted SLMs with an optional cloud foundation model (FM). SWARM-LLM decides, for each query, whether to answer locally, collaborate with peer SLMs, or "summon" a cloud FM, using lightweight uncertainty estimates and safety signals. We implement a working prototype on commodity hardware with three heterogeneous SLMs and a 70B-parameter cloud FM accessed via API, and evaluate it on a controlled study workload of easy, hard, and safety-oriented queries. Our results show that SWARM-LLM substantially improves performance on hard questions compared to an edge-only deployment, while limiting cloud usage to roughly one quarter of queries, illustrating a practical trade-off between accuracy, latency, and cost for privacy-conscious edge deployments. The implementation code is available at the GitHub repository https://github.com/mdahshan/swarm_llm.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) predict through human-interpretable concepts, but they typically output point concept probabilities that conflate epistemic uncertainty (reducible model underspecification) with aleatoric uncertainty (irreducible input ambiguity). This makes concept-level uncertainty hard to interpret and, more importantly, hard to act upon. We introduce CREDENCE (Credal Ensemble Concept Estimation), a CBM framework that decomposes concept uncertainty by construction. CREDENCE represents each concept as a credal prediction (a probability interval), derives epistemic uncertainty from disagreement across diverse concept heads, and estimates aleatoric uncertainty via a dedicated ambiguity output trained to match annotator disagreement when available. The resulting signals support prescriptive decisions: automate low-uncertainty cases, prioritize data collection for high-epistemic cases, route high-aleatoric cases to human review, and abstain when both are high. Across several tasks, we show that epistemic uncertainty is positively associated with prediction errors, whereas aleatoric uncertainty closely tracks annotator disagreement, providing guidance beyond error correlation. Our implementation is available at the following link: https://github.com/Tankiit/Credal_Sets/tree/ensemble-credal-cbm

Object detection and multiple object tracking (MOT) are essential components of self-driving systems. Accurate detection and uncertainty quantification are both critical for onboard modules, such as perception, prediction, and planning, to improve the safety and robustness of autonomous vehicles. Collaborative object detection (COD) has been proposed to improve detection accuracy and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the viewpoints of multiple agents. However, little attention has been paid to how to leverage the uncertainty quantification from COD to enhance MOT performance. In this paper, as the first attempt to address this challenge, we design an uncertainty propagation framework called MOT-CUP. Our framework first quantifies the uncertainty of COD through direct modeling and conformal prediction, and propagates this uncertainty information into the motion prediction and association steps. MOT-CUP is designed to work with different collaborative object detectors and baseline MOT algorithms. We evaluate MOT-CUP on V2X-Sim, a comprehensive collaborative perception dataset, and demonstrate a 2% improvement in accuracy and a 2.67X reduction in uncertainty compared to the baselines, e.g. SORT and ByteTrack. In scenarios characterized by high occlusion levels, our MOT-CUP demonstrates a noteworthy 4.01% improvement in accuracy. MOT-CUP demonstrates the importance of uncertainty quantification in both COD and MOT, and provides the first attempt to improve the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty in MOT based on COD through uncertainty propagation. Our code is public on https://coperception.github.io/MOT-CUP/.

Industrial and medical anomaly detection faces critical challenges from data scarcity and prohibitive annotation costs, particularly in evolving manufacturing and healthcare settings. To address this, we propose CoZAD, a novel zero-shot anomaly detection framework that integrates soft confident learning with meta-learning and contrastive feature representation. Unlike traditional confident learning that discards uncertain samples, our method assigns confidence-based weights to all training data, preserving boundary information while emphasizing prototypical normal patterns. The framework quantifies data uncertainty through IQR-based thresholding and model uncertainty via covariance based regularization within a Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning. Contrastive learning creates discriminative feature spaces where normal patterns form compact clusters, enabling rapid domain adaptation. Comprehensive evaluation across 10 datasets spanning industrial and medical domains demonstrates state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing methods on 6 out of 7 industrial benchmarks with notable improvements on texture-rich datasets (99.2% I-AUROC on DTD-Synthetic, 97.2% on BTAD) and pixellevel localization (96.3% P-AUROC on MVTec-AD). The framework eliminates dependence on vision-language alignments or model ensembles, making it valuable for resourceconstrained environments requiring rapid deployment.

Rate control algorithms are at the heart of video conferencing platforms, determining target bitrates that match dynamic network characteristics for high quality. Recent data-driven strategies have shown promise for this challenging task, but the performance degradation they introduce during training has been a nonstarter for many production services, precluding adoption. This paper aims to bolster the practicality of data-driven rate control by presenting an alternative avenue for experiential learning: leveraging purely existing telemetry logs produced by the incumbent algorithm in production. We observe that these logs contain effective decisions, although often at the wrong times or in the wrong order. To realize this approach despite the inherent uncertainty that log-based learning brings (i.e., lack of feedback for new decisions), our system, Mowgli, combines a variety of robust learning techniques (i.e., conservatively reasoning about alternate behavior to minimize risk and using a richer model formulation to account for environmental noise). Across diverse networks (emulated and real-world), Mowgli outperforms the widely deployed GCC algorithm, increasing average video bitrates by 15-39% while reducing freeze rates by 60-100%.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have recently emerged as a strong alternative to autoregressive models by enabling parallel text generation. To improve inference efficiency and KV-cache compatibility, prior work commonly adopts block-based diffusion, decoding tokens block by block. However, this paradigm suffers from a structural limitation that we term Boundary-Induced Context Truncation (BICT): undecoded tokens near block boundaries are forced to commit without access to nearby future context, even when such context could substantially reduce uncertainty. This limitation degrades decoding certainty and generation quality, especially for tasks requiring precise reasoning, such as mathematical problem solving and code generation. We propose Deferred Commitment Decoding (DCD), a novel, training-free decoding strategy that mitigates this issue. DCD maintains a certainty-aware sliding window over masked tokens, resolving low-uncertainty tokens early while deferring high-uncertainty tokens until sufficient contextual evidence becomes available. Extensive experiments across multiple diffusion language models, benchmarks, and caching configurations show that DCD improves generation accuracy by 1.73% with comparable time on average compared to fixed block-based diffusion methods, with the most significant improvement reaching 16.5%. These results demonstrate that deferring token commitment based on uncertainty is a simple yet effective principle for improving both the quality and efficiency of diffusion language model decoding.

The discourse around toxicity and LLMs in NLP largely revolves around detection tasks. This work shifts the focus to evaluating LLMs' reasoning about toxicity -- from their explanations that justify a stance -- to enhance their trustworthiness in downstream tasks. Despite extensive research on explainability, it is not straightforward to adopt existing methods to evaluate free-form toxicity explanation due to their over-reliance on input text perturbations, among other challenges. To account for these, we propose a novel, theoretically-grounded multi-dimensional criterion, Human-Aligned Faithfulness (HAF), that measures the extent to which LLMs' free-form toxicity explanations align with those of a rational human under ideal conditions. We develop six metrics, based on uncertainty quantification, to comprehensively evaluate \haf of LLMs' toxicity explanations with no human involvement, and highlight how "non-ideal" the explanations are. We conduct several experiments on three Llama models (of size up to 70B) and an 8B Ministral model on five diverse toxicity datasets. Our results show that while LLMs generate plausible explanations to simple prompts, their reasoning about toxicity breaks down when prompted about the nuanced relations between the complete set of reasons, the individual reasons, and their toxicity stances, resulting in inconsistent and nonsensical responses. We open-source our code and LLM-generated explanations at https://github.com/uofthcdslab/HAF.

While the uncertainty in generation and demand increases, accurately estimating the dynamic characteristics of power systems becomes crucial for employing the appropriate control actions to maintain their stability. In our previous work, we have shown that Bayesian Physics-informed Neural Networks (BPINNs) outperform conventional system identification methods in identifying the power system dynamic behavior under measurement noise. This paper takes the next natural step and addresses the more significant challenge, exploring how BPINN perform in estimating power system dynamics under increasing uncertainty from many Inverter-based Resources (IBRs) connected to the grid. These introduce a different type of uncertainty, compared to noisy measurements. The BPINN combines the advantages of Physics-informed Neural Networks (PINNs), such as inverse problem applicability, with Bayesian approaches for uncertainty quantification. We explore the BPINN performance on a wide range of systems, starting from a single machine infinite bus (SMIB) system and 3-bus system to extract important insights, to the 14-bus CIGRE distribution grid, and the large IEEE 118-bus system. We also investigate approaches that can accelerate the BPINN training, such as pretraining and transfer learning. Throughout this paper, we show that in presence of uncertainty, the BPINN achieves orders of magnitude lower errors than the widely popular method for system identification SINDy and significantly lower errors than PINN, while transfer learning helps reduce training time by up to 80 %.